| Jul 19, 10:51 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.927 | $14.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 10:51 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.926 | $9,016 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 08:32 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.915 | $5,534 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 07:30 PM | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.940 | $9,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 18, 10:35 PM | Will England win on 2026-07-18? | SELL YES | 0.429 | $8,580 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 18, 09:55 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.942 | $38.6K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 17, 07:49 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.944 | $2,352 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 17, 06:41 PM | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL YES | 0.937 | $1,287 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 14, 09:10 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.571 | $1,028 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 06:19 PM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.327 | $33.4K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 06:19 PM | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.058 | $5,866 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 06:19 PM | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.028 | $2,826 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 06:18 PM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.150 | $15.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 06:18 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.185 | $18.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 06:13 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.840 | $13.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 05:52 PM | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.033 | $3,343 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 05:35 PM | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.058 | $1,332 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 7, 05:34 PM | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.057 | $3,841 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 7, 05:34 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.015 | $1,481 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 05:32 PM | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.089 | $4,472 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 6, 08:58 PM | Will Spain win on 2026-07-06? | BUY YES | 0.960 | $4,967 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 6, 02:25 AM | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $6,364 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 6, 01:59 AM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.109 | $2,616 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 6, 01:58 AM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.109 | $2,543 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 6, 01:53 AM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $1,149 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 5, 09:45 PM | Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 5, 09:42 PM | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.020 | $2,023 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 4, 09:39 PM | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.023 | $2,372 | —— |
| Jul 4, 06:47 PM | Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $24.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 4, 06:43 PM | Will Canada win on 2026-07-04? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $8,465 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 4, 03:26 AM | Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? | BUY YES | 0.950 | $6,216 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 07:54 PM | Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? | BUY NO | 0.978 | $12.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 07:16 PM | Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $10.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 04:26 AM | Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? | BUY YES | 0.950 | $14.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 2, 08:36 PM | Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? | BUY YES | 0.988 | $20.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 2, 08:33 PM | Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? | BUY YES | 0.985 | $7,071 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 09:40 PM | Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $1,908 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 09:16 PM | Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | BUY NO | 0.968 | $32.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 05:56 PM | Will England win on 2026-07-01? | BUY YES | 0.960 | $3,677 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 06:49 PM | Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $2,982 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 02:45 AM | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $11.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 02:38 AM | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? | BUY NO | 0.953 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 29, 10:27 PM | Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $4,192 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 29, 10:25 PM | Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 29, 06:59 PM | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | BUY YES | 0.980 | $29.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 28, 08:51 PM | Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $1,227 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 28, 02:38 AM | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? | BUY YES | 0.994 | $4,413 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 28, 01:16 AM | Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $6,112 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 27, 10:24 PM | Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $6,854 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 27, 10:23 PM | Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.930 | $1,214 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 27, 09:45 PM | Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.743 | $9,425 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 27, 01:52 AM | Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $2,720 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 27, 01:30 AM | Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $10,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 26, 04:45 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.820 | $2,050 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 26, 04:23 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.820 | $8,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 26, 02:39 AM | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL YES | 0.986 | $1,167 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 26, 12:32 AM | Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? | BUY YES | 0.994 | $3,605 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 25, 11:06 PM | Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? | BUY NO | 0.985 | $23.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 25, 09:46 PM | Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $29.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 25, 08:07 PM | Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $3,760 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 25, 02:40 AM | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? | BUY YES | 0.985 | $14.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 24, 10:21 PM | Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $17.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 24, 08:23 PM | Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $19.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 24, 08:18 PM | Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $19.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 24, 02:19 PM | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL YES | 0.987 | $5,429 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 24, 02:18 PM | Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL NO | 0.965 | $1,537 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 24, 02:16 PM | Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.860 | $1,204 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 24, 03:39 AM | Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $8,960 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 24, 12:16 AM | Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $20.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 23, 05:26 PM | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? | BUY YES | 0.994 | $9,813 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 23, 05:07 PM | Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $1,534 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 10:22 PM | Will France win on 2026-06-22? | SELL YES | 0.950 | $3,143 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 22, 06:41 PM | Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $9,869 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 06:25 PM | Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.940 | $11.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 06:24 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.983 | $6,663 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 22, 12:03 AM | Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $16.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 04:32 AM | Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $16.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 01:53 AM | Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | BUY YES | 0.900 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 08:09 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.980 | $1,782 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:10 PM | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.052 | $4,074 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 02:09 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.975 | $1,950 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 02:06 PM | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.052 | $4,108 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 02:06 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.079 | $7,979 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 02:05 PM | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.084 | $8,484 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 02:05 PM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.097 | $9,797 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 02:05 PM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.106 | $10.7K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 02:04 PM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.161 | $16.4K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 02:04 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.168 | $17.1K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 01:53 AM | Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $49.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 10:22 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | SELL NO | 0.941 | $2,323 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 07:00 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $34.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 06:59 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.993 | $34.7K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 07:40 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | BUY YES | 0.948 | $14.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 05:46 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $2,247 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 05:48 AM | 0x481e603a | SELL YES | 0.959 | $7,669 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 02:15 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.966 | $15.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 02:13 PM | 0x481e603a | SELL YES | 0.940 | $1,881 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 02:20 AM | 0x481e603a | BUY YES | 0.880 | $2,352 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 12:32 AM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $1,158 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 12:30 AM | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.756 | $1,039 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 12:21 AM | 0x481e603a | BUY YES | 0.900 | $2,796 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 08:02 PM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $1,638 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 07:57 PM | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY YES | 0.831 | $2,047 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 04:57 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $15.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 04:34 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $2,785 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 03:03 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $7,440 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 04:38 PM | 0x5072d0bf | SELL YES | 0.999 | $20.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 05:45 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $4,906 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 05:22 AM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $2,704 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 05:09 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.989 | $11.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 01:14 AM | 0x5072d0bf | BUY YES | 0.990 | $16.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 01:13 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $11.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 05:11 PM | 0x5072d0bf | BUY YES | 0.990 | $9,930 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 05:10 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.993 | $9,930 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 05:03 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.974 | $29.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 05:02 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.974 | $18.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 05:02 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.975 | $3,955 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 05:02 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.975 | $4,291 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 07:14 PM | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY YES | 0.760 | $1,055 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 04:39 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.975 | $23.4K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 03:39 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.976 | $6,025 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 02:28 AM | 0x5072d0bf | BUY YES | 0.979 | $1,718 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 02:27 AM | Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? | SELL YES | 0.975 | $1,287 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 09:50 PM | 0x5072d0bf | BUY YES | 0.979 | $3,441 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 05:16 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.980 | $14.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 05:16 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.980 | $4,741 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 01:03 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.979 | $9,790 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 01:00 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.980 | $2,344 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 12:54 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.980 | $1,470 | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 09:20 PM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.950 | $8,075 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 09:15 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.965 | $6,517 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 09:01 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.968 | $23.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 05:52 PM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.950 | $9,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 04:58 PM | 0x1db02ba5 | SELL NO | 0.997 | $1,994 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 04:57 PM | 0x1db02ba5 | SELL NO | 0.997 | $9,970 | — (SELL) |
| May 13, 07:41 PM | 0x1db02ba5 | BUY NO | 0.987 | $9,855 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 06:36 PM | 0x1db02ba5 | SELL NO | 0.989 | $9,890 | — (SELL) |
| May 13, 04:51 PM | 0x1db02ba5 | BUY NO | 0.990 | $27.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 04:50 PM | 0xffe381a8 | SELL NO | 0.997 | $59.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 12, 04:04 PM | Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.910 | $1,183 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 02:51 PM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.950 | $12.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 02:50 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.971 | $12.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 11:18 PM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.950 | $20.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 11:17 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.974 | $15.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 11:17 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.974 | $6,296 | — (SELL) |