Back to whale feed

elPolloLoco

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xa2f1…2d22 with our methodology badges per row.

0xa2f1fecf1cc7db65a46588f764b6691533052d22·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
53
lifetime
PnL per $
+13%
historical realized
Win rate
74.6%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$394.8K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✓ passes

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. This wallet clears the bar — its BUYs in 0.20–0.30 trigger our high-conviction tier.

Trades (90d)
84
Distinct markets
40
Volume (90d)
$494.9K
avg $5,891 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$269.3K / $225.5K
net direction

Recent trades

last 84 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 15, 03:03 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.803$14.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 03:03 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.802$14.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:32 AMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.630$12.6K— (SELL)
Jul 15, 05:32 AMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.630$14.2K— (SELL)
Jul 15, 04:39 AMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.630$4,065— (SELL)
Jul 14, 01:02 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.174$14.9K— (SELL)
Jul 14, 12:46 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL NO0.070$3,059— (SELL)
Jul 13, 03:50 AMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.181$7,968— (SELL)
Jul 12, 05:09 AMWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.525$4,276
Jul 12, 04:45 AMWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.492$4,415
Jul 12, 04:38 AMWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.460$1,921
Jul 12, 04:32 AMWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?BUY YES0.833$4,846Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 01:58 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.190$2,636Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 01:58 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.809$14.2K— (SELL)
Jul 6, 03:18 PMWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.480$5,153
Jul 6, 02:50 PMWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?BUY YES0.880$7,177Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:52 AMWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?BUY YES0.880$8,800Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 12:56 PMWill Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-07-05?BUY YES0.930$6,696Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 01:45 PMWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?BUY YES0.870$1,812Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 12:29 PMWill Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-07-04?BUY NO0.950$7,114Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 12:21 PMWill Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-07-04?BUY NO0.950$7,962Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 12:21 PMWill Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-07-04?BUY NO0.950$4,080Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 10:43 AMWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?BUY YES0.590$3,248
Jul 4, 09:37 AMWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.930$2,516Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 06:06 AMWill Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.160$1,184— (SELL)
Jul 2, 02:54 AMWill Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.290$2,563— (SELL)
Jun 30, 05:58 PMWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?SELL NO0.960$5,273— (SELL)
Jun 29, 12:24 PMWill Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?SELL NO0.979$2,777— (SELL)
Jun 29, 10:37 AMWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?SELL NO0.968$10.6K— (SELL)
Jun 27, 04:53 PMWill Ghana win on 2026-06-27?BUY NO0.820$9,840Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 04:33 PMWill South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.820$7,733Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 07:02 AMWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.606$2,159Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 06:05 AMWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.564$1,910
Jun 25, 09:57 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?SELL NO0.942$1,866— (SELL)
Jun 25, 09:52 PMWill Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June?SELL NO0.953$3,521— (SELL)
Jun 25, 07:48 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?SELL NO0.754$1,242— (SELL)
Jun 25, 02:02 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?SELL NO0.941$1,914— (SELL)
Jun 25, 05:08 AMWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?SELL NO0.927$1,817— (SELL)
Jun 25, 03:10 AMWill Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.210$2,535— (SELL)
Jun 23, 01:03 PMWill Ethereum reach $2,200 in June?SELL NO0.992$2,041— (SELL)
Jun 23, 03:57 AMWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.548$1,610
Jun 22, 03:12 AMWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?SELL NO0.880$5,425— (SELL)
Jun 21, 09:18 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?SELL NO0.850$2,220— (SELL)
Jun 21, 05:45 AMWill Japan win on 2026-06-21?SELL YES0.999$21.0K— (SELL)
Jun 21, 02:22 AMWill Japan win on 2026-06-21?BUY YES0.690$14.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 12:00 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?SELL NO0.949$1,348— (SELL)
Jun 11, 08:20 AMWill Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June?SELL NO0.956$6,509— (SELL)
Jun 5, 04:12 PMWill Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?SELL NO0.920$1,072— (SELL)
Jun 5, 01:40 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?SELL NO0.638$2,351— (SELL)
Jun 5, 06:27 AMWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?SELL NO0.427$2,343— (SELL)
Jun 5, 05:58 AMWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?SELL NO0.552$1,533— (SELL)
Jun 5, 03:01 AMWill Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?SELL NO0.849$1,531— (SELL)
Jun 4, 01:21 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?SELL NO0.737$1,357— (SELL)
Jun 4, 05:33 AMWill Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?SELL NO0.750$1,576— (SELL)
Jun 4, 01:19 AMWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?SELL NO0.880$6,428— (SELL)
Jun 3, 10:16 PMWill Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?SELL NO0.882$2,125— (SELL)
Jun 3, 10:11 PMWill Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?SELL NO0.888$2,239— (SELL)
Jun 3, 10:04 PMWill Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?SELL NO0.889$1,778— (SELL)
Jun 3, 10:00 PMWill Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?SELL NO0.893$2,742— (SELL)
May 24, 08:19 AM0x9ff26299SELL NO0.971$1,627— (SELL)
May 24, 07:26 AM0x9ff26299SELL NO0.971$5,826— (SELL)
May 24, 03:35 AM0xde5ed16bSELL NO0.973$1,460— (SELL)
May 23, 11:04 PM0x523c642aSELL NO0.978$1,369— (SELL)
May 23, 08:45 PM0x9ff26299SELL NO0.969$5,727— (SELL)
May 20, 08:30 AM0x58078283SELL NO0.890$4,898— (SELL)
May 20, 05:06 AM0x2de954c6SELL YES0.680$7,788— (SELL)
May 18, 07:01 PM0x58078283SELL NO0.880$3,664— (SELL)
May 18, 12:35 PM0x58078283SELL NO0.840$3,384— (SELL)
May 18, 11:40 AM0x58078283SELL NO0.850$1,290— (SELL)
May 17, 02:15 PM0x27ad7bacSELL NO0.840$1,729— (SELL)
May 17, 02:00 PM0x27ad7bacSELL NO0.850$1,203— (SELL)
May 16, 10:08 AM0x2de954c6SELL NO0.370$1,295— (SELL)
May 16, 07:15 AM0x2de954c6BUY NO0.380$3,800Killed band — neutral expectation
May 15, 12:53 PMWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.015$1,200— (SELL)
May 15, 12:53 PMWill Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.015$1,200— (SELL)
May 15, 12:53 PMWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.016$1,280— (SELL)
May 15, 12:53 PMWill Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.018$1,440— (SELL)
May 15, 12:53 PMWill Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.020$1,600— (SELL)
May 15, 12:52 PMWill Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.978$78.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 04:00 PM0x12587fe0SELL NO0.840$2,010— (SELL)
May 14, 03:52 PM0x12587fe0SELL NO0.850$1,036— (SELL)
May 13, 10:27 AM0x2de954c6SELL NO0.640$1,607— (SELL)
May 11, 03:11 PMWill Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.020$1,000— (SELL)
May 11, 03:08 PMWill Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.978$47.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

40 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$126.2K+$126.2K
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other4$51.9K+$6,061
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?Other2$35.5K$-6,489
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other3$30.9K$-30,870
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Other4$22.6K+$22.6K
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Other7$21.4K+$21.4K
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-07-04?Tech3$19.2K+$19.2K
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?Crypto5$17.4K$-17,397
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Tech2$16.8K$-11,522
0x2de954c64$14.5K$-6,890
0x580782834$13.2K$-13,236
0x9ff262993$13.2K$-13,180
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?Crypto5$11.7K$-11,661
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?Crypto4$11.5K$-11,521
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?Other1$9,840+$9,840
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?Crypto3$9,690$-9,690
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$7,733+$7,733
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-07-05?Tech1$6,696+$6,696
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June?Crypto1$6,509$-6,509
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?Crypto1$5,273$-5,273
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June?Crypto1$3,521$-3,521
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?Crypto2$3,397$-3,397
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Other1$3,248+$3,248
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance1$3,059$-3,059
0x12587fe02$3,046$-3,046
0x27ad7bac2$2,932$-2,932
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$2,600$-2,600
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$2,563$-2,563
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$2,535$-2,535
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Other1$2,516+$2,516

Showing top 30 by volume.