Back to whale feed

machbut

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xc2de…6781 with our methodology badges per row.

0xc2de93c744f3406ff4a67623913d3c6df4116781·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
89
lifetime
PnL per $
-5%
historical realized
Win rate
60.1%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$766.9K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 89 resolved trades · -5% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
92
Distinct markets
9
Volume (90d)
$779.5K
avg $8,473 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$478.1K / $301.5K
net direction

Recent trades

last 92 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 19, 09:45 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.931$17.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:44 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.940$2,499Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:36 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.620$7,660— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:34 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.641$8,900— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:32 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.650$9,079— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:32 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.650$2,532— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:24 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.674$2,042— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:24 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.680$19.2K— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:14 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.740$36.3K— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:08 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.603$6,045— (SELL)
Jul 19, 08:22 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.599$4,404— (SELL)
Jul 18, 11:57 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.591$97.4K
Jul 18, 11:33 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.591$11.3K
Jul 18, 11:32 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.591$16.8K
Jul 18, 11:31 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.591$8,865
Jul 18, 10:28 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?SELL YES0.726$1,317— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:25 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?SELL YES0.719$6,471— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:24 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?SELL YES0.698$3,742— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:24 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?SELL YES0.698$2,655— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:24 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?SELL YES0.695$8,408— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:23 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?SELL YES0.688$1,069— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:23 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?SELL YES0.687$1,068— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:23 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?SELL YES0.688$7,829— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:21 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?SELL YES0.690$15.9K— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:21 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?SELL YES0.692$9,779— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:21 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?SELL YES0.698$3,191— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:21 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?SELL YES0.701$1,496— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:21 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?SELL YES0.700$9,866— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:21 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?SELL YES0.700$8,174— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:21 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?SELL YES0.696$3,774— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:21 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?SELL YES0.690$5,948— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:21 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?SELL YES0.692$3,423— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:20 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?SELL YES0.700$3,007— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:13 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?BUY YES0.890$4,461Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:11 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?BUY YES0.888$7,058Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:11 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?BUY YES0.887$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:10 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?BUY YES0.943$3,719Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:04 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?BUY YES0.971$10.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:03 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?BUY YES0.970$4,946Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:03 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?BUY YES0.970$11.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:02 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?BUY YES0.970$30.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:57 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?BUY YES0.971$1,294Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:57 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?BUY YES0.970$11.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:56 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?BUY YES0.970$1,198Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:56 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?BUY YES0.970$5,095Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:55 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?BUY YES0.970$6,023Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:55 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?BUY YES0.972$1,576Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:55 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?BUY YES0.971$10.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:55 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?BUY YES0.971$8,906Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:55 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?BUY YES0.970$32.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 07:17 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.591$62.1K
Jul 15, 12:30 AMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.225$2,312— (SELL)
Jul 15, 12:30 AMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.226$4,443— (SELL)
Jul 14, 08:42 PMWill Spain win on 2026-07-14?BUY YES0.920$1,675Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 08:42 PMWill Spain win on 2026-07-14?BUY YES0.927$17.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 02:54 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.217$8,275— (SELL)
Jul 8, 01:45 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.188$7,130Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 02:25 PMWill Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.058$2,588Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 02:23 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.148$11.5K— (SELL)
Jul 6, 08:46 PMWill Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.049$1,901
Jul 6, 08:44 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.149$3,363Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 6, 08:43 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.146$11.4KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jul 6, 08:43 PMWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.035$3,332
Jun 10, 03:43 AMWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY NO0.852$7,573Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 03:43 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.622$16.3K— (SELL)
Jun 9, 07:52 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.621$5,629— (SELL)
Jun 9, 07:51 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.622$4,593— (SELL)
Jun 9, 05:54 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.620$3,767— (SELL)
Jun 9, 05:31 PMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL NO0.622$5,572— (SELL)
Jun 9, 05:29 PMWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY NO0.853$2,555Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 05:29 PMWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY NO0.852$2,481Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 05:28 PMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL NO0.622$4,244— (SELL)
Jun 9, 05:27 PMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL NO0.623$8,490— (SELL)
Jun 9, 05:27 PMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL NO0.624$5,565— (SELL)
Jun 9, 05:27 PMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL NO0.625$1,057— (SELL)
Jun 9, 05:34 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL NO0.620$5,799— (SELL)
Jun 9, 05:34 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.620$3,956— (SELL)
Jun 9, 05:34 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL NO0.625$1,037— (SELL)
Jun 9, 05:34 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL NO0.626$1,352— (SELL)
Jun 9, 05:33 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL NO0.627$2,112— (SELL)
Jun 9, 05:33 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL NO0.628$2,536— (SELL)
Jun 9, 05:32 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.630$1,040— (SELL)
Jun 9, 05:32 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.631$8,568— (SELL)
Jun 3, 03:51 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.361$4,131Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 03:50 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.360$1,456Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 03:50 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.359$8,401Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 03:49 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.358$3,928Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 03:49 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.356$6,447Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 03:49 PMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.355$13.0KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 03:49 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.355$2,037Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 03:49 PMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.354$2,488Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 03:49 PMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.353$5,338Killed band — neutral expectation

Markets active in

9 markets · sorted by volume