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mcorleone
Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x9e7e…3e1d with our methodology badges per row.
Resolved trades
8
lifetime
PnL per $
+372%
historical realized
Win rate
100.0%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$57.9K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails
The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 8 resolved trades · 372% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.
Trades (90d)
37
Distinct markets
8
Volume (90d)
$130.0K
avg $3,513 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$56.1K / $73.8K
net direction
Recent trades
last 37 · 90d window| When | Market | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7, 08:24 AM | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL YES | 0.789 | $3,866 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 11:58 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL NO | 0.480 | $1,553 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 11:18 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.764 | $4,464 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 11:17 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.764 | $2,313 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 11:13 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL NO | 0.540 | $1,217 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 11:12 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $2,100 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 11:10 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.831 | $34.8K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 07:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.349 | $2,324 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 07:46 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL NO | 0.550 | $1,467 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 01:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.580 | $2,635 | — |
| Jun 8, 07:43 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY NO | 0.850 | $4,145 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 02:44 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY NO | 0.750 | $3,750 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 09:55 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.510 | $1,466 | — |
| Jun 3, 10:18 PM | 0xc587bda9 | BUY YES | 0.949 | $2,848 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 10:17 PM | 0xc587bda9 | BUY YES | 0.933 | $1,248 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 10:15 PM | 0xc587bda9 | BUY YES | 0.914 | $3,029 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 09:24 PM | 0xc587bda9 | BUY YES | 0.692 | $2,424 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 09:23 PM | 0xc587bda9 | BUY YES | 0.670 | $2,712 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 09:12 PM | 0xc587bda9 | BUY YES | 0.800 | $1,600 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 09:10 PM | 0xc587bda9 | BUY YES | 0.839 | $1,661 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 08:29 PM | 0xc587bda9 | BUY YES | 0.569 | $1,193 | — |
| Jun 3, 05:06 PM | 0x366f8964 | SELL NO | 0.964 | $9,640 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 02:16 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.640 | $4,727 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:36 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL NO | 0.510 | $1,020 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 02:35 PM | 0x366f8964 | SELL NO | 0.740 | $1,085 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 02:33 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.640 | $4,528 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 02:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $1,740 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:29 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL NO | 0.554 | $2,100 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 05:50 AM | 0x366f8964 | BUY NO | 0.790 | $1,102 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 11:16 PM | 0xc587bda9 | SELL YES | 0.158 | $1,345 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 09:44 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.680 | $3,247 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 01:25 AM | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.705 | $1,287 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 01:26 AM | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.700 | $5,518 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 01:21 AM | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.699 | $3,024 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 01:21 AM | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.693 | $1,286 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 04:16 AM | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.652 | $2,426 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 03:25 AM | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.645 | $3,061 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
Markets active in
8 markets · sorted by volume| Market | Category | Trades | Volume | Net BUY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Other | 5 | $48.2K | $-48,215 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Finance | 7 | $20.5K | +$12.7K |
| 0xc587bda9 | — | 9 | $18.1K | +$15.4K |
| 0x6114a8a3 | — | 7 | $15.3K | +$538 |
| 0x366f8964 | — | 3 | $11.8K | $-9,623 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | Other | 3 | $6,425 | +$1,777 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Other | 2 | $4,987 | +$4,987 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Tech | 1 | $4,727 | +$4,727 |