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sleepy-panda

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xa49b…4c40 with our methodology badges per row.

0xa49becb692927d455924583b5e3e5788246f4c40·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
66
lifetime
PnL per $
+2%
historical realized
Win rate
62.3%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$1.30M
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 66 resolved trades · 2% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
83
Distinct markets
34
Volume (90d)
$1.55M
avg $18.7K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$1.55M / $0
net direction

Recent trades

last 83 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 19, 05:59 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.409$2,454
Jul 19, 05:55 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.409$40.9K
Jul 19, 05:49 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.409$23.7K
Jul 18, 03:36 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.402$4,020
Jul 18, 03:35 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.402$16.1K
Jul 18, 03:18 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.402$8,040
Jul 18, 03:18 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.402$2,010
Jul 18, 03:17 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.402$8,040
Jul 18, 03:14 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.402$2,010
Jul 16, 01:25 AMWill England finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.640$1,280Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 08:03 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.202$1,009Cheap band — no rep
Jul 11, 06:01 PMWill Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.060$1,123Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 9, 10:20 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.384$1,536Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 9, 10:19 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.384$1,536Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 9, 10:19 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.384$4,608Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 9, 10:15 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.394$7,880Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 9, 10:10 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.394$3,940Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 9, 10:07 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.394$1,970Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 9, 10:06 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.395$1,580Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 9, 10:05 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.395$2,765Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 9, 06:00 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.320$1,920Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 9, 05:58 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.320$1,280Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 05:21 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.331$1,655Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 07:01 AMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.331$1,324Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 06:46 AMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.331$3,310Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 05:07 AMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.331$3,310Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 6, 07:03 PMWill Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.047$2,350
Jul 6, 06:59 PMWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.031$3,100
Jul 6, 06:06 PMWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.032$1,120
Jul 6, 05:51 PMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.054$2,176Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 29, 10:55 PMWill Germany win on 2026-06-29?BUY NO0.999$14.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 10:48 PMWill Germany win on 2026-06-29?BUY NO0.999$14.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 10:47 PMWill Germany win on 2026-06-29?BUY NO0.999$3,661Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 10:46 PMWill Germany win on 2026-06-29?BUY NO0.999$1,153Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 01:54 AMWill Jordan win on 2026-06-27?BUY YES0.042$8,610
Jun 27, 05:33 AMWill Portugal win on 2026-06-27?BUY YES0.480$8,258
Jun 27, 02:53 AMWill New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?BUY YES0.070$14.0KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 02:10 AMWill New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?BUY YES0.070$2,389Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 26, 11:37 PMWill Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?BUY YES0.160$14.8KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 26, 11:37 PMWill Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?BUY YES0.160$3,560Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 26, 04:49 PMWill France win on 2026-06-26?BUY YES0.670$2,177Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 10:24 PMWill Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?BUY YES0.034$2,708
Jun 25, 07:36 PMWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?BUY YES0.059$8,850Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 25, 05:51 PMWill Germany win on 2026-06-25?BUY YES0.614$1,008Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 05:48 PMWill Germany win on 2026-06-25?BUY YES0.610$6,100Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 05:48 PMWill Germany win on 2026-06-25?BUY YES0.609$24.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 03:54 PMWill United States win on 2026-06-25?BUY YES0.520$26.0K
Jun 25, 05:09 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-25?BUY YES0.530$159.0K
Jun 25, 01:44 AMWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?BUY YES0.049$2,354
Jun 25, 12:00 AMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-24?BUY YES0.550$14.1K
Jun 24, 09:18 PMWill Haiti win on 2026-06-24?BUY YES0.070$1,400Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 24, 04:49 AMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-24?BUY YES0.510$33.9K
Jun 24, 04:48 AMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-24?BUY YES0.510$195.9K
Jun 24, 04:48 AMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-24?BUY YES0.510$114.1K
Jun 23, 06:46 AMWill Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?BUY YES0.050$8,000Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 23, 02:01 AMWill Jordan win on 2026-06-22?BUY YES0.140$13.8KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 23, 02:01 AMWill Jordan win on 2026-06-22?BUY YES0.140$3,370Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 22, 04:51 PMWill Iraq win on 2026-06-22?BUY YES0.026$1,654
Jun 22, 08:45 AMWill Argentina win on 2026-06-22?BUY YES0.670$134.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 08:03 AMWill Argentina win on 2026-06-22?BUY YES0.670$40.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 03:45 AMWill Argentina win on 2026-06-22?BUY YES0.660$157.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 12:59 AMWill New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?BUY YES0.170$20.4KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 22, 12:22 AMWill New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?BUY YES0.160$12.7KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 21, 04:02 AMWill Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?BUY YES0.035$5,250
Jun 21, 04:00 AMWill Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?BUY YES0.120$1,140Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 21, 03:41 AMWill Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?BUY YES0.110$13.1KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 20, 10:26 PMWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?BUY YES0.058$2,904Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 20, 10:22 PMWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?BUY YES0.055$11.0KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 20, 10:12 PMWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?BUY YES0.055$8,250Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 20, 10:11 PMWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?BUY YES0.055$5,500Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 20, 10:10 PMWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?BUY YES0.055$2,750Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 20, 10:10 PMWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?BUY YES0.055$2,750Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 20, 10:09 PMWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?BUY YES0.055$2,750Killed band — neutral expectation
May 30, 06:53 PM0x5dc96d5bBUY NO0.999$1,181Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 06:41 PMWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?BUY NO0.999$32.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 06:31 PMWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?BUY NO0.999$49.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 06:25 PM0x5dc96d5bBUY NO0.999$23.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 06:25 PMWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?BUY NO0.999$3,785Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:39 PM0x11b8c7fdBUY NO0.999$4,538Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 07:53 PM0x8d6e90b6BUY NO0.990$9,900Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 08:19 PM0x72866692BUY NO0.999$1,039Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 07:30 PM0xb93d6d25BUY NO0.999$131.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 07:13 PM0x1bd5a9bfBUY NO0.998$10.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

34 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?Other4$358.0K+$358.0K
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?Other3$331.5K+$331.5K
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?Other2$185.0K+$185.0K
0xb93d6d251$131.2K+$131.2K
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?Tech3$85.2K+$85.2K
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Tech3$67.1K+$67.1K
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other6$40.2K+$40.2K
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other15$39.6K+$39.6K
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?Other7$35.9K+$35.9K
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?Other4$33.2K+$33.2K
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?Other2$33.1K+$33.1K
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?Other3$31.5K+$31.5K
0x5dc96d5b2$25.0K+$25.0K
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?Other2$18.4K+$18.4K
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?Other2$17.1K+$17.1K
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?Other2$16.4K+$16.4K
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?Other2$14.3K+$14.3K
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?Other2$11.2K+$11.2K
0x1bd5a9bf1$10.7K+$10.7K
0x8d6e90b61$9,900+$9,900
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?Other1$8,610+$8,610
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?Other1$8,258+$8,258
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?Other1$8,000+$8,000
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?Other1$5,250+$5,250
0x11b8c7fd1$4,538+$4,538
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$4,220+$4,220
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$3,473+$3,473
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?Other1$2,708+$2,708
Will France win on 2026-06-26?Other1$2,177+$2,177
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$2,176+$2,176

Showing top 30 by volume.