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SecondWindCapital

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x8c80…02c3 with our methodology badges per row.

0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
12
lifetime
PnL per $
-63%
historical realized
Win rate
22.7%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$840.0K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 12 resolved trades · -63% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
55
Distinct markets
16
Volume (90d)
$2.52M
avg $45.8K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$1.41M / $1.11M
net direction

Recent trades

last 55 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
May 9, 07:41 PMWill Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO?BUY YES0.200$28.0KCheap band — no rep
May 8, 12:53 PMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.809$86.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 11:12 AMFight to Go the Distance?BUY NO0.710$1,442Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 09:19 AMTrump out as President before 2027?BUY NO0.860$149.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 05:43 AMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.820$31.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 05:43 AMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.820$2,315Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 05:34 AMTrump out as President before 2027?BUY NO0.849$186.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 05:03 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY YES0.330$1,100Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 16, 02:23 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY YES0.330$11.5KKilled band — neutral expectation
Apr 15, 08:57 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY YES0.310$4,218Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 15, 01:04 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY YES0.318$44.1KKilled band — neutral expectation
Apr 13, 10:39 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY YES0.340$2,508Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 13, 10:39 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY YES0.337$18.0KKilled band — neutral expectation
Apr 11, 10:32 PM0xf8734a88BUY0.500$48.8K
Apr 11, 09:52 PM0x4b003509BUY0.700$7,446Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 12:58 PM0x24b24e24BUY0.047$2,128
Apr 11, 11:45 AM0x24b24e24BUY0.149$1,508Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 11, 11:36 AM0x24b24e24BUY0.150$4,448Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 9, 08:33 PM0x44282246BUY0.410$2,933
Apr 9, 01:31 PMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?BUY YES0.300$6,729Cheap band — no rep
Apr 8, 08:37 PMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?SELL YES0.998$411.8K— (SELL)
Apr 8, 08:36 PMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?SELL YES0.998$619.7K— (SELL)
Apr 8, 09:42 AMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY YES0.250$14.6KCheap band — no rep
Apr 7, 02:15 PMWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY YES0.530$1,076
Apr 6, 09:10 AMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY YES0.560$2,855
Apr 5, 06:43 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY YES0.600$4,724
Apr 5, 05:36 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY YES0.590$9,327
Apr 5, 05:00 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY YES0.577$7,328
Apr 3, 09:24 PMWill Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY YES0.011$2,882
Apr 1, 09:30 AMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY YES0.640$1,413Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 08:41 AMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY YES0.630$27.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 08:41 AMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY YES0.630$16.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 03:24 PMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY YES0.700$7,165Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 01:37 PMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY YES0.730$10.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 07:08 AMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY YES0.739$209.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 09:27 AMPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.880$76.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 06:52 AMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY YES0.680$7,492Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 11:01 AMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY YES0.730$25.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 09:27 AMWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY YES0.500$1,180
Mar 29, 08:43 AMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY YES0.638$50.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 07:17 AMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY YES0.620$2,838Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 07:17 AMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY YES0.726$55.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 28, 07:33 PMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY YES0.670$30.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 28, 07:33 PMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY YES0.566$27.0K
Mar 28, 10:47 AMWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL NO0.827$42.8K— (SELL)
Mar 27, 03:46 PMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY YES0.630$12.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 03:46 PMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY YES0.700$1,036Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 01:15 PMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY YES0.620$19.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 07:35 AMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY YES0.710$18.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 07:35 AMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY YES0.620$44.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 05:56 AMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY YES0.690$16.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 26, 05:28 PMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY YES0.709$38.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 26, 09:30 AMWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL NO0.831$35.4K— (SELL)
Mar 24, 02:00 PMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY YES0.530$2,951
Mar 23, 04:12 AMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY YES0.580$25.2K

Markets active in

16 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
US forces enter Iran by December 31?Other14$868.9K+$45.2K
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Other10$810.5K$-428,961
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics2$335.6K+$335.6K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Other3$120.9K+$120.9K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Other11$120.4K+$120.4K
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics2$78.2K$-78,159
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics1$76.8K+$76.8K
0xf8734a881$48.8K+$48.8K
Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO?Other1$28.0K+$28.0K
0x24b24e243$8,084+$8,084
0x4b0035091$7,446+$7,446
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Tech1$6,729+$6,729
0x442822461$2,933+$2,933
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics1$2,882+$2,882
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics2$2,256+$2,256
Fight to Go the Distance?Other1$1,442+$1,442