Back to whale feed

umeax

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x86d2…731d with our methodology badges per row.

0x86d2d490bcac9fccea02a44c48272008e0c4731d·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
68
lifetime
PnL per $
+3%
historical realized
Win rate
68.4%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$3.16M
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 68 resolved trades · 3% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
94
Distinct markets
41
Volume (90d)
$4.38M
avg $46.6K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$4.29M / $92.3K
net direction

Recent trades

last 94 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 19, 05:04 PMWill Spain win on 2026-07-19?BUY NO0.575$4,923
Jul 19, 04:57 PMWill Spain win on 2026-07-19?BUY NO0.575$7,115
Jul 19, 04:57 PMWill Spain win on 2026-07-19?BUY NO0.575$52.2K
Jul 19, 03:22 PMWill Spain win on 2026-07-19?BUY NO0.575$79.1K
Jul 19, 01:22 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.409$64.4K
Jul 19, 11:04 AMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.591$70.6K
Jul 18, 05:50 PMWill France vs. England end in a draw?BUY NO0.770$2,207Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 02:00 PMWill France vs. England end in a draw?BUY NO0.770$83.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 02:00 PMWill France vs. England end in a draw?BUY NO0.770$52.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 03:14 PMWill France vs. England end in a draw?BUY NO0.750$285.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 02:04 AMWill England win on 2026-07-15?BUY NO0.649$52.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 02:04 AMWill England win on 2026-07-15?BUY NO0.647$33.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 06:14 PMWill Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?BUY NO0.755$12.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 05:19 PMWill Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?BUY NO0.760$56.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 05:19 PMWill Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?BUY NO0.760$99.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 06:42 AMWill Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?BUY NO0.757$2,295Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 06:42 AMWill Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?BUY NO0.757$176.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 04:48 AMWill France win on 2026-07-09?BUY NO0.380$4,487Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 9, 04:48 AMWill France win on 2026-07-09?BUY NO0.380$10.2KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jul 9, 04:48 AMWill France win on 2026-07-09?BUY NO0.380$9,100Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 8, 02:15 PMWill Spain win on 2026-07-10?BUY NO0.400$20.5KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jul 8, 05:29 AMWill France win on 2026-07-09?BUY NO0.380$13.4KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jul 8, 05:29 AMWill France win on 2026-07-09?BUY NO0.380$32.3KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 07:30 PMWill Colombia win on 2026-07-07?BUY NO0.590$61.2K
Jul 7, 03:09 PMWill Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?BUY NO0.690$161.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 01:37 PMWill Spain win on 2026-07-06?BUY NO0.490$3,038
Jul 6, 05:54 AMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-07?BUY NO0.290$12.4KCheap band — no rep
Jul 6, 05:13 AMWill Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?BUY NO0.740$198.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 07:36 PMWill Spain win on 2026-07-06?BUY NO0.490$37.9K
Jul 5, 07:36 PMWill Spain win on 2026-07-06?BUY NO0.490$43.0K
Jul 5, 01:40 PMWill Brazil win on 2026-07-05?SELL NO0.450$92.3K— (SELL)
Jul 5, 12:23 PMWill Brazil win on 2026-07-05?BUY NO0.460$7,833
Jul 4, 05:40 AMWill Canada vs. Morocco end in a draw?BUY NO0.720$2,469Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 05:07 AMWill Canada vs. Morocco end in a draw?BUY NO0.720$176.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 05:25 PMWill Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?BUY NO0.740$210.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 05:38 PMWill Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?BUY NO0.750$27.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 05:38 PMWill Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?BUY NO0.750$5,246Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 05:38 PMWill Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?BUY NO0.754$133.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 05:38 PMWill Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?BUY NO0.750$33.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 02:49 PMWill Switzerland vs. Algeria end in a draw?BUY NO0.710$132.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 02:49 PMWill Switzerland vs. Algeria end in a draw?BUY NO0.708$19.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 11:47 AMWill Spain win on 2026-07-02?BUY NO0.260$5,781Cheap band — no rep
Jun 30, 03:00 PMWill France win on 2026-06-30?BUY NO0.240$2,457Cheap band — no rep
Jun 30, 12:52 PMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-30?BUY NO0.570$6,414
Jun 30, 10:17 AMWill France win on 2026-06-30?BUY NO0.240$1,557Cheap band — no rep
Jun 29, 07:49 PMWill Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?BUY NO0.690$12.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 07:49 PMWill Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?BUY NO0.690$170.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 07:34 PMWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?BUY NO0.590$9,014
Jun 29, 07:34 PMWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?BUY NO0.590$12.2K
Jun 29, 07:34 PMWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?BUY NO0.590$12.1K
Jun 29, 07:34 PMWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?BUY NO0.590$69.1K
Jun 29, 12:49 PMWill Brazil win on 2026-06-29?BUY NO0.450$31.3K
Jun 29, 12:38 PMWill Brazil win on 2026-06-29?BUY NO0.440$10.1K
Jun 29, 12:38 PMWill Brazil win on 2026-06-29?BUY NO0.440$57.0K
Jun 29, 12:38 PMWill Brazil win on 2026-06-29?BUY NO0.440$90.6K
Jun 28, 02:32 PMWill Canada win on 2026-06-28?BUY NO0.420$43.0K
Jun 28, 02:32 PMWill Canada win on 2026-06-28?BUY NO0.420$37.3K
Jun 28, 05:54 AMWill South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?BUY NO0.740$196.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 10:00 AMWill Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?BUY NO0.540$25.2K
Jun 27, 06:39 AMWill Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?BUY NO0.550$89.7K
Jun 27, 04:26 AMWill Portugal win on 2026-06-27?BUY NO0.490$88.1K
Jun 26, 01:34 PMWill Norway win on 2026-06-26?BUY NO0.800$15.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 01:34 PMWill Norway win on 2026-06-26?BUY NO0.800$45.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 01:34 PMWill Norway win on 2026-06-26?BUY NO0.800$70.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 10:10 AMWill France win on 2026-06-26?BUY NO0.400$12.7KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 25, 07:15 PMWill Germany win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.409$7,121
Jun 25, 07:58 AMWill Germany win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.349$9,259Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 25, 07:49 AMWill Germany win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.349$5,965Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 25, 06:03 AMWill Germany win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.349$16.9KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 25, 05:46 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.470$50.3K
Jun 25, 05:46 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.470$14.7K
Jun 25, 05:27 AMWill Germany win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.348$41.5KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 25, 05:16 AMWill Germany win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.347$22.6KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 24, 05:55 AMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-24?BUY NO0.490$15.4K
Jun 24, 05:55 AMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-24?BUY NO0.490$42.9K
Jun 24, 04:47 AMWill Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?BUY NO0.690$16.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 04:47 AMWill Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?BUY NO0.690$64.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 05:15 PMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-24?BUY NO0.500$35.6K
Jun 23, 05:15 PMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-24?BUY NO0.500$18.6K
Jun 23, 05:15 PMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-24?BUY NO0.500$17.3K
Jun 22, 03:12 PMWill Norway win on 2026-06-22?BUY NO0.560$47.3K
Jun 22, 03:12 PMWill Norway win on 2026-06-22?BUY NO0.560$48.6K
Jun 22, 11:07 AMWill Norway win on 2026-06-22?BUY NO0.560$88.9K
Jun 21, 02:30 PMWill Belgium win on 2026-06-21?BUY NO0.320$2,429Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 21, 12:40 PMWill Belgium win on 2026-06-21?BUY NO0.320$23.0KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 13, 05:51 AMWill Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?BUY NO0.870$2,875Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 09:09 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-12?BUY NO0.530$9,485
Jun 12, 09:07 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-12?BUY NO0.530$20.9K
Jun 12, 07:56 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-12?BUY NO0.530$27.4K
Jun 12, 04:58 AMWill Brazil win on 2026-06-13?BUY NO0.410$6,848
Jun 11, 11:09 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-12?BUY NO0.500$10.3K
Jun 11, 10:51 AMWill Czechia win on 2026-06-11?BUY NO0.670$4,801Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 06:41 PMWill Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw?BUY NO0.840$1,936Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:54 PMWill Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?BUY NO0.200$5,400Cheap band — no rep

Markets active in

41 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will France vs. England end in a draw?Other4$423.9K+$423.9K
Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?Tech5$347.3K+$347.3K
Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?Other1$210.6K+$210.6K
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?Other4$199.8K+$199.8K
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?Tech1$198.7K+$198.7K
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?Other1$196.2K+$196.2K
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?Other4$188.9K+$188.9K
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?Other3$184.9K+$184.9K
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?Crypto2$183.4K+$183.4K
Will Canada vs. Morocco end in a draw?Other2$179.4K+$179.4K
Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?Other1$161.8K+$161.8K
Will Switzerland vs. Algeria end in a draw?Other2$152.3K+$152.3K
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?Tech4$143.3K+$143.3K
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$135.0K+$135.0K
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?Other3$131.0K+$131.0K
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?Other5$129.8K+$129.8K
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?Other2$114.9K+$114.9K
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?Other6$103.3K+$103.3K
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?Crypto4$102.4K+$102.4K
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?Other2$100.2K$-84,513
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?Other1$88.1K+$88.1K
Will England win on 2026-07-15?Other2$85.7K+$85.7K
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?Tech3$84.0K+$84.0K
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?Other2$80.8K+$80.8K
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?Other2$80.3K+$80.3K
Will France win on 2026-07-09?Other5$69.5K+$69.5K
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Other4$68.1K+$68.1K
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?Other2$65.0K+$65.0K
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?Other1$61.2K+$61.2K
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?Other2$25.4K+$25.4K

Showing top 30 by volume.