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mentionmarket
Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xc3ac…b964 with our methodology badges per row.
Resolved trades
21
lifetime
PnL per $
-20%
historical realized
Win rate
39.1%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$828.1K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails
The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 21 resolved trades · -20% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.
Trades (90d)
44
Distinct markets
29
Volume (90d)
$1.15M
avg $26.0K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$1.15M / $0
net direction
Recent trades
last 44 · 90d window| When | Market | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 06:56 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.416 | $10.4K | — |
| Jul 18, 08:45 PM | Will France win on 2026-07-18? | BUY YES | 0.560 | $86.2K | — |
| Jul 18, 08:45 PM | Will France win on 2026-07-18? | BUY YES | 0.560 | $326.4K | — |
| Jul 18, 08:45 PM | Will France win on 2026-07-18? | BUY YES | 0.560 | $1,901 | — |
| Jul 15, 08:55 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.582 | $2,008 | — |
| Jul 15, 08:54 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.582 | $221.2K | — |
| Jul 14, 10:43 PM | Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | BUY NO | 0.900 | $4,198 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 08:24 PM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.389 | $75.0K | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 13, 08:19 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.173 | $2,688 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 12, 04:34 AM | Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | BUY NO | 0.860 | $1,519 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 12, 04:34 AM | Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | BUY NO | 0.530 | $1,237 | — |
| Jul 10, 06:24 PM | Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | BUY NO | 0.480 | $14.7K | — |
| Jul 6, 06:57 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $6,173 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 6, 06:55 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.127 | $1,905 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 6, 05:12 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $3,108 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 6, 05:08 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.129 | $3,646 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 6, 05:06 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.128 | $1,804 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 6, 04:54 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.126 | $1,001 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 4, 01:18 AM | Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? | BUY NO | 0.320 | $79.3K | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 4, 01:18 AM | Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? | BUY NO | 0.320 | $26.3K | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 30, 12:13 PM | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $30.5K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 10:37 AM | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $30.5K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 04:18 PM | 0x85a6290f | BUY YES | 0.560 | $23.9K | — |
| May 24, 12:12 AM | 0xe32d163f | BUY NO | 0.320 | $5,768 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 12:06 AM | 0x98de4247 | BUY NO | 0.780 | $10.2K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 12:05 AM | 0x45a8786f | BUY NO | 0.490 | $13.5K | — |
| May 23, 08:16 PM | 0x1620351c | BUY YES | 0.290 | $4,834 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 23, 08:16 PM | 0x9ff2c3c6 | BUY NO | 0.550 | $4,806 | — |
| May 23, 06:41 PM | 0x64e355e9 | BUY NO | 0.510 | $25.5K | — |
| May 17, 06:20 PM | 0x303f1601 | BUY NO | 0.630 | $7,915 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 06:14 PM | 0x15a8fb9d | BUY YES | 0.460 | $1,495 | — |
| May 17, 06:06 PM | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? | BUY YES | 0.610 | $2,143 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 06:00 PM | 0xdec14bfc | BUY YES | 0.420 | $1,294 | — |
| May 17, 04:19 PM | 0x0ebd0580 | BUY YES | 0.460 | $4,430 | — |
| May 17, 04:14 PM | 0x0a6ad751 | BUY NO | 0.530 | $8,092 | — |
| May 17, 01:45 PM | 0x1fa4b0ca | BUY YES | 0.530 | $20.7K | — |
| May 15, 06:15 PM | 0xd7f854b8 | BUY YES | 0.390 | $19.5K | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 15, 06:05 PM | 0xd7f854b8 | BUY YES | 0.370 | $15.8K | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 13, 04:33 PM | 0xc9ab36f1 | BUY YES | 0.440 | $16.0K | — |
| May 13, 04:10 PM | 0x8bd2b182 | BUY NO | 0.650 | $1,935 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 06:47 PM | 0x0e7f698c | BUY NO | 0.620 | $12.4K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 06:44 PM | 0x0e7f698c | BUY NO | 0.620 | $5,421 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 06:43 PM | 0x0e7f698c | BUY NO | 0.620 | $6,966 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 04:42 PM | 0x41695eaa | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,194 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
Markets active in
29 markets · sorted by volume| Market | Category | Trades | Volume | Net BUY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | Other | 3 | $414.4K | +$414.4K |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Tech | 9 | $251.2K | +$251.2K |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? | Other | 2 | $105.6K | +$105.6K |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Other | 1 | $75.0K | +$75.0K |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | Tech | 2 | $61.0K | +$61.0K |
| 0xd7f854b8 | — | 2 | $35.3K | +$35.3K |
| 0x64e355e9 | — | 1 | $25.5K | +$25.5K |
| 0x0e7f698c | — | 3 | $24.8K | +$24.8K |
| 0x85a6290f | — | 1 | $23.9K | +$23.9K |
| 0x1fa4b0ca | — | 1 | $20.7K | +$20.7K |
| 0xc9ab36f1 | — | 1 | $16.0K | +$16.0K |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | Other | 1 | $14.7K | +$14.7K |
| 0x45a8786f | — | 1 | $13.5K | +$13.5K |
| 0x98de4247 | — | 1 | $10.2K | +$10.2K |
| 0x0a6ad751 | — | 1 | $8,092 | +$8,092 |
| 0x303f1601 | — | 1 | $7,915 | +$7,915 |
| 0xe32d163f | — | 1 | $5,768 | +$5,768 |
| 0x1620351c | — | 1 | $4,834 | +$4,834 |
| 0x9ff2c3c6 | — | 1 | $4,806 | +$4,806 |
| 0x0ebd0580 | — | 1 | $4,430 | +$4,430 |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | Other | 1 | $4,198 | +$4,198 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Other | 1 | $2,688 | +$2,688 |
| Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? | Tech | 1 | $2,143 | +$2,143 |
| 0x8bd2b182 | — | 1 | $1,935 | +$1,935 |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | Other | 1 | $1,519 | +$1,519 |
| 0x15a8fb9d | — | 1 | $1,495 | +$1,495 |
| 0xdec14bfc | — | 1 | $1,294 | +$1,294 |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | Other | 1 | $1,237 | +$1,237 |
| 0x41695eaa | — | 1 | $1,194 | +$1,194 |