| Jul 19, 09:54 PM | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $12.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 09:54 PM | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $30.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 09:48 PM | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $1,256 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 09:14 PM | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $2,476 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 09:01 PM | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $37.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 09:01 PM | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $4,206 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 09:00 PM | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $24.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 08:26 PM | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.979 | $80.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 05:53 PM | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.930 | $20.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 05:53 PM | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.930 | $258.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 11:46 PM | Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.986 | $7,239 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 08:02 PM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $1,171 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 02:29 AM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $395.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 02:29 AM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $263.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 02:29 AM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $86.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 02:29 AM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.877 | $17.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 02:29 AM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $5,331 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 02:54 AM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $76.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 02:53 AM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $25.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 07:23 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $7,739 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 07:23 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $52.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 12:47 AM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $17.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 12:47 AM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $61.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 12:47 AM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $13.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 04:04 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $26.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 01:27 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $795.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 05:08 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $246.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 05:08 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $2.37M | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 04:15 PM | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.881 | $3,836 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 12:49 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.198 | $3,258 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 12:46 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.197 | $2,004 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 12:31 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.199 | $2,333 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 12:30 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.199 | $2,249 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 12:30 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.192 | $3,153 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 12:26 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.705 | $57.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 12:11 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.770 | $122.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 12:24 AM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $163.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 11:29 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.979 | $5,784 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 10:51 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.977 | $16.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 02:11 AM | 0xcddc048c | BUY NO | 0.995 | $227.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 08:08 PM | 0xcddc048c | BUY NO | 0.990 | $57.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 05:49 PM | Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $6,363 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 05:48 PM | Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? | BUY NO | 0.974 | $2,122 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 05:47 PM | Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $4,248 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 05:47 PM | Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | BUY NO | 0.977 | $2,420 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 10:19 PM | 0xcddc048c | BUY NO | 0.990 | $75.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 10:47 PM | 0xcddc048c | BUY NO | 0.995 | $31.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 11:59 AM | 0xcddc048c | BUY NO | 0.984 | $9,944 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 05:40 PM | 0xcddc048c | BUY NO | 0.979 | $20.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 12:51 AM | 0x5e5482b1 | BUY YES | 0.076 | $1,134 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 8, 11:15 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $98.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 11:15 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.836 | $36.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 11:14 PM | 0xcddc048c | BUY NO | 0.977 | $26.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 11:14 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.944 | $27.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 11:14 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $35.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 01:12 PM | 0xca3e30a1 | BUY YES | 0.998 | $4,030 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 01:11 PM | 0x62338d04 | BUY YES | 0.996 | $14.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |