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antoinelegwr

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xbace…3429 with our methodology badges per row.

0xbace5a5a9e309d69164dc81788d353fed8d43429·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
60
lifetime
PnL per $
-11%
historical realized
Win rate
85.0%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$245.7K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 60 resolved trades · -11% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
88
Distinct markets
56
Volume (90d)
$333.4K
avg $3,788 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$277.6K / $55.7K
net direction

Recent trades

last 88 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 20, 09:34 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?BUY NO0.991$25.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 09:32 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?BUY NO0.991$24.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 08:57 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?BUY NO0.989$4,035Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 10:03 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY NO0.984$6,211Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 02:22 PMSpain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?BUY NO0.800$1,550Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:04 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY NO0.989$4,458Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 11:38 PMWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?BUY NO0.920$6,532Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:32 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?SELL YES0.428$1,552— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:30 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?SELL YES0.431$1,176— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:01 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?BUY YES0.970$6,400Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 11:03 PMWill N'Golo Kanté score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.978$3,045Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 08:43 PMWill Jules Koundé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.979$1,404Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 08:24 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.960$10,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 06:38 PMWill Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.979$1,475Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 05:13 PMWill Jules Koundé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.956$2,291Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 08:14 AMWill William Saliba score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.960$1,570Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 08:08 AMWill Pau Cubarsí score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.960$1,051Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 10:16 PMWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 in July?BUY NO0.810$1,300Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 09:58 PMWill Pau Cubarsí score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.948$1,394Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 03:18 PMWill Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?BUY NO0.890$1,214Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 11:17 PMWill Erling Haaland score 11+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.985$1,284Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 11:11 PMWill Erling Haaland score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.899$3,362Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 10:45 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.880$1,794Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 05:34 PMWorld Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?BUY NO0.988$15.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 01:27 PMWill Kylian Mbappe score 12+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.920$1,354Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 01:12 PMWill Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?BUY NO0.928$3,119Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 09:58 PMWill 6+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.969$1,296Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 11:01 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.842$3,368— (SELL)
Jul 7, 07:50 AMWill Any Team Participate in 3+ Penalty Shootouts in the Knockout Phase?BUY NO0.965$1,366Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 02:40 PMWill Portugal be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup?BUY NO0.939$1,929Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 10:21 PMWill Portugal be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup?BUY NO0.900$1,189Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 07:58 AMWorld Cup: Unbeaten Champion?BUY YES0.969$1,376Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 09:06 AMWill Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?BUY NO0.944$1,729Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 12:13 AMWill Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.810$3,291— (SELL)
Jul 4, 12:08 AMWorld Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?BUY NO0.980$6,712Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 09:11 AMWill Australia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.936$1,413Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 09:20 PMWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.972$7,052Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 08:29 PMWorld Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?BUY NO0.958$4,178Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 05:29 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.956$7,172Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 10:35 PMWill A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?BUY NO0.770$1,540Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 10:33 PMWill A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?BUY NO0.770$1,155Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 09:10 AMWill Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.900$1,035Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 09:09 AMWill Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.900$1,380Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 06:17 PMWill Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.790$1,096Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 12:10 PMWorld Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?BUY NO0.956$7,932Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 12:10 PMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?SELL NO0.999$9,965— (SELL)
Jun 28, 09:50 PMWill USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?BUY NO0.948$3,860Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 08:29 PMWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?BUY NO0.809$1,419Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 06:00 AMWill Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.900$2,095Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 05:35 AMWill USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?BUY NO0.945$3,998Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 05:30 AMWorld Cup: Unbeaten Champion?BUY YES0.910$1,780Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 12:01 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?SELL NO0.961$1,437— (SELL)
Jun 26, 01:25 PMWill Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?BUY YES0.450$1,035
Jun 24, 09:18 PMWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?BUY NO0.850$5,183Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 06:32 PMWill Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.997$3,812— (SELL)
Jun 22, 01:26 PMWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?BUY NO0.810$1,276Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 09:54 AMNetanyahu out by June 30?SELL NO0.995$4,519— (SELL)
Jun 12, 04:59 PMPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.910$7,490— (SELL)
Jun 11, 01:52 PMWill Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.870$1,740Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 08:27 AMWill Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.910$1,018Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 11:28 AMWill Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.940$4,700Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 05:05 PMWill Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.012$1,152
Jun 9, 04:44 PMWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.830$1,879Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 11:25 AMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?SELL NO0.991$4,688— (SELL)
Jun 5, 10:46 PMWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?BUY NO0.840$1,680Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 10:43 PMWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?BUY NO0.770$1,212Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 10:42 PMWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?SELL NO0.986$3,972— (SELL)
Jun 5, 03:18 PMWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.820$8,127Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 06:26 AMWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.840$1,008Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 06:26 AMWill Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.860$1,335Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 06:18 AMWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?SELL NO0.987$1,307— (SELL)
Jun 4, 10:32 AMWill Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.720$1,235Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 09:21 AMPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.910$4,994— (SELL)
May 31, 12:51 PMWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?BUY NO0.800$1,533Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 02:37 PMWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.690$1,932Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 02:25 PM0x1591b72dSELL NO0.999$2,497— (SELL)
May 27, 11:42 PMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?BUY NO0.930$1,181Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 02:17 PM0x4788c562SELL NO0.800$1,677— (SELL)
May 23, 10:13 PM0x4bab360aBUY NO0.860$1,961Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 10:12 PM0x4788c562BUY NO0.790$1,656Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:21 PMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?BUY NO0.930$3,766Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 08:07 AMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?BUY NO0.910$3,640Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 07:52 PMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?BUY NO0.840$2,100Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 11:05 PMPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.910$6,962Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 10:56 PMPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.910$13.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 10:09 AMWill Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.760$2,494Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 07:29 AMWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?BUY NO0.960$9,407Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 12:38 PM0xd8617701BUY NO0.963$2,318Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

56 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?Other3$54.1K+$54.1K
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?Other4$34.2K+$34.2K
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics4$32.5K+$7,490
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto4$12.9K+$12.9K
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other3$12.3K+$5,599
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Tech2$10.7K+$10.7K
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$10.0K+$10.0K
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?Other1$9,965$-9,965
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?Other1$9,407+$9,407
Will England win on 2026-07-18?Other3$9,129+$3,671
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?Other2$8,212+$8,212
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Other2$7,858+$7,858
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Other3$7,671+$7,671
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$7,052+$7,052
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Other2$5,280$-5,280
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Other2$4,847+$4,847
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$4,700+$4,700
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Other1$4,688$-4,688
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto2$4,526$-2,056
Netanyahu out by June 30?Other1$4,519$-4,519
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other3$4,511+$4,511
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$3,812$-3,812
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?Other1$3,766+$3,766
Will Jules Koundé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$3,696+$3,696
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?Other1$3,640+$3,640
Will Erling Haaland score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$3,362+$3,362
0x4788c5622$3,334$-21
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Other2$3,281+$3,281
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?Other2$3,156+$3,156
Will Portugal be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup?Other2$3,119+$3,119

Showing top 30 by volume.