| Jul 7, 04:49 PM | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.954 | $2,479 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 04:44 PM | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.957 | $6,699 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 04:43 PM | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.954 | $21.3K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 04:09 PM | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.985 | $9,625 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 01:49 PM | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $1,097 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 01:35 PM | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.995 | $4,279 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 01:07 PM | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.998 | $4,810 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 01:00 PM | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.998 | $7,932 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 12:46 PM | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $5,546 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 12:45 PM | Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,998 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 12:44 PM | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $13.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 12:44 PM | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $6,883 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 5, 10:44 AM | Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $2,543 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 4, 11:48 PM | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.141 | $1,139 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 1, 01:48 PM | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.998 | $21.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 01:46 PM | Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $17.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 01:45 PM | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $20.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 25, 08:23 AM | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.500 | $1,204 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 24, 09:23 AM | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.979 | $1,091 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 23, 01:22 PM | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 23, 01:20 PM | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 12:27 PM | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $4,729 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 05:07 AM | Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $37.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 04:25 AM | Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $7,685 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 12:25 PM | Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $3,284 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 12:21 PM | Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $1,260 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 12:21 PM | Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 12:10 PM | Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $3,604 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 12:09 PM | Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | BUY YES | 0.998 | $1,996 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 12:08 PM | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $10,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 12:05 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $5,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 12:03 PM | Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 12:02 PM | Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | BUY YES | 0.998 | $5,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 12:02 PM | Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | BUY YES | 0.993 | $1,589 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 11:35 AM | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $3,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 11:32 AM | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | BUY YES | 0.992 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 07:54 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.992 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 04:14 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.947 | $1,150 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 06:17 PM | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $12.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:21 PM | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:20 PM | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $10,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 04:14 AM | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $16.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 03:40 AM | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $10.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 03:38 AM | Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $17.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 01:20 PM | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $2,506 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 01:37 AM | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $3,066 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 12:18 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $3,987 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 09:42 AM | 0x9324cd36 | BUY NO | 0.999 | $4,589 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 03:23 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.998 | $1,098 | — (SELL) |