kitten147

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xbace…3429 with our methodology badges per row.

0xbace5a5a9e309d69164dc81788d353fed8d43429·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-23%

historical realized

Win rate

72.1%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$115.3K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 28 resolved trades · -23% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$335.0K

avg $3,453 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$224.6K / $110.4K

net direction

Recent trades

last 97 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 12, 04:59 PM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.910	$7,490	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 01:52 PM	Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.870	$1,740	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 08:27 AM	Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.910	$1,018	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 11:28 AM	Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.940	$4,700	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 05:05 PM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.012	$1,152	—
Jun 9, 04:44 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.830	$1,879	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 11:25 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.991	$4,688	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 10:46 PM	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	BUY NO	0.840	$1,680	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 10:43 PM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	BUY NO	0.770	$1,212	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 10:42 PM	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.986	$3,972	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 03:18 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.820	$8,127	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 06:26 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.840	$1,008	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 06:26 AM	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,335	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 06:18 AM	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.987	$1,307	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 10:32 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.720	$1,235	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 09:21 AM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.910	$4,994	— (SELL)
May 31, 12:51 PM	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	BUY NO	0.800	$1,533	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 02:37 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.690	$1,932	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 02:25 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	SELL NO	0.999	$2,497	— (SELL)
May 27, 11:42 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,181	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 02:17 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	SELL NO	0.800	$1,677	— (SELL)
May 23, 10:13 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,961	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 10:12 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	BUY NO	0.790	$1,656	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:21 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$3,766	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 08:07 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.910	$3,640	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 07:52 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.840	$2,100	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 11:05 PM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$6,962	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 10:56 PM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$13.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 10:09 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.760	$2,494	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 07:29 AM	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.960	$9,407	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 12:38 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	BUY NO	0.963	$2,318	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 11:21 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.920	$1,049	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 10:26 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.870	$1,155	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 09:18 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	BUY NO	0.890	$2,325	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 03:57 PM	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	BUY NO	0.690	$1,799	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 09:34 AM	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.920	$1,658	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 10:40 AM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$4,750	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 10:39 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	SELL NO	0.979	$4,895	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 10:34 AM	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	BUY YES	0.979	$1,505	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 10:06 AM	0x940f0142	BUY YES	0.949	$2,396	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 10:02 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	SELL NO	0.997	$1,586	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 10:02 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	SELL NO	0.998	$2,786	— (SELL)
Apr 28, 05:51 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	SELL NO	0.997	$2,783	— (SELL)
Apr 27, 10:21 PM	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$3,316	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 10:21 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	SELL NO	0.996	$7,920	— (SELL)
Apr 21, 11:18 PM	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	BUY NO	0.830	$1,969	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 11:18 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	SELL NO	0.880	$2,079	— (SELL)
Apr 17, 02:54 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,904	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 02:50 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.900	$2,734	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 02:22 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	BUY NO	0.950	$5,689	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 02:03 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	BUY NO	0.950	$11.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 12:53 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	BUY NO	0.906	$5,933	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 12:53 PM	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	SELL YES	0.985	$5,948	— (SELL)
Apr 17, 11:08 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	BUY NO	0.940	$15.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 03:52 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,027	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 02:10 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	BUY NO	0.955	$1,877	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 07:06 PM	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	BUY YES	0.971	$2,808	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 06:37 PM	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	BUY YES	0.960	$2,059	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 11:10 AM	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.888	$1,351	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 07:26 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	BUY NO	0.965	$7,227	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 05:18 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.920	$3,680	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 05:11 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	BUY NO	0.960	$3,587	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 05:11 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	BUY NO	0.959	$2,536	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 10, 08:09 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	BUY NO	0.960	$2,875	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 10, 08:09 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	BUY NO	0.960	$6,709	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 11:32 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$3,720	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 11:02 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	BUY NO	0.964	$1,968	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 10:40 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.920	$2,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 09:50 PM	0x7cb525e8	SELL NO	0.999	$20.0K	— (SELL)
Apr 4, 03:03 PM	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.950	$2,215	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 01:25 PM	1272493	BUY NO	0.910	$1,289	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 12:02 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.600	$1,300	—
Apr 2, 11:40 AM	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.854	$3,636	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 02:09 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.830	$1,248	— (SELL)
Apr 2, 02:07 AM	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.853	$3,265	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 01:20 AM	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.850	$2,015	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 12:16 AM	0x7cb525e8	SELL NO	0.999	$6,676	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 10:05 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,860	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 01:20 AM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.930	$4,650	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 01:20 AM	0x92d2f5f6	SELL NO	0.999	$1,926	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 01:19 AM	0xf64f880b	SELL NO	0.999	$1,212	— (SELL)
Mar 31, 11:02 PM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.930	$5,115	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 11:02 PM	0x2f863e0e	SELL NO	0.999	$5,103	— (SELL)
Mar 30, 07:04 PM	0x2f863e0e	SELL NO	0.998	$1,198	— (SELL)
Mar 27, 10:44 AM	0x57f71fc9	BUY NO	0.970	$1,933	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 10:40 AM	0x7cb525e8	SELL NO	0.994	$3,976	— (SELL)
Mar 27, 09:17 AM	0x97de9ade	BUY NO	0.960	$1,190	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 09:16 AM	0x7cb525e8	SELL NO	0.994	$1,193	— (SELL)
Mar 27, 12:49 AM	0x09ab0244	BUY NO	0.969	$1,419	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 11:55 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.880	$1,320	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 07:29 PM	Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	BUY NO	0.980	$2,263	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 01:35 PM	0x7cb525e8	SELL NO	0.990	$2,970	— (SELL)
Mar 23, 08:20 PM	0x09e8f0db	SELL NO	0.993	$2,240	— (SELL)
Mar 23, 08:18 PM	0x92d2f5f6	BUY NO	0.985	$1,335	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 23, 08:17 PM	Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	BUY NO	0.979	$2,639	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 23, 08:17 PM	0x09e8f0db	SELL NO	0.993	$3,972	— (SELL)
Mar 23, 09:04 AM	0x7cb525e8	SELL NO	0.990	$4,077	— (SELL)

Markets active in

47 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
0x7cb525e8	—	6	$38.9K	$-38,872
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	4	$32.5K	+$7,490
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Other	5	$30.4K	+$16.5K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Other	6	$24.7K	+$5,722
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	Other	5	$17.1K	+$5,983
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	Other	6	$16.8K	+$6,288
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Other	1	$15.8K	+$15.8K
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	Other	6	$15.4K	+$5,999
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Other	3	$14.5K	+$14.5K
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	4	$12.9K	+$12.9K
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Other	2	$11.6K	+$11.6K
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Other	3	$10.8K	$-1,081
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Other	4	$7,171	+$7,171
0x2f863e0e	—	2	$6,301	$-6,301
0x09e8f0db	—	2	$6,212	$-6,212
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Other	3	$5,937	+$3,441
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	1	$4,700	+$4,700
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Other	1	$3,766	+$3,766
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	Other	1	$3,680	+$3,680
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Other	2	$3,479	+$3,479
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Other	2	$3,334	$-21
0x92d2f5f6	—	2	$3,261	$-592
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Other	1	$2,639	+$2,639
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	2	$2,535	+$2,535
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Other	1	$2,497	$-2,497
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	1	$2,494	+$2,494
0x940f0142	—	1	$2,396	+$2,396
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Other	1	$2,325	+$2,325
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	Other	1	$2,318	+$2,318
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Other	1	$2,263	+$2,263

Showing top 30 by volume.