Back to whale feed

SAPolitcsSeer

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xa30e…49d5 with our methodology badges per row.

0xa30e451354cb41cfd46689a065defed989ea49d5·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
35
lifetime
PnL per $
-0%
historical realized
Win rate
96.5%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$402.8K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 35 resolved trades · -0% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
102
Distinct markets
38
Volume (90d)
$928.6K
avg $9,104 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$746.1K / $182.5K
net direction

Recent trades

last 102 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 18, 02:49 AMWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY NO0.660$1,878Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 02:44 AMWill Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?SELL NO0.998$4,133— (SELL)
Jul 18, 02:39 AMWill Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?SELL NO0.998$13.6K— (SELL)
Jul 18, 02:39 AMWill Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?SELL NO0.999$66.0K— (SELL)
Jul 18, 02:32 AMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?BUY NO0.986$5,054Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 02:30 AMWill Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?BUY YES0.969$1,392Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 02:28 AMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?BUY NO0.860$4,300Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 11:24 PMIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?BUY NO0.950$8,304Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 11:21 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?SELL NO0.941$14.1K— (SELL)
Jun 20, 07:59 PMWill Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY NO0.905$1,420Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 07:54 PMWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.967$9,670Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 07:52 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.940$4,700Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 07:49 PMWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.967$9,670Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 07:45 PMStarmer out by July 31, 2026?BUY YES0.890$7,141Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 07:42 PMWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.967$9,670Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 07:41 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.940$9,400Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:21 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.994$49.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:19 PMWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY YES0.879$7,032Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:44 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY NO0.980$10.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 01:46 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY NO0.978$8,992Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 05:04 PMWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY YES0.840$1,921Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 04:36 PMWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY NO0.975$14.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 04:36 PMWill Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?BUY YES0.984$1,198Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 04:35 PMWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY YES0.833$1,981Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 04:34 PMWill Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?SELL NO0.998$19.7K— (SELL)
Jun 6, 04:33 PMWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY NO0.975$1,258Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 04:33 PMWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY NO0.975$45.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 04:32 PM0xa68b0a77BUY YES0.929$2,134Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 04:32 PM0xa68b0a77BUY YES0.904$3,541Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 04:27 PMWill Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?SELL NO0.997$7,880— (SELL)
Jun 6, 04:26 PMWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY NO0.975$19.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 04:25 PMWill Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?SELL NO0.998$23.9K— (SELL)
Jun 6, 04:23 PMWill Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY NO0.955$6,136Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 04:21 PMWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY NO0.972$8,058Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 12:09 PMWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY YES0.793$6,016Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 06:12 AMWill Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY NO0.895$19.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 06:11 AM0xc8559283SELL NO0.935$9,754— (SELL)
Jun 3, 06:10 AM0xc8559283BUY NO0.991$10.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 06:09 AMWill Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY NO0.896$8,960Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 06:07 AM0xc8559283SELL NO0.937$15.4K— (SELL)
Jun 3, 05:05 AM0xc8559283BUY NO0.988$16.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 05:04 AMWill Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY NO0.909$8,937Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 05:00 AMWill Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY NO0.937$8,132Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:58 AMWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY YES0.820$4,984Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:58 AMWill Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY NO0.933$9,149Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:58 AMWill Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY NO0.932$10.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:37 PM0xff7f8250BUY NO0.969$3,196Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:36 PM0x789c947aSELL NO0.998$7,984— (SELL)
May 28, 12:13 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY NO0.973$6,088Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 12:28 AM0x4ba34832BUY YES0.978$2,249Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 03:29 PMIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.989$1,303Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 03:28 PMWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?BUY NO0.973$7,955Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 03:26 PMIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.984$7,564Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 03:19 PM0x4d1ee0c0BUY NO0.975$1,569Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 03:01 PM0x99a0fdc1BUY YES0.950$5,700Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 06:42 AM0x80d8661eBUY NO0.984$7,433Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 06:37 AM0x99067da6BUY YES0.977$2,203Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 06:33 AM0x11d4960aBUY YES0.940$3,767Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:01 PMWill Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY NO0.989$1,146Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 02:53 AM0x4d1ee0c0BUY NO0.987$9,870Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 02:53 AM0x4d1ee0c0BUY NO0.985$2,053Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 02:53 AM0x4d1ee0c0BUY NO0.978$1,123Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 02:48 AM0xff7f8250BUY NO0.974$2,066Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 02:44 AMWill Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY NO0.987$4,809Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 02:18 AMWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY NO0.750$6,945Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 11:58 PM0x789c947aBUY NO0.986$9,908Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 06:22 PM0x6cf5831fBUY YES0.990$2,187Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 06:21 PM0x6cf5831fBUY YES0.990$2,063Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 06:21 PM0x6cf5831fBUY YES0.987$3,745Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 06:18 PMWill Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY NO0.982$1,826Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 03:38 AMWill Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?BUY YES0.990$9,900Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 03:37 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY NO0.950$19.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 03:34 AMWill Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY NO0.978$2,368Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 03:26 PM0x79e7d16fBUY NO0.990$1,478Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 03:26 PM0x79e7d16fBUY NO0.988$10.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 03:23 PMWill France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?BUY NO0.953$4,227Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 03:19 PM0x789c947aBUY NO0.987$9,870Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 03:18 PMWill Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?BUY YES0.989$5,460Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 03:15 PM0x69487ec6BUY NO0.990$16.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 03:13 PMWill Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY NO0.987$23.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 03:13 PMWill Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY NO0.979$3,427Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 06:14 PM0x332e3332BUY NO0.958$1,861Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 06:10 PM0x789c947aBUY NO0.988$6,053Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 06:10 PM0x789c947aBUY NO0.988$1,042Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 06:10 PM0x789c947aBUY NO0.988$1,308Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 06:10 PM0x789c947aBUY NO0.988$2,751Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 06:09 PMWill Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY NO0.979$6,747Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 06:09 PMStarmer out by May 15, 2026?BUY NO0.985$11.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 03:36 PMWill Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY NO0.979$10.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 03:35 PM0xff7f8250BUY NO0.974$2,739Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 03:30 PMStarmer out by May 15, 2026?BUY NO0.960$5,283Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 06:13 PM0x789c947aBUY NO0.985$21.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 06:12 PMWill Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?BUY YES0.990$50.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 01:02 AM0x789c947aBUY NO0.982$9,820Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 12:56 AM0xffe381a8BUY NO0.992$11.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 12:55 AMWill Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY NO0.979$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 12:54 AMWill Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY NO0.980$2,094Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 12:54 AMWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY YES0.790$13.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 12:54 AMStarmer out by May 15, 2026?BUY NO0.928$5,228Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 12:53 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY NO0.940$11.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 05:48 PMStarmer out by May 15, 2026?BUY NO0.974$5,065Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 05:47 PMStarmer out by May 15, 2026?BUY NO0.970$4,078Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

38 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics9$141.5K+$1,333
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics6$96.2K+$96.2K
0x789c947a9$69.9K+$54.0K
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Politics4$66.5K+$66.5K
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Other5$55.8K+$55.8K
0xc85592834$51.7K+$1,428
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Finance1$49.7K+$49.7K
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics2$47.6K$-268
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics4$39.1K$-374
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics8$37.1K$-5,798
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?Other5$31.5K+$31.5K
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other3$29.0K+$29.0K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Tech3$28.2K$-18
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics5$21.9K+$21.9K
0x69487ec61$16.0K+$16.0K
0x4d1ee0c04$14.6K+$14.6K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics1$13.0K+$13.0K
0xffe381a81$11.9K+$11.9K
0x79e7d16f2$11.7K+$11.7K
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?Other2$8,867+$8,867
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Other1$8,304+$8,304
0xff7f82503$8,001+$8,001
0x6cf5831f3$7,995+$7,995
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Other1$7,955+$7,955
0x80d8661e1$7,433+$7,433
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Other1$7,141+$7,141
0x99a0fdc11$5,700+$5,700
0xa68b0a772$5,675+$5,675
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?Other1$5,054+$5,054
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Other1$4,300+$4,300

Showing top 30 by volume.