Elias.Thornwell

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xa667…ceb3 with our methodology badges per row.

0xa66790e2b0075e73c3781ddaf1d0b875a3aaceb3·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-7%

historical realized

Win rate

88.9%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$119.5K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 48 resolved trades · -7% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

120

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$324.3K

avg $2,703 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$288.0K / $36.3K

net direction

Recent trades

last 120 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 18, 10:01 PM	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 95m?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,419	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:00 PM	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,387	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:59 PM	Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?	BUY NO	0.993	$2,178	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 07:02 PM	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 75m?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,898	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 10:07 PM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL NO	0.998	$2,154	— (SELL)
Jul 13, 09:01 PM	World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	BUY YES	0.997	$1,363	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 10:30 PM	Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?	BUY NO	0.995	$3,421	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 06:36 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL NO	0.996	$2,064	— (SELL)
Jul 8, 06:35 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,253	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 09:08 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY NO	0.983	$1,062	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 11:22 PM	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	BUY NO	0.964	$1,805	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 11:22 PM	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	BUY NO	0.964	$2,784	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 11:01 PM	Trump out as President before 2027?	BUY NO	0.920	$2,046	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 11:00 PM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,808	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 10:58 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY NO	0.940	$10.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 10:58 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.830	$2,650	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 10:50 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.900	$6,559	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 09:46 PM	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	BUY NO	0.933	$2,618	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 09:13 PM	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	BUY NO	0.932	$2,826	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 11:28 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.800	$3,856	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 11:27 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.997	$2,848	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 10:31 PM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.870	$3,562	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 09:31 PM	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	BUY YES	0.977	$2,007	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 09:31 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.800	$1,901	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 09:29 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	BUY NO	0.996	$1,218	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 10:01 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	BUY NO	0.994	$1,775	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 10:00 PM	Trump out as President by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,304	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:31 AM	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.992	$2,844	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:31 AM	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.994	$1,752	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:31 AM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.996	$1,955	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:30 AM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.996	$1,901	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:29 AM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.985	$1,937	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:29 AM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.754	$1,464	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:27 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,095	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:25 AM	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,962	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:25 AM	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,935	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:24 AM	Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,335	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:09 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June?	BUY NO	0.997	$5,236	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 09:20 PM	0x2cd24d17	BUY NO	0.973	$1,573	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 10:23 PM	0x2cd24d17	BUY NO	0.941	$2,764	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 10:23 PM	Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	BUY NO	0.976	$2,137	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 10:21 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.996	$4,872	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 10:20 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.978	$2,397	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 09:33 PM	0x366f8964	BUY NO	0.999	$1,803	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 09:58 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.967	$1,468	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 09:33 PM	0xb611b3a7	BUY YES	0.996	$1,053	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 09:28 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.988	$1,014	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 11:00 PM	Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,206	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 10:59 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.983	$1,501	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 10:57 PM	Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.810	$1,544	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 10:55 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.996	$16.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 08:35 PM	0x335243fe	BUY NO	0.999	$1,286	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 08:35 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.982	$2,393	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 09:26 PM	0xcddc048c	BUY NO	0.999	$1,248	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 06:21 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.997	$15.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 02:10 PM	0xdd1b321a	BUY NO	0.999	$4,936	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 01:41 PM	0x17e85726	BUY NO	0.999	$1,517	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 09:26 PM	0x789c947a	BUY NO	0.995	$1,902	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 10:24 PM	0x5341e90b	BUY NO	0.996	$1,342	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 10:24 PM	0x789c947a	BUY NO	0.991	$1,063	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 10:24 PM	0x97947fe2	BUY NO	0.998	$2,224	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 10:24 PM	0xaa145cf5	BUY NO	0.996	$5,881	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 09:19 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.980	$2,360	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 09:17 PM	0x5341e90b	BUY NO	0.989	$2,060	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 07:12 PM	0x7f4378c2	BUY NO	0.982	$2,120	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 07:12 PM	0xaa145cf5	BUY NO	0.981	$4,812	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 02:42 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.956	$1,159	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 02:42 PM	0x7f4378c2	BUY NO	0.977	$1,132	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 06:10 PM	0x6e235eb1	BUY NO	0.999	$1,219	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 06:06 PM	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$2,496	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 07:51 PM	0xe5c26c71	BUY NO	0.999	$1,499	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 07:49 PM	0x1db02ba5	BUY NO	0.999	$1,241	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 07:56 PM	0xcdc9fdf7	BUY NO	0.998	$3,947	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 07:56 PM	0x97947fe2	BUY NO	0.997	$13.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 08:04 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.976	$1,117	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 08:01 PM	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	BUY NO	0.923	$2,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 08:51 PM	0x6e235eb1	BUY NO	0.993	$2,020	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 08:48 PM	0xa1d97efb	BUY NO	0.944	$1,312	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 09:41 PM	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.946	$2,098	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 09:41 PM	Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.996	$1,802	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 09:40 PM	Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,470	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 09:40 PM	Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.993	$2,401	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 09:40 PM	Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,155	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 09:40 PM	Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.961	$1,830	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 09:40 PM	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.610	$1,717	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 09:40 PM	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,046	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 09:38 PM	0x2b1a5aa2	SELL NO	0.998	$1,418	— (SELL)
May 11, 09:38 PM	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL NO	0.824	$2,170	— (SELL)
May 11, 09:38 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.880	$1,605	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 09:37 PM	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	BUY NO	0.914	$1,550	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 10:38 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,474	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 10:37 PM	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,062	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 10:37 PM	Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	BUY NO	0.976	$1,049	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 10:36 PM	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL NO	0.946	$1,533	— (SELL)
May 10, 10:35 PM	0xffe381a8	BUY NO	0.992	$3,911	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 05:04 PM	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY YES	0.610	$1,597	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 05:01 PM	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL NO	0.945	$1,383	— (SELL)
May 10, 05:00 PM	0xffe381a8	BUY NO	0.987	$1,211	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 04:58 PM	Trump out as President before 2027?	BUY NO	0.890	$1,935	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 04:58 PM	0x789c947a	BUY NO	0.983	$3,908	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 04:58 PM	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	BUY NO	0.932	$1,526	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 04:57 PM	0xf9ba42b5	BUY NO	0.998	$2,619	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 04:57 PM	0xa1b91b95	BUY NO	0.994	$2,439	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 04:56 PM	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	SELL NO	0.981	$24.6K	— (SELL)
May 9, 08:39 PM	0x2b1a5aa2	BUY NO	0.999	$1,382	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 05:59 PM	0x9a7bd9d2	BUY NO	0.998	$1,042	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 05:59 PM	0x789c947a	BUY NO	0.981	$1,639	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 05:58 PM	0xebea0876	BUY NO	0.999	$2,237	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 05:58 PM	0x6e235eb1	BUY NO	0.998	$1,255	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 05:50 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	SELL NO	0.840	$1,032	— (SELL)
May 9, 09:44 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.975	$3,256	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 09:43 AM	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	BUY NO	0.937	$1,962	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 09:43 AM	0x9a7bd9d2	BUY NO	0.998	$1,042	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 09:43 AM	0x5e5482b1	BUY NO	0.996	$1,668	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 09:43 AM	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY NO	0.934	$4,725	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 09:42 AM	0x789c947a	BUY NO	0.982	$1,302	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 09:42 AM	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	BUY NO	0.912	$1,331	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 09:42 AM	0x2b1a5aa2	BUY NO	0.999	$1,789	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 09:41 AM	0xebea0876	BUY NO	0.998	$2,919	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 09:41 AM	0x6e235eb1	BUY NO	0.997	$1,311	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

81 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Other	1	$24.6K	$-24,575
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Crypto	1	$16.7K	+$16.7K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Other	1	$15.9K	+$15.9K
0x97947fe2	—	2	$15.5K	+$15.5K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Finance	3	$12.3K	+$12.3K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Other	1	$10.9K	+$10.9K
0xaa145cf5	—	2	$10.7K	+$10.7K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Finance	5	$10.6K	+$10.6K
0x789c947a	—	5	$9,814	+$9,814
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Sports	3	$7,642	+$1,809
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Other	4	$6,908	+$6,908
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Tech	3	$6,551	+$6,551
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Tech	2	$6,340	+$6,340
0x6e235eb1	—	4	$5,804	+$5,804
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Crypto	2	$5,445	+$5,445
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	2	$5,370	+$5,370
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June?	Crypto	1	$5,236	+$5,236
0xebea0876	—	2	$5,156	+$5,156
0xffe381a8	—	2	$5,122	+$5,122
0xdd1b321a	—	1	$4,936	+$4,936
0x2b1a5aa2	—	3	$4,589	+$1,753
0x2cd24d17	—	2	$4,337	+$4,337
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Finance	2	$4,056	$-253
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Finance	2	$4,019	$-109
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	2	$3,980	+$3,980
0xcdc9fdf7	—	1	$3,947	+$3,947
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 75m?	Other	1	$3,898	+$3,898
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?	Politics	1	$3,421	+$3,421
0x5341e90b	—	2	$3,402	+$3,402
0x7f4378c2	—	2	$3,252	+$3,252

Showing top 30 by volume.