0x8931…a90c

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x8931…a90c with our methodology badges per row.

0x8931aa50226eea3e626c961ccffcf176dcf3a90c·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

110

lifetime

PnL per $

-0%

historical realized

Win rate

99.0%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$568.1K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 110 resolved trades · -0% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

180

Distinct markets

133

Volume (90d)

$866.7K

avg $4,815 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$864.1K / $2,609

net direction

Recent trades

last 180 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 20, 10:05 AM	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	SELL NO	0.870	$2,609	— (SELL)
Jul 20, 07:24 AM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.994	$46.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 12:22 AM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.990	$3,235	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 12:14 AM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.992	$4,960	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 12:13 AM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.990	$1,501	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 08:57 PM	Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$9,980	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 08:56 PM	Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$6,388	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 08:05 PM	Will "Hips Don't Lie" be the first song played at the World Cup Finals Halftime Show?	BUY NO	0.997	$2,380	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 08:04 PM	Will "SWIM" be the first song played at the World Cup Finals Halftime Show?	BUY NO	0.998	$3,547	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 06:48 PM	Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match?	BUY YES	0.999	$4,988	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 06:48 PM	Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,052	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 06:39 PM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	BUY YES	0.997	$5,334	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 06:35 PM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	BUY YES	0.997	$2,289	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 01:43 PM	Will Erik Seidel Make the Final Table in the 2026 WSOP Main Event?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,112	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 01:43 PM	Will Alex Foxen Make the Final Table in the 2026 WSOP Main Event?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,113	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 01:43 PM	Will Chris Moneymaker Make the Final Table in the 2026 WSOP Main Event?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,113	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 01:43 PM	Will Kristen Foxen Make the Final Table in the 2026 WSOP Main Event?	BUY NO	0.999	$10.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 01:43 PM	Will Stephen Chidwick Make the Final Table in the 2026 WSOP Main Event?	BUY NO	0.999	$10.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 01:41 PM	Will Daniel Negreanu Make the Final Table in the 2026 WSOP Main Event?	BUY NO	0.999	$12.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 01:41 PM	Will Jeremy Ausmus Make the Final Table in the 2026 WSOP Main Event?	BUY NO	0.999	$12.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 01:40 PM	Will Gerard Piqué Make the Final Table in the 2026 WSOP Main Event?	BUY NO	0.999	$12.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:23 AM	Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in July?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,299	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 04:43 AM	Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$11.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 04:43 AM	Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,238	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 04:39 AM	Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$24.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 04:38 AM	Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.998	$5,478	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 02:47 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,609	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 02:23 AM	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	BUY NO	0.960	$3,197	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 02:23 AM	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	BUY NO	0.958	$7,620	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 12:42 AM	Human moon landing in 2026?	BUY NO	0.973	$1,409	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 12:38 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?	BUY NO	0.991	$1,328	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 12:36 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in July?	BUY NO	0.993	$1,075	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 12:35 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?	BUY NO	0.991	$1,925	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 12:16 AM	Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$62.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 11:10 PM	Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,984	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 04:51 AM	Will Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027?	BUY NO	0.961	$1,744	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 04:41 AM	Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027?	BUY NO	0.962	$1,218	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 04:27 AM	Human moon landing in 2026?	BUY NO	0.972	$1,389	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 04:06 AM	Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY NO	0.983	$1,120	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 03:44 AM	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	BUY NO	0.941	$4,020	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 02:11 AM	Will Ventuals launch a token by September 30 2026?	BUY NO	0.981	$1,381	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 02:03 AM	Ventuals FDV above $1B one day after launch?	BUY NO	0.975	$1,683	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 02:03 AM	Ventuals FDV above $800M one day after launch?	BUY NO	0.976	$1,334	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 12:17 AM	Will Ozuna perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,098	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 04:30 PM	Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY YES	0.960	$1,421	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 04:29 PM	Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY YES	0.970	$5,323	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 04:28 PM	Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY YES	0.970	$10.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 04:26 PM	Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY YES	0.950	$1,026	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 04:23 PM	Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY YES	0.935	$1,160	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 03:24 PM	Will Anuel AA perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,098	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 03:23 PM	Will Bruno Mars perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,291	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 02:54 PM	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,498	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 02:47 PM	Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY YES	0.999	$4,246	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 02:35 PM	Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY YES	0.999	$3,197	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 02:03 PM	Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY YES	0.999	$4,308	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 01:46 PM	Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY YES	0.999	$17.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 12:44 PM	Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY YES	0.989	$21.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 06:32 AM	Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY YES	0.938	$1,071	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 02:44 AM	Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY YES	0.938	$1,190	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 02:21 AM	Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?	BUY YES	0.990	$8,312	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 11:49 PM	Over $27.5M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY YES	0.999	$4,017	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 03:46 PM	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on July 15?	BUY YES	0.999	$3,916	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 02:58 PM	Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY YES	0.898	$8,429	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 02:54 AM	Will Pitbull perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,695	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 02:01 AM	Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY YES	0.895	$3,764	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 01:59 AM	Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY YES	0.875	$6,697	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:44 PM	Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY YES	0.936	$4,145	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:44 PM	Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?	BUY YES	0.913	$6,966	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 03:12 PM	Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	BUY NO	0.999	$6,083	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 10:02 AM	Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,326	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 10:01 AM	Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,199	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:46 AM	Will Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,048	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:05 AM	Will Jared Goff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY NO	0.999	$7,959	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:05 AM	Will Blake Lively attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY NO	0.999	$4,563	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 06:05 AM	Taylor & Travis divorce in 2026?	BUY NO	0.960	$1,817	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 06:03 AM	Will Venezuela become 51st state?	BUY NO	0.972	$6,249	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 06:02 AM	Will Venezuela become 51st state?	BUY NO	0.968	$5,551	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 05:51 AM	JD Vance out as VP by December 31?	BUY NO	0.930	$4,650	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 05:34 AM	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	BUY NO	0.938	$2,530	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 12:24 PM	Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,315	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 12:10 PM	Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?	BUY YES	0.997	$4,007	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 03:31 AM	Will The Weeknd perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	BUY NO	0.971	$1,058	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 02:32 AM	GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?	BUY YES	0.998	$2,784	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 02:45 AM	Will the announcers say "VAR" during the Mexico vs England FIFA World Cup Match?	BUY YES	0.980	$3,622	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 02:24 AM	Will the announcers say "Goal" 60+ times during the Mexico vs England FIFA World Cup Match?	BUY YES	0.990	$8,131	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 11:14 PM	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	BUY NO	0.920	$1,004	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 09:56 PM	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	BUY NO	0.932	$2,277	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 09:46 PM	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 5, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$10.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 03:50 AM	Will Bad Bunny perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	BUY NO	0.931	$2,369	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 06:10 PM	Will Joey Chestnut Eat 80 or More Hot Dogs at Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest 2026(men's)	BUY NO	0.999	$2,778	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 04:43 PM	Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	BUY YES	0.998	$9,938	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 04:30 PM	Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	BUY YES	0.987	$2,970	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 04:29 PM	Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	BUY YES	0.940	$12.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 04:24 PM	Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	BUY YES	0.940	$7,708	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 04:17 PM	Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	BUY YES	0.949	$1,387	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 04:15 PM	Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	BUY YES	0.956	$1,075	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 03:48 PM	Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	BUY YES	0.944	$5,781	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 01:00 PM	Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Meg" during the Spain vs Austria FIFA World Cup Match?	BUY NO	0.999	$9,896	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 02:27 AM	Will Abigail Anderson be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,219	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 02:27 AM	Will Cara Delevingne be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	BUY NO	0.999	$6,579	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 02:27 AM	Will Blake Lively be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,190	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 02:26 AM	Will Gigi Hadid be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,613	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 02:26 AM	Will Abigail Anderson be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,982	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 02:26 AM	Will Brittany Mahomes be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	BUY NO	0.999	$7,943	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 02:26 AM	Will Sabrina Carpenter be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,707	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 01:16 PM	Over $20M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	BUY YES	0.998	$4,620	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 01:15 PM	Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Meg" during the Spain vs Austria FIFA World Cup Match?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,489	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 03:06 AM	Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?	BUY YES	0.899	$1,385	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 02:30 PM	Over $20M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	BUY YES	0.988	$2,963	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 08:07 AM	Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	BUY YES	0.999	$4,995	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 06:49 AM	Over $20M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	BUY YES	0.980	$1,243	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 01:39 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.997	$18.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 04:05 AM	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,057	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 03:50 AM	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?	BUY YES	0.998	$6,673	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 02:35 PM	Will Serena Williams Play at Wimbledon 2026?	BUY YES	0.997	$1,185	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 09:45 AM	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.860	$2,537	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 12:05 AM	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,633	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 12:04 AM	Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,006	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 12:04 AM	Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,734	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 10:58 PM	Over $80M committed to the ALIGN public sale?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,199	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 10:57 PM	Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,001	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 04:02 PM	Theo James announced as next James Bond?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,074	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 02:59 PM	Will STRC hit $100 by June 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,247	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 11:37 AM	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,265	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 11:37 AM	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,998	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 08:53 AM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.050	$5,530	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 28, 05:41 AM	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,729	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 11:16 AM	Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?	BUY NO	0.998	$5,363	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 07:25 AM	Will 4 Anchors and Ilmeria Qualify to The International 2026	BUY NO	0.999	$2,498	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 07:25 AM	Will GamerLegion Qualify to The International 2026	BUY YES	0.998	$2,230	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 05:54 PM	Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?	BUY NO	0.960	$1,772	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 05:52 PM	Jimmy Lai released by June 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$6,175	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 04:27 PM	Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $8.00 on June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.989	$1,371	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 04:25 PM	Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $7.00 on June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,181	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 04:16 PM	Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.50 on June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,340	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 03:48 PM	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.991	$2,067	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 03:02 PM	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,996	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 03:00 PM	Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$2,340	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 10:49 AM	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,831	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 10:46 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$15.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 10:45 AM	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,705	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 10:34 AM	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,848	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 10:32 AM	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.998	$24.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 02:57 AM	Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 25, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,759	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 02:50 AM	Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 25, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,376	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 05:53 PM	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,017	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 05:48 PM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$11.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 05:42 PM	Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,994	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 05:29 PM	Will Marco Rubio be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,198	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 05:29 PM	Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,241	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 05:29 PM	Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,685	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 05:27 PM	Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	BUY NO	0.998	$5,091	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 05:17 PM	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,038	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 05:16 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$4,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 05:02 PM	Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,329	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 05:00 PM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$9,980	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 04:04 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	BUY NO	0.996	$1,107	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 11:59 AM	Anthropic CEO arrested?	BUY NO	0.998	$4,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 11:59 AM	Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,134	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 11:57 AM	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.997	$5,152	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 11:56 AM	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$4,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 02:44 AM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?	BUY NO	0.997	$4,786	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 02:29 AM	Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	BUY NO	0.993	$1,423	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 05:45 PM	Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,146	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 05:44 PM	Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,146	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 05:44 PM	Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,145	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 05:44 PM	Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,940	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 05:43 PM	Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,216	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 05:43 PM	Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,483	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 05:24 PM	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,196	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 05:24 PM	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.998	$4,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 05:23 PM	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,297	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 05:23 PM	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,198	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 05:19 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June?	BUY NO	0.997	$4,885	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 05:18 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.998	$4,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 05:12 PM	Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June?	BUY NO	0.998	$4,412	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 05:11 PM	Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,165	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 05:08 PM	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.998	$7,162	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 08:35 AM	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$9,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 08:24 AM	Starmer out by October 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$3,186	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

133 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?	Other	12	$83.1K	+$83.1K
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	3	$76.9K	+$76.9K
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	Politics	4	$56.6K	+$56.6K
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	Other	7	$41.1K	+$41.1K
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	2	$29.5K	+$29.5K
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	Tech	1	$24.9K	+$24.9K
Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?	Other	5	$19.5K	+$19.5K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Tech	1	$18.7K	+$18.7K
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Tech	2	$16.4K	+$16.4K
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Other	2	$15.0K	+$15.0K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Tech	1	$15.0K	+$15.0K
Will Jeremy Ausmus Make the Final Table in the 2026 WSOP Main Event?	Tech	1	$12.9K	+$12.9K
Will Daniel Negreanu Make the Final Table in the 2026 WSOP Main Event?	Tech	1	$12.8K	+$12.8K
Will Gerard Piqué Make the Final Table in the 2026 WSOP Main Event?	Tech	1	$12.8K	+$12.8K
Will Venezuela become 51st state?	Other	2	$11.8K	+$11.8K
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Other	1	$11.5K	+$11.5K
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Meg" during the Spain vs Austria FIFA World Cup Match?	Tech	2	$11.4K	+$11.4K
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	2	$10.8K	+$10.8K
Will Kristen Foxen Make the Final Table in the 2026 WSOP Main Event?	Tech	1	$10.6K	+$10.6K
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 5, 2026?	Tech	1	$10.5K	+$10.5K
Will Stephen Chidwick Make the Final Table in the 2026 WSOP Main Event?	Tech	1	$10.5K	+$10.5K
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Other	1	$9,990	+$9,990
Over $20M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	Other	3	$8,826	+$8,826
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?	Other	1	$8,312	+$8,312
Will the announcers say "Goal" 60+ times during the Mexico vs England FIFA World Cup Match?	Other	1	$8,131	+$8,131
Will Jared Goff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Other	1	$7,959	+$7,959
Will Brittany Mahomes be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	Tech	1	$7,943	+$7,943
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	Politics	2	$7,623	+$7,623
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	Politics	2	$7,282	+$7,282
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?	Other	1	$7,162	+$7,162

Showing top 30 by volume.