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sleepy-panda
Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xa49b…4c40 with our methodology badges per row.
Resolved trades
16
lifetime
PnL per $
-0%
historical realized
Win rate
99.6%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$540.0K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails
The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 16 resolved trades · -0% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.
Trades (90d)
91
Distinct markets
54
Volume (90d)
$873.7K
avg $9,601 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$873.7K / $0
net direction
Recent trades
last 91 · 90d window| When | Market | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 10:26 PM | Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? | BUY YES | 0.058 | $2,904 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 20, 10:22 PM | Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? | BUY YES | 0.055 | $11.0K | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 20, 10:12 PM | Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? | BUY YES | 0.055 | $8,250 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 20, 10:11 PM | Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? | BUY YES | 0.055 | $5,500 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 20, 10:10 PM | Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? | BUY YES | 0.055 | $2,750 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 20, 10:10 PM | Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? | BUY YES | 0.055 | $2,750 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 20, 10:09 PM | Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? | BUY YES | 0.055 | $2,750 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 30, 06:53 PM | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,181 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 06:41 PM | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $32.0K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 06:31 PM | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $49.5K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 06:25 PM | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $23.8K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 06:25 PM | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $3,785 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 08:39 PM | Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $4,538 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 07:53 PM | Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $9,900 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 08:19 PM | Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 0 - 0 Real Oviedo? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,039 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 07:30 PM | Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-10? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $131.2K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 07:13 PM | Exact Score: FC Barcelona 0 - 0 Real Madrid CF? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $10.7K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 07:27 PM | Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,034 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 05:33 PM | Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,174 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 09:34 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $265.2K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 26, 05:16 PM | BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5 | BUY YES | 0.999 | $1,383 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 26, 01:40 AM | UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, Main Card) | BUY YES | 0.998 | $1,603 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 10:29 PM | UFC Fight Night: Lucas Brennan vs. Francis Marshall (Lightweight, Prelims) | BUY YES | 0.999 | $2,092 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 05:52 PM | 0xf8b435bc | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,203 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 02:56 PM | 0x7b4a222d | BUY YES | 0.999 | $1,576 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 01:27 AM | 0xd46c88e1 | BUY | 0.999 | $4,896 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 12:43 AM | 0x6479a118 | BUY | 0.999 | $1,998 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 12:39 AM | 0x6479a118 | BUY | 0.998 | $1,497 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 11:45 PM | 0x4cfd7c57 | BUY | 0.999 | $10.7K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 11:40 PM | 0x4cfd7c57 | BUY | 0.851 | $15.6K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 11:20 PM | 0xb56ed850 | BUY | 0.999 | $16.7K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 11:08 PM | 0x7e3b19e1 | BUY | 0.999 | $6,233 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 06:22 PM | 0xcf88c749 | BUY YES | 0.999 | $11.3K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 01:04 AM | 0xedf4e48f | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,327 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 07:49 PM | 0x6cfe9791 | BUY YES | 0.130 | $1,275 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 8, 06:29 PM | 0x8249f782 | BUY | 0.998 | $1,032 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 06:19 PM | 0x7aa38cbc | BUY | 0.999 | $1,069 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 03:56 AM | 0x9f2795bc | BUY | 0.999 | $1,197 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 03:48 AM | 0x9f2795bc | BUY | 0.999 | $2,394 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 11:34 PM | 0x35bf6b5d | BUY | 0.999 | $1,199 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 11:30 PM | 0x9b91aa86 | BUY | 0.999 | $2,127 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 02:40 AM | 0xeb70d029 | BUY | 0.630 | $1,890 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 02:39 AM | 0xeb70d029 | BUY | 0.630 | $3,150 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 06:06 PM | 0xc16a40cc | BUY NO | 0.999 | $6,291 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 05:54 PM | 0x88ece820 | BUY | 0.999 | $7,502 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 05:43 PM | 0xc16a40cc | BUY NO | 0.999 | $3,029 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 05:35 PM | 0xdb317c5e | BUY | 0.999 | $3,260 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 05:13 PM | 0x5d87b389 | BUY | 0.999 | $4,348 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 05:11 PM | 0xa98ec215 | BUY | 0.999 | $1,049 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 03:59 PM | 0xfc73b364 | BUY | 0.370 | $4,810 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 4, 09:40 PM | 0x69b2ff2c | BUY | 0.500 | $2,500 | — |
| Apr 4, 07:03 PM | 0xd4c16e04 | BUY YES | 0.710 | $1,420 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 07:01 PM | 0xd4c16e04 | BUY YES | 0.710 | $1,420 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 05:47 AM | 0x0c896fc5 | BUY YES | 0.560 | $1,120 | — |
| Apr 4, 05:23 AM | 0x0c896fc5 | BUY YES | 0.560 | $2,011 | — |
| Apr 4, 05:18 AM | 0x0c896fc5 | BUY YES | 0.560 | $1,176 | — |
| Apr 4, 04:59 AM | 0x0c896fc5 | BUY YES | 0.560 | $1,288 | — |
| Apr 4, 03:45 AM | 0x0c896fc5 | BUY YES | 0.560 | $1,008 | — |
| Apr 4, 03:19 AM | 0x0c896fc5 | BUY YES | 0.560 | $1,344 | — |
| Apr 4, 02:41 AM | 0x0c896fc5 | BUY YES | 0.560 | $1,120 | — |
| Apr 4, 01:36 AM | 0x0c896fc5 | BUY YES | 0.560 | $1,064 | — |
| Apr 3, 08:58 PM | 0x0c896fc5 | BUY YES | 0.550 | $10.1K | — |
| Apr 3, 08:45 PM | 0x0c896fc5 | BUY YES | 0.550 | $1,874 | — |
| Apr 3, 06:25 PM | 0x0c896fc5 | BUY YES | 0.550 | $1,405 | — |
| Apr 3, 06:06 PM | 0x415b9d99 | BUY YES | 0.770 | $4,466 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 06:04 PM | 0x415b9d99 | BUY YES | 0.770 | $1,155 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 06:02 PM | 0x415b9d99 | BUY YES | 0.770 | $1,925 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 05:57 PM | 0x415b9d99 | BUY YES | 0.760 | $1,064 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 05:53 PM | 0x415b9d99 | BUY YES | 0.760 | $1,292 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 03:05 PM | 0xc2b076c5 | BUY | 0.750 | $3,000 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 06:29 PM | 0xfad745f9 | BUY | 0.999 | $1,224 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 11:14 PM | 0xa28a2ff7 | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,990 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 03:44 AM | 0x1b60207d | BUY YES | 0.480 | $1,440 | — |
| Mar 31, 03:40 AM | 0x1b60207d | BUY YES | 0.470 | $1,081 | — |
| Mar 30, 05:53 PM | 0x05eec7f9 | BUY | 0.480 | $1,920 | — |
| Mar 30, 04:40 PM | 0x05eec7f9 | BUY | 0.510 | $7,453 | — |
| Mar 28, 11:24 PM | 0xef7ab871 | BUY | 0.999 | $1,611 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 11:14 PM | 0x493b2fda | BUY | 0.999 | $4,774 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 09:06 PM | 0x174ae344 | BUY | 0.870 | $1,131 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 07:22 PM | 0x36815bf4 | BUY | 0.240 | $48.2K | Cheap band — no rep |
| Mar 28, 03:41 PM | 0x0a17097b | BUY | 0.999 | $1,014 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 04:38 AM | 0x1b30bb47 | BUY | 0.570 | $3,420 | — |
| Mar 27, 06:42 PM | 0x1b30bb47 | BUY | 0.570 | $8,550 | — |
| Mar 26, 09:30 PM | 1688000 | BUY | 0.230 | $22.3K | Cheap band — no rep |
| Mar 25, 03:30 AM | 0x9a1844ac | BUY | 0.993 | $6,901 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 25, 03:27 AM | 0x5567a98b | BUY | 0.989 | $3,402 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 25, 03:25 AM | 0x5567a98b | BUY | 0.989 | $7,358 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 25, 03:23 AM | 0x9a1844ac | BUY | 0.992 | $7,682 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 25, 03:02 AM | 0x5567a98b | BUY | 0.991 | $2,468 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 25, 01:24 AM | 0x1b30bb47 | BUY | 0.560 | $1,400 | — |
| Mar 24, 11:50 PM | 0x1b30bb47 | BUY | 0.560 | $2,002 | — |
Markets active in
54 markets · sorted by volume| Market | Category | Trades | Volume | Net BUY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | Other | 1 | $265.2K | +$265.2K |
| Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-10? | Tech | 1 | $131.2K | +$131.2K |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | Tech | 3 | $85.2K | +$85.2K |
| 0x36815bf4 | — | 1 | $48.2K | +$48.2K |
| Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? | Other | 7 | $35.9K | +$35.9K |
| 0x4cfd7c57 | — | 2 | $26.4K | +$26.4K |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | Other | 2 | $25.0K | +$25.0K |
| 0x0c896fc5 | — | 11 | $23.5K | +$23.5K |
| 1688000 | — | 1 | $22.3K | +$22.3K |
| 0xb56ed850 | — | 1 | $16.7K | +$16.7K |
| 0x1b30bb47 | — | 4 | $15.4K | +$15.4K |
| 0x9a1844ac | — | 2 | $14.6K | +$14.6K |
| 0x5567a98b | — | 3 | $13.2K | +$13.2K |
| 0xcf88c749 | — | 1 | $11.3K | +$11.3K |
| Exact Score: FC Barcelona 0 - 0 Real Madrid CF? | Other | 1 | $10.7K | +$10.7K |
| 0x415b9d99 | — | 5 | $9,902 | +$9,902 |
| Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? | Other | 1 | $9,900 | +$9,900 |
| 0x05eec7f9 | — | 2 | $9,373 | +$9,373 |
| 0xc16a40cc | — | 2 | $9,320 | +$9,320 |
| 0x88ece820 | — | 1 | $7,502 | +$7,502 |
| 0x7e3b19e1 | — | 1 | $6,233 | +$6,233 |
| 0xeb70d029 | — | 2 | $5,040 | +$5,040 |
| 0xd46c88e1 | — | 1 | $4,896 | +$4,896 |
| 0xfc73b364 | — | 1 | $4,810 | +$4,810 |
| 0x493b2fda | — | 1 | $4,774 | +$4,774 |
| Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? | Other | 1 | $4,538 | +$4,538 |
| 0x5d87b389 | — | 1 | $4,348 | +$4,348 |
| 0x9f2795bc | — | 2 | $3,591 | +$3,591 |
| 0x6479a118 | — | 2 | $3,495 | +$3,495 |
| 0xdb317c5e | — | 1 | $3,260 | +$3,260 |
Showing top 30 by volume.