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Gametheory-394
Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x8b32…5950 with our methodology badges per row.
Resolved trades
30
lifetime
PnL per $
-65%
historical realized
Win rate
25.3%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$204.9K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails
The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 30 resolved trades · -65% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.
Trades (90d)
58
Distinct markets
38
Volume (90d)
$412.6K
avg $7,113 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$97.6K / $315.0K
net direction
Recent trades
last 58 · 90d window| When | Market | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 07:00 PM | Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | BUY NO | 0.573 | $13.9K | — |
| Jul 19, 04:47 PM | Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? | SELL YES | 0.998 | $2,994 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 17, 02:32 PM | Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | SELL NO | 0.570 | $2,343 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 14, 10:50 PM | Will England win on 2026-07-15? | SELL NO | 0.650 | $11.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 9, 10:21 AM | Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | BUY NO | 0.470 | $1,381 | — |
| Jul 7, 03:51 PM | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | BUY NO | 0.270 | $14.8K | Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 5, 07:59 PM | Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05? | SELL NO | 0.450 | $1,106 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 4, 02:40 PM | Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | BUY NO | 0.360 | $1,762 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 3, 03:10 PM | Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | BUY NO | 0.340 | $1,365 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 1, 03:53 PM | Harry Kane: 1+ goals | BUY NO | 0.460 | $1,380 | — |
| Jun 28, 12:35 PM | Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | SELL NO | 0.260 | $1,599 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 27, 05:35 AM | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? | SELL NO | 0.150 | $5,267 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 26, 05:02 PM | Will France win on 2026-06-26? | SELL NO | 0.290 | $8,120 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 26, 02:57 AM | Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | SELL NO | 0.330 | $1,471 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 25, 07:57 PM | Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? | BUY NO | 0.778 | $4,617 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 25, 12:38 AM | Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | BUY NO | 0.470 | $9,118 | — |
| Jun 25, 12:04 AM | Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $15.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 25, 12:04 AM | Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $18.8K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 24, 09:21 PM | Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $17.5K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 24, 09:13 PM | Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $4,318 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 24, 09:13 PM | Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $4,318 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 23, 10:05 PM | Will England win on 2026-06-23? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $20.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 23, 10:31 AM | Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | SELL NO | 0.340 | $1,225 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 23, 05:41 AM | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? | SELL NO | 0.150 | $1,871 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 21, 09:15 PM | Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $4,995 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 21, 09:12 PM | Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $10.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 21, 09:12 PM | Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $9,097 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 21, 09:01 PM | Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $30.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 21, 06:14 PM | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | SELL NO | 0.360 | $1,049 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 21, 03:44 AM | Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | BUY NO | 0.330 | $4,950 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 20, 08:36 PM | Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | BUY NO | 0.340 | $5,440 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 20, 07:27 PM | Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | BUY NO | 0.350 | $2,800 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 02:43 PM | Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | SELL NO | 0.360 | $1,528 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 12:08 PM | Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | SELL NO | 0.190 | $1,514 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 06:35 PM | 0xbd1f142f | SELL NO | 0.999 | $9,990 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 06:21 PM | 0x46ba5785 | SELL NO | 0.999 | $14.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 06:05 PM | 0xbd1f142f | SELL NO | 0.999 | $4,995 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 05:56 PM | 0x46ba5785 | SELL NO | 0.999 | $4,995 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 05:09 PM | 0x13ec2896 | SELL NO | 0.999 | $16.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 06:01 PM | 0x5429a72c | SELL NO | 0.430 | $2,017 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 08:31 PM | 0x053f9573 | SELL NO | 0.999 | $9,990 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 11:45 AM | 0x053f9573 | SELL NO | 0.410 | $1,285 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 07:41 AM | 0x053f9573 | SELL NO | 0.420 | $1,624 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 06:48 PM | 0xb917a2ea | BUY NO | 0.340 | $1,621 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 17, 06:19 PM | 0xb917a2ea | BUY NO | 0.350 | $3,967 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 17, 06:15 PM | 0x1fa4b0ca | SELL NO | 0.999 | $35.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 05:50 PM | 0x1fa4b0ca | SELL NO | 0.999 | $15.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 04:27 PM | 0x1fa4b0ca | SELL NO | 0.999 | $4,106 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 04:15 PM | 0x1fa4b0ca | SELL NO | 0.999 | $9,990 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 04:10 PM | 0x1fa4b0ca | SELL NO | 0.999 | $2,997 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 04:01 PM | 0x1fa4b0ca | SELL NO | 0.999 | $6,993 | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 05:49 AM | 0x78547b8a | SELL NO | 0.749 | $4,305 | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 05:46 AM | 0x78547b8a | SELL NO | 0.752 | $2,445 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 05:31 PM | 0x883ea143 | SELL NO | 0.470 | $1,254 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 12:08 PM | 0x978777ad | SELL NO | 0.350 | $10.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 10:19 AM | 0x9df495a4 | BUY NO | 0.360 | $4,296 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 9, 04:27 PM | 0x149f392f | SELL NO | 0.340 | $1,222 | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 01:42 PM | 0x95c9e927 | SELL NO | 0.999 | $4,995 | — (SELL) |
Markets active in
38 markets · sorted by volume| Market | Category | Trades | Volume | Net BUY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x1fa4b0ca | — | 6 | $74.0K | $-74,037 |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | Other | 4 | $54.9K | $-54,945 |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? | Tech | 2 | $36.3K | $-1,300 |
| Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? | Tech | 3 | $23.7K | $-6,391 |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | Other | 1 | $20.0K | $-19,980 |
| 0x46ba5785 | — | 2 | $19.5K | $-19,480 |
| 0x13ec2896 | — | 1 | $16.5K | $-16,478 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | Tech | 2 | $16.2K | +$11.5K |
| 0xbd1f142f | — | 2 | $15.0K | $-14,985 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | Other | 1 | $14.8K | +$14.8K |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Other | 3 | $13.2K | +$13.2K |
| 0x053f9573 | — | 3 | $12.9K | $-12,899 |
| Will England win on 2026-07-15? | Other | 1 | $11.1K | $-11,145 |
| 0x978777ad | — | 1 | $10.9K | $-10,885 |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | Other | 1 | $9,118 | +$9,118 |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | Other | 1 | $8,120 | $-8,120 |
| 0x78547b8a | — | 2 | $6,750 | $-6,750 |
| 0xb917a2ea | — | 2 | $5,588 | +$5,588 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? | Other | 1 | $5,267 | $-5,267 |
| 0x95c9e927 | — | 1 | $4,995 | $-4,995 |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? | Other | 1 | $4,617 | +$4,617 |
| 0x9df495a4 | — | 1 | $4,296 | +$4,296 |
| Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? | Other | 1 | $2,994 | $-2,994 |
| 0x5429a72c | — | 1 | $2,017 | $-2,017 |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? | Other | 1 | $1,871 | $-1,871 |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | Other | 1 | $1,762 | +$1,762 |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | Other | 1 | $1,599 | $-1,599 |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Other | 1 | $1,528 | $-1,528 |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Other | 1 | $1,514 | $-1,514 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | Tech | 1 | $1,471 | $-1,471 |
Showing top 30 by volume.