| Jun 12, 02:01 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.868 | $36.8K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 01:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $13.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 10:03 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.552 | $4,639 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 10:03 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.608 | $7,460 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 04:03 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $20.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:02 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.898 | $8,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:02 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.897 | $2,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:01 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.595 | $5,000 | —— |
| Jun 12, 04:01 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:01 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.722 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:01 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.714 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 04:00 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.897 | $20.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 01:38 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.845 | $13.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 12:48 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.633 | $6,872 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 12:43 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.837 | $3,287 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 12:43 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.841 | $5,410 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 12:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.856 | $10.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 12:07 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.650 | $5,688 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 03:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $1,328 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 03:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.959 | $4,795 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 03:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $1,661 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 03:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $1,750 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 03:47 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.955 | $3,228 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 03:47 PM | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.992 | $17.5K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 03:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.954 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 03:44 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $2,325 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 11:50 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $2,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 05:00 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $6,773 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:29 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $4,369 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:26 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $4,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:23 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $2,070 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 04:07 AM | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $1,410 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 04:04 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.977 | $2,784 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 04:04 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.977 | $4,885 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 08:53 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $1,220 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 08:49 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.958 | $1,595 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 12:48 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $6,582 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 12:48 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $4,650 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 12:45 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.974 | $7,842 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 12:44 PM | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $17.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 12:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $4,350 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 09:32 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $1,850 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 09:32 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $5,288 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 06:00 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $1,460 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 05:59 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $4,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 05:59 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $4,750 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 11:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $4,320 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 11:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $4,250 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 11:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $4,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 10:59 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $4,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $8,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $4,350 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 06:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $7,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 06:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.982 | $5,207 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 02:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $4,800 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:45 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.976 | $8,051 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:43 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.407 | $3,355 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.410 | $1,129 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 07:00 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $2,488 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 07:41 PM | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY NO | 0.934 | $2,802 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 07:40 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.977 | $2,145 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 06:52 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $1,245 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 06:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $13.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 04:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.931 | $2,742 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 04:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $1,170 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 04:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $1,170 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 04:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.931 | $2,793 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 11:34 AM | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY NO | 0.933 | $2,799 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 09:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $9,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 09:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $4,127 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 09:15 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 10:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $1,020 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 08:46 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $6,039 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 08:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.710 | $1,775 | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 07:08 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $1,380 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 06:01 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $2,325 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 06:01 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $4,650 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 06:00 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $1,840 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 01:41 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $1,760 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 01:41 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $6,003 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 03:01 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $4,750 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 24, 11:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $2,250 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 03:46 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $4,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 03:46 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $2,880 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 02:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $2,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 01:41 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.790 | $1,306 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 10:42 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $2,150 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 10:35 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $4,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 01:56 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.747 | $5,489 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 12:31 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.741 | $3,706 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 12:28 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.743 | $2,971 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 12:27 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.870 | $16.5K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 20, 11:40 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $8,800 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 20, 09:58 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.709 | $1,774 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 20, 06:39 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.911 | $4,557 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 20, 06:38 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $1,680 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 20, 06:31 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $4,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 03:03 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.951 | $4,756 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 19, 02:30 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.645 | $2,357 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 19, 02:28 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.583 | $1,166 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 19, 02:27 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.585 | $1,170 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 19, 11:46 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.660 | $1,122 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 19, 11:30 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.949 | $4,745 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 19, 11:17 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.949 | $4,745 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 10:30 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.600 | $2,000 | —— |
| Apr 18, 10:30 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.598 | $3,000 | —— |
| Apr 18, 10:28 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.368 | $1,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 18, 10:25 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.686 | $3,544 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 10:25 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.565 | $11.5K | —— |
| Apr 17, 11:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $1,420 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 12:05 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.331 | $1,491 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 15, 12:05 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.323 | $3,754 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 15, 12:04 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.523 | $10.2K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 04:20 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $1,008 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 11:29 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.612 | $1,079 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 10, 02:17 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $5,437 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 10, 02:17 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL NO | 0.810 | $2,805 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 10, 02:36 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $2,918 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 03:55 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $6,007 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 05:34 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $1,068 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 01:03 AM | 0x01ffd0ac | SELL NO | 0.640 | $2,039 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 12:15 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $7,720 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 11:44 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.016 | $1,000 | —— |
| Apr 7, 11:38 PM | 0x9e570fa9 | SELL NO | 0.761 | $8,074 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 07:25 AM | 0x4c5701bc | SELL NO | 0.969 | $1,292 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 08:48 AM | 0x10d4b55e | BUY NO | 0.960 | $2,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 08:41 AM | 0x10d4b55e | BUY NO | 0.960 | $5,760 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 08:41 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $1,369 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 08:40 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.959 | $1,975 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 08:40 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.958 | $1,377 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 08:40 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.720 | $3,960 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 08:39 AM | 0x773abaa5 | SELL NO | 0.818 | $8,999 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 5, 11:52 PM | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.850 | $1,221 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 10:34 AM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.987 | $5,268 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 10:30 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $2,025 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 06:28 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $1,620 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 06:26 AM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY NO | 0.940 | $4,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 03:46 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $4,100 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 03:46 AM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.984 | $1,968 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 03:45 AM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY NO | 0.940 | $1,880 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 03:43 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $1,580 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 03:42 AM | 0x10d4b55e | BUY NO | 0.900 | $1,846 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 11:01 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.680 | $1,419 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 04:27 AM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY NO | 0.890 | $2,670 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 02:25 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $1,052 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 02:23 AM | 0x9e570fa9 | BUY NO | 0.930 | $1,860 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 02:22 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $1,727 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 02:13 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $2,394 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 02:07 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $1,934 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 01:44 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $2,779 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 12:17 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.930 | $4,650 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 12:06 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.810 | $1,773 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 12:04 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.966 | $7,728 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 12:02 PM | 0x10d4b55e | BUY NO | 0.910 | $5,410 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 11:58 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $1,215 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 11:57 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,074 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 03:03 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $3,520 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 03:02 AM | 0x773abaa5 | SELL NO | 0.810 | $3,230 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 02:50 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $1,252 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 12:22 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $3,450 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 12:22 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $7,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 12:21 AM | 0x10d4b55e | BUY NO | 0.890 | $4,450 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 12:21 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 12:20 AM | 0x61ce3773 | SELL NO | 0.999 | $17.8K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 09:50 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $1,639 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 06:52 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.721 | $3,541 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 06:52 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $1,440 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 03:53 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $1,227 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 03:50 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $1,031 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 03:47 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $1,147 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 02:52 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.910 | $1,820 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 02:49 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $1,764 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 11:26 AM | 0x61ce3773 | SELL NO | 0.997 | $4,985 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 30, 03:44 AM | 0x4befb52f | BUY NO | 0.980 | $2,940 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 03:43 AM | 0x61ce3773 | SELL NO | 0.994 | $3,976 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 30, 03:41 AM | 0x61ce3773 | SELL NO | 0.994 | $1,491 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 11:35 AM | 0x9e570fa9 | BUY NO | 0.840 | $2,968 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 11:34 AM | 0x9e570fa9 | BUY NO | 0.840 | $1,008 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 11:34 AM | 0x61ce3773 | SELL NO | 0.994 | $3,976 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 11:33 AM | 0x4befb52f | BUY NO | 0.960 | $4,970 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 11:32 AM | 0x61ce3773 | SELL NO | 0.994 | $4,970 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 11:25 AM | 0x4befb52f | BUY NO | 0.960 | $2,982 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 11:24 AM | 0x61ce3773 | SELL NO | 0.994 | $2,982 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 11:23 AM | 0x4befb52f | BUY NO | 0.960 | $1,125 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 11:23 AM | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.850 | $2,125 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 08:20 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $1,557 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 08:15 AM | 0x9e570fa9 | BUY NO | 0.820 | $2,102 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 08:14 AM | 0x4befb52f | BUY NO | 0.950 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 08:14 AM | 0x61ce3773 | SELL NO | 0.993 | $9,930 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 08:13 AM | 0x4befb52f | BUY NO | 0.950 | $4,321 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 26, 10:42 AM | 0x4befb52f | BUY NO | 0.920 | $2,979 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 26, 10:41 AM | 0x61ce3773 | SELL NO | 0.993 | $2,979 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 26, 10:07 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $1,883 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 25, 09:16 AM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.850 | $2,975 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 24, 11:56 AM | 0x4befb52f | BUY NO | 0.930 | $5,824 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 24, 06:02 AM | 0x4befb52f | BUY NO | 0.910 | $2,275 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 24, 04:49 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $1,320 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 02:55 PM | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $2,102 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 02:53 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.880 | $1,760 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 02:52 PM | 0xcab77c44 | BUY NO | 0.890 | $4,387 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |