| Jun 21, 01:53 AM | Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | BUY YES | 0.900 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 08:09 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.980 | $1,782 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:10 PM | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.052 | $4,074 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 02:09 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.975 | $1,950 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:06 PM | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.052 | $4,108 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 02:06 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.079 | $7,979 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 02:05 PM | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.084 | $8,484 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 02:05 PM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.097 | $9,797 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 02:05 PM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.106 | $10.7K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 02:04 PM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.161 | $16.4K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 02:04 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.168 | $17.1K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 01:53 AM | Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $49.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 10:22 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | SELL NO | 0.941 | $2,323 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 07:00 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $34.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 06:59 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.993 | $34.7K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 07:40 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | BUY YES | 0.948 | $14.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 05:46 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $2,247 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 05:48 AM | Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? | SELL YES | 0.959 | $7,669 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 02:15 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.966 | $15.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 02:13 PM | Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? | SELL YES | 0.940 | $1,881 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 02:20 AM | Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? | BUY YES | 0.880 | $2,352 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 12:32 AM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $1,158 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 12:30 AM | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.756 | $1,039 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 12:21 AM | Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? | BUY YES | 0.900 | $2,796 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 08:02 PM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $1,638 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 07:57 PM | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY YES | 0.831 | $2,047 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 04:57 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $15.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 04:34 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $2,785 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 03:03 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $7,440 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 04:38 PM | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $20.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 05:45 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $4,906 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 05:22 AM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $2,704 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 05:09 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.989 | $11.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 01:14 AM | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $16.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 01:13 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $11.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 05:11 PM | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $9,930 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 05:10 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.993 | $9,930 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 05:03 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.974 | $29.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 05:02 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.974 | $18.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 05:02 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.975 | $3,955 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 05:02 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.975 | $4,291 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 07:14 PM | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY YES | 0.760 | $1,055 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 04:39 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.975 | $23.4K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 03:39 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.976 | $6,025 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 02:28 AM | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY YES | 0.979 | $1,718 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 02:27 AM | Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? | SELL YES | 0.975 | $1,287 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 09:50 PM | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY YES | 0.979 | $3,441 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 05:16 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.980 | $14.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 05:16 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.980 | $4,741 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 01:03 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.979 | $9,790 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 01:00 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.980 | $2,344 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 12:54 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.980 | $1,470 | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 09:20 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $8,075 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 09:15 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.965 | $6,517 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 09:01 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.968 | $23.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 05:52 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $9,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 04:58 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $1,994 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 04:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $9,970 | — (SELL) |
| May 13, 07:41 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $9,855 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 06:36 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.989 | $9,890 | — (SELL) |
| May 13, 04:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $27.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 04:50 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $59.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 12, 04:04 PM | Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.910 | $1,183 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 02:51 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $12.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 02:50 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.971 | $12.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 11:18 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $20.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 11:17 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.974 | $15.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 11:17 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.974 | $6,296 | — (SELL) |
| May 5, 04:52 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $2,604 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 04:36 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $38.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 04:00 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $28.3K | — (SELL) |
| May 3, 03:30 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $11.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 03:29 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $19.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 05:29 PM | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY YES | 0.987 | $3,552 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 02:34 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $12.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 02:11 AM | 0x6c31c73a | SELL NO | 0.999 | $9,990 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 03:44 PM | 0x6c31c73a | BUY NO | 0.988 | $9,880 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 20, 04:58 PM | 0x1e688e3b | BUY NO | 0.980 | $8,338 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 20, 04:24 AM | 0x1e688e3b | BUY NO | 0.960 | $4,217 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 05:25 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.993 | $60.3K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 16, 03:51 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $6,129 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 10, 09:35 PM | JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.986 | $1,373 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 10, 07:40 PM | JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.984 | $4,523 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 10, 07:32 PM | JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.980 | $3,401 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 10, 07:30 PM | US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.984 | $2,661 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 10, 06:07 AM | 0x34ae6ede | BUY YES | 0.992 | $8,146 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 10, 06:06 AM | Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.989 | $2,466 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 06:08 PM | 0x9e570fa9 | BUY NO | 0.955 | $4,644 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 09:29 PM | Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.988 | $2,056 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 09:29 PM | Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.880 | $1,159 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 09:27 PM | 0x9e570fa9 | BUY NO | 0.960 | $23.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 02:53 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $11.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 09:51 PM | Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.984 | $5,358 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 24, 04:28 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $13.1K | — (SELL) |