| Jul 20, 05:52 PM | Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 120m and 125m? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $4,576 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 20, 01:22 AM | Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? | SELL YES | 0.993 | $1,966 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 20, 01:11 AM | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY YES | 0.989 | $7,097 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 11:41 PM | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY YES | 0.980 | $5,139 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 11:26 PM | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | SELL YES | 0.962 | $1,036 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 19, 08:32 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.919 | $1,962 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 06:14 PM | Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 130m and 135m? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $2,646 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 12:29 AM | Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? | BUY YES | 0.988 | $2,395 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 12:16 AM | Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 125m and 130m? | BUY YES | 0.470 | $2,658 | —— |
| Jul 19, 12:15 AM | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL NO | 0.996 | $4,370 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 18, 01:57 PM | Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 120m and 125m? | BUY YES | 0.260 | $2,380 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 18, 02:45 AM | Will Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 24, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $1,253 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 18, 02:45 AM | Will Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.986 | $1,732 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 18, 12:56 AM | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $2,016 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 17, 08:53 PM | Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? | SELL NO | 0.237 | $1,686 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 17, 03:06 PM | Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? | SELL NO | 0.470 | $2,360 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 17, 05:01 AM | Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? | BUY YES | 0.857 | $1,497 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 16, 03:54 PM | Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? | BUY NO | 0.370 | $2,803 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 15, 04:24 AM | Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.938 | $1,237 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 14, 02:42 PM | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.942 | $1,884 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 14, 12:42 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.910 | $17.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 14, 12:32 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.890 | $8,949 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 14, 01:35 AM | Will Bryce Harper win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $5,612 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 14, 01:09 AM | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $2,027 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 13, 04:47 PM | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? | BUY YES | 0.696 | $2,405 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 02:26 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $11.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 12, 06:32 PM | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? | BUY NO | 0.724 | $1,128 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 12, 03:27 PM | Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $2,636 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 12, 03:56 AM | Will "Minions & Monsters" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 20m? | BUY NO | 0.917 | $1,372 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 11, 10:00 PM | Will "Toy Story 5" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 19m? | BUY YES | 0.800 | $2,439 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 11, 09:53 PM | Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 44m? | BUY YES | 0.872 | $2,835 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 11, 02:35 AM | Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 39m? | BUY NO | 0.899 | $1,002 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 11, 02:35 AM | Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 39m? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $1,136 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 11, 02:34 AM | Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $2,884 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 10, 07:51 PM | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $2,983 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 10, 07:34 PM | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.898 | $4,489 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 10, 07:27 PM | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $3,486 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 10, 07:22 PM | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $4,543 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 10, 05:25 PM | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $1,090 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 10, 03:29 AM | Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m? | BUY NO | 0.875 | $1,021 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 9, 04:32 PM | GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $2,581 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 9, 04:32 PM | GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $1,673 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 9, 04:32 PM | GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $4,533 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 9, 04:31 PM | Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 12, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,343 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 9, 03:09 AM | GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,507 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 09:19 PM | Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? | BUY YES | 0.907 | $1,566 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 09:03 PM | GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $8,549 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 08:35 PM | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.979 | $2,512 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 08:33 PM | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $1,921 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 08:33 PM | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.934 | $1,920 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 06:27 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.790 | $1,836 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 06:27 PM | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | BUY YES | 0.452 | $1,063 | —— |
| Jul 8, 05:58 PM | Grok 4.4 released by July 8? | BUY YES | 0.998 | $6,986 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 05:41 PM | Grok 4.4 released by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $3,951 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 05:41 PM | Grok 4.4 released by July 17? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $1,732 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 05:25 PM | GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $6,719 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 8, 04:21 AM | GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $4,023 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 12:11 AM | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $13.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 6, 10:36 PM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $1,230 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 6, 03:20 AM | Will "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 20m? | BUY YES | 0.941 | $1,858 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 3, 04:27 PM | GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $13.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 2, 05:55 PM | GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $1,309 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 05:50 AM | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $3,220 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 07:01 PM | GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.959 | $1,015 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 05:47 PM | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.995 | $1,639 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 12:57 PM | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.935 | $2,370 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 30, 04:10 AM | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.828 | $1,020 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 26, 12:50 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY YES | 0.415 | $1,821 | —— |
| Jun 26, 02:06 AM | Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $1,101 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 25, 01:22 PM | Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.467 | $2,531 | —— |
| Jun 24, 04:07 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY YES | 0.280 | $1,672 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 23, 03:48 PM | GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $4,110 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 06:05 PM | Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? | SELL YES | 0.981 | $9,625 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 22, 01:58 AM | Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.991 | $6,006 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 22, 12:30 AM | Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? | BUY YES | 0.939 | $1,732 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 04:46 AM | Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.830 | $4,111 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 04:29 AM | Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.979 | $1,699 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 03:33 AM | Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? | BUY YES | 0.747 | $2,435 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 01:04 AM | Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m? | BUY YES | 0.399 | $1,086 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 21, 12:36 AM | Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? | BUY YES | 0.806 | $2,232 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 11:53 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.516 | $2,581 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 04:18 AM | 0xefe33bcf | BUY YES | 0.999 | $2,859 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 12:40 AM | Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? | BUY NO | 0.819 | $7,803 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 03:06 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $4,194 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 02:43 PM | Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $1,049 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 02:30 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? | BUY NO | 0.973 | $1,396 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 01:45 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.290 | $1,646 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 04:07 PM | Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $6,993 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 03:58 PM | Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $3,318 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 02:31 PM | Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $5,203 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 04:28 AM | Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? | BUY NO | 0.628 | $1,090 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 01:09 AM | Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $2,691 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 12:53 AM | Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1480+? | BUY YES | 0.976 | $1,380 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 12:52 AM | Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530? | BUY YES | 0.900 | $1,719 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 12:50 AM | Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520? | BUY YES | 0.958 | $1,333 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 10:53 PM | GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.888 | $1,206 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 05:03 PM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $3,366 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 04:52 PM | Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.989 | $2,202 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 01:04 PM | Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.830 | $1,254 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 04:44 AM | 0xcfd48c87 | BUY YES | 0.930 | $1,513 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 01:26 AM | Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.949 | $1,783 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 12:29 AM | 0xccefe555 | BUY YES | 0.999 | $13.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 07:50 PM | Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.910 | $1,196 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 05:22 AM | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | SELL NO | 0.716 | $1,300 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 02:55 PM | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? | BUY YES | 0.888 | $1,030 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 01:43 PM | Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.388 | $1,552 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 12:00 AM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.975 | $7,808 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 03:06 PM | Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 19m? | BUY YES | 0.889 | $3,064 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 01:28 PM | Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? | SELL YES | 0.402 | $1,006 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 03:29 AM | Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? | BUY YES | 0.677 | $7,693 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 12:21 AM | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY YES | 0.301 | $1,387 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 4, 11:33 PM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $8,306 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 02:52 AM | 0x42973552 | SELL YES | 0.998 | $4,692 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 02:29 AM | 0x42973552 | BUY YES | 0.960 | $3,218 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 02:29 AM | 0x42973552 | BUY YES | 0.889 | $1,182 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 10:05 PM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $1,768 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 04:07 AM | 0x1b0abcc3 | SELL YES | 0.774 | $1,100 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 03:36 AM | 0x1b0abcc3 | BUY YES | 0.750 | $1,051 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 04:45 AM | Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,380 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 04:43 AM | Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $3,907 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 07:08 PM | 0x8b430559 | BUY YES | 0.999 | $3,222 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 12:01 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $24.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 09:38 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.709 | $7,090 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 08:58 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.684 | $1,519 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 01:19 PM | US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.918 | $4,736 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 04:09 AM | US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.980 | $2,936 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 06:30 PM | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $12.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 04:03 PM | 0x88955146 | BUY YES | 0.987 | $1,016 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 02:45 AM | 0xfbf031f2 | BUY NO | 0.120 | $1,054 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 30, 12:07 AM | Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $3,959 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 11:20 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.352 | $1,921 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 09:51 PM | 0x47b6b130 | BUY YES | 0.970 | $1,261 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 09:03 PM | 0xa96e7118 | BUY NO | 0.997 | $4,985 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 07:08 PM | 0xd8617701 | BUY NO | 0.999 | $20.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 03:28 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.870 | $2,305 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.279 | $1,197 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 29, 02:57 PM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.240 | $1,134 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 29, 02:55 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.939 | $1,362 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 12:35 AM | 0x88955146 | BUY YES | 0.767 | $1,289 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 07:57 PM | 0xcfd48c87 | BUY NO | 0.590 | $1,160 | —— |
| May 28, 12:05 PM | Claude 4.8 released by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.750 | $1,970 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 11:48 PM | Claude 4.8 released by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.980 | $1,895 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 03:03 PM | Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.881 | $1,388 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 04:53 AM | 0x9d5bcba0 | BUY YES | 0.995 | $4,892 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 12:55 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $2,386 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 12:38 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $1,121 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 12:38 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $1,004 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 12:35 AM | 0x92485347 | BUY NO | 0.985 | $1,347 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 02:46 AM | 0x9d5bcba0 | BUY YES | 0.963 | $1,365 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:29 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.619 | $4,718 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:25 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.300 | $1,187 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 02:02 AM | 0xe1483ff3 | BUY NO | 0.819 | $1,670 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 01:01 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.610 | $1,956 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 10:01 PM | 0xdb22a774 | BUY YES | 0.970 | $1,407 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 05:17 PM | 0x0cfac875 | BUY NO | 0.976 | $2,418 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 01:44 PM | 0xc4c3dbcc | BUY YES | 0.760 | $1,649 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 02:45 AM | Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1460? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $1,648 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 02:05 AM | 0xc4c3dbcc | BUY YES | 0.740 | $3,165 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 12:49 AM | 0x0ae8b3f1 | BUY YES | 0.948 | $1,172 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 05:51 PM | 0x5072d0bf | BUY YES | 0.940 | $1,598 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 05:48 PM | Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.998 | $1,572 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 03:14 AM | Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $4,652 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 03:04 AM | 0x5072d0bf | BUY YES | 0.910 | $2,647 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 10:25 PM | Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $3,589 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 08:28 PM | Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $2,386 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 10:02 AM | 0x74ef41e4 | BUY YES | 0.764 | $1,733 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 04:47 AM | 0x17e85726 | BUY NO | 0.850 | $1,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 04:15 AM | Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $3,925 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 04:12 AM | Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.714 | $1,001 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 03:39 AM | 0x0ae8b3f1 | BUY YES | 0.841 | $1,915 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 03:38 AM | 0x5072d0bf | BUY YES | 0.880 | $2,031 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 11:55 PM | 0x74ef41e4 | BUY NO | 0.476 | $1,434 | —— |
| May 15, 05:21 PM | 0xaa145cf5 | SELL NO | 0.997 | $1,868 | — (SELL) |
| May 14, 10:15 PM | Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $1,007 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 09:59 PM | 0x6e17fba7 | BUY YES | 0.990 | $2,767 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 12:16 PM | Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.750 | $2,250 | — (SELL) |
| May 14, 05:46 AM | Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.738 | $1,101 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 05:33 AM | Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.584 | $1,868 | —— |
| May 14, 05:29 AM | Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.712 | $1,787 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 05:26 AM | 0x95e0a414 | BUY NO | 0.640 | $1,080 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 03:04 AM | 0x10e55936 | BUY NO | 0.991 | $1,136 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 04:32 PM | 0x634ac8f3 | BUY YES | 0.990 | $1,056 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 12:08 PM | Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $1,293 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 02:53 AM | Will Michael have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $8,122 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 11:58 PM | Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $1,142 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 11:58 PM | Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $1,193 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 04:26 AM | 0xcc55d1e7 | SELL YES | 0.514 | $1,184 | — (SELL) |
| May 11, 02:19 AM | 0xcc55d1e7 | BUY YES | 0.514 | $1,178 | —— |
| May 11, 01:51 AM | 0xfc63a690 | BUY NO | 0.999 | $3,996 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 01:34 AM | 0x119c5bf6 | SELL YES | 0.801 | $2,243 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 11:31 PM | 0xc3e4bd15 | BUY YES | 0.946 | $1,903 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 11:07 PM | 0xd38f5b9f | BUY NO | 0.939 | $1,218 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 06:13 AM | 0xc3e4bd15 | BUY YES | 0.924 | $1,330 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 06:44 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $7,992 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 07:00 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.426 | $1,073 | —— |
| May 8, 06:57 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.231 | $2,354 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 06:45 PM | 0xa93b28a6 | SELL YES | 0.358 | $1,387 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 06:35 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.600 | $3,000 | —— |
| May 8, 06:33 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.490 | $7,840 | —— |
| May 8, 06:32 PM | 0xa93b28a6 | BUY YES | 0.443 | $1,415 | —— |