| Jun 22, 01:30 AM | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.985 | $1,477 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 02:01 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.868 | $36.8K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 01:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $13.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 10:03 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.552 | $4,639 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 10:03 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL NO | 0.608 | $7,460 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 04:03 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $20.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:02 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.898 | $8,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:02 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.897 | $2,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:01 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.595 | $5,000 | —— |
| Jun 12, 04:01 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY NO | 0.730 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:01 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY NO | 0.722 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:01 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY NO | 0.714 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:00 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.897 | $20.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 01:38 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.845 | $13.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 12:48 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL NO | 0.633 | $6,872 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 12:43 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.837 | $3,287 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 12:43 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.841 | $5,410 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 12:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.856 | $10.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 12:07 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL NO | 0.650 | $5,688 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 03:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $1,328 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 03:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.959 | $4,795 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 03:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $1,661 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 03:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $1,750 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 03:47 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.955 | $3,228 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 03:47 PM | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.992 | $17.5K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 03:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.954 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 03:44 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $2,325 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 11:50 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $2,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 05:00 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $6,773 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:29 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY NO | 0.840 | $4,369 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:26 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $4,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:23 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $2,070 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 04:07 AM | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $1,410 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 04:04 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.977 | $2,784 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 04:04 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.977 | $4,885 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 08:53 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $1,220 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 08:49 AM | 0x366f8964 | BUY NO | 0.958 | $1,595 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 12:48 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $6,582 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 12:48 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $4,650 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 12:45 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.974 | $7,842 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 12:44 PM | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $17.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 12:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $4,350 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 09:32 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY NO | 0.740 | $1,850 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 09:32 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $5,288 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 06:00 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY NO | 0.730 | $1,460 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 05:59 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $4,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 05:59 AM | 0x366f8964 | BUY NO | 0.950 | $4,750 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 11:20 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY NO | 0.720 | $4,320 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 11:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $4,250 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 11:19 PM | 0x366f8964 | BUY NO | 0.940 | $4,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 10:59 AM | 0x366f8964 | BUY NO | 0.940 | $4,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $8,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $4,350 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 06:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $7,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 06:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.982 | $5,207 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 02:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $4,800 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:45 PM | 0xbcacd5a0 | SELL NO | 0.976 | $8,051 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:43 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.407 | $3,355 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.410 | $1,129 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 07:00 AM | 0x789c947a | BUY NO | 0.995 | $2,488 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 07:41 PM | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY NO | 0.934 | $2,802 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 07:40 PM | 0x53098776 | BUY NO | 0.977 | $2,145 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 06:52 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $1,245 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 06:48 PM | 0x53098776 | BUY NO | 0.970 | $13.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 04:13 PM | 0x53098776 | BUY NO | 0.931 | $2,742 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 04:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $1,170 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 04:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $1,170 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 04:03 PM | 0x53098776 | BUY NO | 0.931 | $2,793 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 11:34 AM | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY NO | 0.933 | $2,799 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 09:17 PM | 0xc5331256 | BUY NO | 0.990 | $9,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 09:16 PM | 0x667c01a1 | BUY NO | 0.930 | $4,127 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 09:15 PM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |