Back to whale feed

thefakenick

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x85b9…906d with our methodology badges per row.

0x85b9e9226c56d4f2a3ff92c56b745f42498f906d·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
51
lifetime
PnL per $
-2%
historical realized
Win rate
82.3%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$233.3K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 51 resolved trades · -2% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
61
Distinct markets
34
Volume (90d)
$279.5K
avg $4,582 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$250.0K / $29.5K
net direction

Recent trades

last 61 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 20, 12:34 PMWill Cruz Azul win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?BUY NO0.777$1,902Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:26 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.730$1,211Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:26 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.705$7,700Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:09 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.658$10.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:09 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.640$10.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:52 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.850$6,960Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:52 PMWill the final be ESP vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.645$2,800Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:52 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.248$2,229Cheap band — no rep
Jul 15, 08:48 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.205$1,020— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:45 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.094$1,877Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 15, 08:15 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.820$6,808Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:15 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.253$5,620Cheap band — no rep
Jul 15, 08:15 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.820$6,576Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 07:19 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.651$3,310Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 07:19 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.247$1,688Cheap band — no rep
Jul 14, 07:09 PMWill Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?SELL NO0.980$1,265— (SELL)
Jul 14, 07:09 PMWill Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?SELL NO0.979$5,615— (SELL)
Jul 14, 07:07 PMWill Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?SELL NO0.980$7,495— (SELL)
Jul 12, 01:10 AMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.184$7,197Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 12, 01:10 AMWill Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.985$9,850Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 11:09 PMWill A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?BUY NO0.940$1,448Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 11:09 PMWill A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?BUY NO0.950$2,375Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 10:23 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.863$5,370— (SELL)
Jul 11, 10:16 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.889$5,533Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 10:02 PMWill A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?BUY NO0.930$1,646Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 09:36 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.857$1,692Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 09:30 PMWill Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.985$19.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 09:23 PMWill Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.977$5,167Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 09:23 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.309$3,972Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 04:15 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.839$1,680Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 11:41 AMWill Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.600$1,200— (SELL)
Jul 7, 01:20 AMWill USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?BUY NO0.990$1,267Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 01:20 AMWill Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.025$1,344
Jul 7, 01:20 AMWill Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.023$2,032
Jul 7, 12:09 AMWill USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.850$1,720Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 12:09 AMWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.974$11.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 03:03 AMWill Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?BUY NO0.964$17.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 03:02 AMWill Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?BUY NO0.964$7,712Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 01:36 AMWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.964$9,670Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 01:36 AMWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.962$9,640Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 12:36 AMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.960$4,800Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 12:07 AMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.945$4,750Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 09:19 PMWill France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.663$1,020Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 09:19 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.278$1,305Cheap band — no rep
Jun 30, 09:19 PMWill France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.920$1,725Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 02:33 AMWill Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.979$2,958Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 01:02 AMWill Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.986$2,961Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 01:02 AMWill Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.474$1,715
Jun 29, 09:11 PMWill Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.738$1,125Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 08:51 PMWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.929$4,680— (SELL)
Jun 29, 05:29 PMWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.943$4,750Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 01:16 AMWill Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.860$1,720— (SELL)
Jun 25, 04:46 AMWill Ecuador be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?BUY YES0.803$1,841Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 11:11 AMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.988$9,880Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 11:44 AMWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY NO0.770$1,069Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 01:18 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.550$1,116— (SELL)
May 21, 02:44 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.499$2,038
May 13, 12:24 PM0x2f6a5475BUY NO0.930$1,023Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 08:56 AMStarmer out by May 15, 2026?BUY NO0.865$1,384Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 04:20 AMWill the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.982$1,367Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 01:29 AMWill the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.994$11.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

34 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other9$45.6K+$43.5K
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other5$25.2K+$14.4K
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Other2$25.1K+$25.1K
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$24.9K+$24.9K
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$19.3K+$19.3K
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Tech3$13.4K+$13.4K
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Other2$13.1K$-13,109
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports1$11.9K+$11.9K
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$11.7K+$11.7K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Crypto1$9,880+$9,880
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$9,850+$9,850
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$9,550+$9,550
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$9,430+$70
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other3$8,587+$8,587
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$5,919+$5,919
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?Other3$5,469+$5,469
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$3,376+$3,376
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports2$3,154+$923
Will the final be ESP vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$2,800+$2,800
Will Cruz Azul win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?Other1$1,902+$1,902
Will Ecuador be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?Other1$1,841+$1,841
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$1,725+$1,725
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$1,720+$1,720
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Tech1$1,720$-1,720
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Crypto1$1,715+$1,715
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?Other1$1,384+$1,384
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports1$1,367+$1,367
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Other1$1,267+$1,267
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Other1$1,265$-1,265
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$1,200$-1,200

Showing top 30 by volume.