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lucio12z16
Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x82ff…f0c4 with our methodology badges per row.
Resolved trades
5
lifetime
PnL per $
-100%
historical realized
Win rate
0.0%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$9,988
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails
The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 5 resolved trades · -100% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.
Trades (90d)
107
Distinct markets
43
Volume (90d)
$426.8K
avg $3,988 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$206.0K / $220.8K
net direction
Recent trades
last 107 · 90d window| When | Market | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 02:25 AM | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $5,996 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 02:24 AM | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.198 | $4,080 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 9, 02:41 AM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.162 | $16.2K | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 6, 01:59 AM | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL YES | 0.403 | $16.4K | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 03:15 AM | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.325 | $2,390 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 21, 03:15 AM | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.316 | $2,891 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 08:34 AM | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.241 | $1,407 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 18, 08:34 AM | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.240 | $3,065 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 13, 01:58 AM | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL YES | 0.607 | $12.9K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 22, 01:33 AM | Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | SELL | 0.770 | $1,604 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 22, 12:49 AM | Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.730 | $1,521 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 12:48 AM | 76ers vs. Celtics | BUY | 0.710 | $1,478 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 03:57 AM | 0xa9a9acb4 | SELL | 0.650 | $1,282 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 03:53 AM | 0xa9a9acb4 | BUY | 0.530 | $1,045 | — |
| Apr 21, 02:39 AM | Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,805 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 19, 02:53 AM | 0x620f2c52 | SELL | 0.950 | $1,889 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 19, 02:44 AM | 0x620f2c52 | BUY | 0.800 | $1,590 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 16, 03:13 AM | 0x6263524a | SELL | 0.780 | $3,819 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 16, 02:41 AM | 0x92131350 | SELL | 0.999 | $2,743 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 16, 02:08 AM | 0x92131350 | BUY | 0.910 | $2,499 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 16, 01:49 AM | Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | BUY YES | 0.209 | $2,482 | Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 16, 01:47 AM | Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.058 | $6,179 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 15, 04:21 AM | 0x5ba196c0 | SELL | 0.900 | $1,926 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 14, 12:43 AM | Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | BUY YES | 0.204 | $3,333 | Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 12, 01:57 AM | Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $1,125 | Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 12, 01:56 AM | Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.061 | $1,832 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 11, 01:56 AM | Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $1,243 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 10, 04:07 PM | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.115 | $1,367 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 9, 02:15 AM | 0xc31f282a | BUY | 0.830 | $10.2K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 02:08 AM | 0xa7e1a684 | BUY | 0.288 | $1,407 | Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 9, 02:05 AM | 0xa7e1a684 | BUY | 0.418 | $1,231 | — |
| Apr 9, 02:03 AM | 0xa7e1a684 | BUY | 0.400 | $1,101 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 9, 02:01 AM | 0xa7e1a684 | BUY | 0.380 | $1,119 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 9, 01:56 AM | 0xa7e1a684 | BUY | 0.470 | $1,850 | — |
| Apr 9, 01:47 AM | 0xa7e1a684 | BUY | 0.440 | $1,224 | — |
| Apr 9, 01:07 AM | 0xc31f282a | BUY | 0.760 | $1,509 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 04:40 AM | 0x177c0cf6 | SELL | 0.971 | $5,276 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 04:10 AM | 0x07c0b603 | SELL | 0.995 | $12.7K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 03:31 AM | 0x07c0b603 | BUY | 0.949 | $8,196 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 03:30 AM | 0x177c0cf6 | BUY | 0.861 | $1,314 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 03:26 AM | 0x177c0cf6 | BUY | 0.831 | $1,545 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 03:52 AM | Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.057 | $1,937 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 7, 03:43 AM | 0x035d5903 | SELL | 0.900 | $1,362 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 03:32 AM | 0x035d5903 | SELL | 0.690 | $1,044 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 03:31 AM | 0x035d5903 | SELL | 0.820 | $2,482 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 03:30 AM | 0x035d5903 | SELL | 0.790 | $4,782 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 02:47 AM | 0x035d5903 | BUY | 0.198 | $2,591 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 7, 02:38 AM | 0x035d5903 | BUY | 0.448 | $1,781 | — |
| Apr 7, 02:14 AM | 0x035d5903 | BUY | 0.350 | $1,716 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 7, 02:12 AM | 0x035d5903 | BUY | 0.360 | $1,294 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 7, 02:12 AM | 0x035d5903 | BUY | 0.397 | $1,597 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 7, 01:50 AM | 0x035d5903 | BUY | 0.510 | $1,206 | — |
| Apr 7, 01:15 AM | 0x035d5903 | BUY | 0.690 | $1,436 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 01:09 AM | 0x5d62c7c6 | SELL | 0.870 | $1,305 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 01:08 AM | 0x5d62c7c6 | SELL | 0.870 | $1,305 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 12:58 AM | 0x886e32ed | SELL | 0.530 | $1,763 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 12:00 AM | 0x886e32ed | BUY | 0.410 | $1,249 | — |
| Apr 6, 11:49 PM | 0x22259c08 | SELL | 0.610 | $1,085 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 11:43 PM | 0x22259c08 | SELL | 0.550 | $1,956 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 10:58 PM | 0x22259c08 | BUY | 0.490 | $1,013 | — |
| Apr 6, 10:37 PM | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.124 | $5,456 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 6, 10:36 PM | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.122 | $1,470 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 6, 04:31 AM | 0x73ade848 | SELL | 0.736 | $2,113 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 01:26 AM | 0xcc196612 | SELL | 0.749 | $2,814 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 01:07 AM | 0xcc196612 | SELL | 0.670 | $1,810 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 01:02 AM | 0xcc196612 | BUY | 0.575 | $2,271 | — |
| Apr 6, 12:20 AM | 0xcc196612 | BUY | 0.900 | $4,576 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 12:25 AM | 0x8ef8615a | BUY | 0.460 | $1,159 | — |
| Apr 4, 11:57 PM | 0x836b6b41 | BUY | 0.610 | $1,938 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 11:51 PM | 0x836b6b41 | BUY | 0.660 | $2,614 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 11:33 PM | 0x836b6b41 | BUY | 0.690 | $1,464 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 06:05 AM | 0xbbaecb9c | SELL | 0.999 | $2,127 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 04:41 AM | 0x250c1689 | SELL | 0.990 | $30.7K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 04:14 AM | 0xf8f1cb66 | SELL | 0.948 | $1,418 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 03:44 AM | 0x250c1689 | BUY | 0.950 | $12.1K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 03:26 AM | 0xa3e75d9b | SELL | 0.438 | $1,158 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 02:34 AM | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.380 | $1,988 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 2, 03:40 AM | 0x4118c9fb | SELL | 0.999 | $16.5K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 2, 12:48 AM | 0xb540de24 | BUY | 0.320 | $1,881 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 1, 06:35 AM | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.380 | $2,003 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 1, 05:33 AM | 0xca9bc00b | SELL | 0.999 | $4,993 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 05:33 AM | 0x31771980 | SELL | 0.999 | $1,998 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 05:26 AM | 0xca9bc00b | SELL | 0.990 | $4,950 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 05:07 AM | 0x31771980 | BUY | 0.949 | $1,897 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 04:54 AM | 0x31771980 | SELL | 0.870 | $1,478 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 04:42 AM | 0x31771980 | BUY | 0.700 | $1,189 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 03:15 AM | 0xe2867614 | SELL | 0.621 | $4,479 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 02:21 AM | 0x0f30a3b7 | SELL | 0.999 | $3,087 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 02:11 AM | 0xf440e622 | SELL | 0.999 | $2,045 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 01:52 AM | 0x0f30a3b7 | BUY | 0.970 | $2,997 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 01:47 AM | 0xf440e622 | BUY | 0.977 | $2,000 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 01:45 AM | Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? | SELL | 0.337 | $1,010 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 01:43 AM | 0xf132bde3 | SELL | 0.939 | $1,511 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 01:29 AM | 0xf132bde3 | BUY | 0.708 | $1,140 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 11:57 PM | 0x43ec63bd | SELL | 0.510 | $2,441 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 30, 11:30 PM | 0x43ec63bd | BUY | 0.430 | $1,132 | — |
| Mar 30, 11:40 AM | 0x4290a4aa | SELL NO | 0.972 | $51.3K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 30, 03:48 AM | 0xc41ada61 | SELL | 0.707 | $2,078 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 30, 03:13 AM | 0xc41ada61 | BUY | 0.580 | $1,610 | — |
| Mar 30, 01:39 AM | 0x4290a4aa | SELL NO | 0.949 | $2,087 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 02:15 AM | 0x4290a4aa | BUY NO | 0.898 | $3,648 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 27, 01:01 AM | 0x36912c98 | BUY NO | 0.696 | $1,200 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 26, 11:54 PM | 0x4290a4aa | BUY NO | 0.948 | $15.8K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 26, 04:46 AM | 0x8d981706 | SELL | 0.999 | $1,010 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 25, 01:40 AM | 0x4290a4aa | BUY NO | 0.950 | $4,000 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 25, 01:37 AM | 0x4290a4aa | BUY NO | 0.945 | $10.0K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 25, 01:35 AM | 0x36912c98 | BUY NO | 0.798 | $10.4K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
Markets active in
43 markets · sorted by volume| Market | Category | Trades | Volume | Net BUY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4290a4aa | — | 6 | $86.9K | $-19,910 |
| 0x250c1689 | — | 2 | $42.8K | $-18,537 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Sports | 7 | $36.2K | +$3,434 |
| 0x035d5903 | — | 11 | $21.3K | +$1,951 |
| 0x07c0b603 | — | 2 | $20.9K | $-4,531 |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Sports | 3 | $16.9K | $-8,955 |
| 0x4118c9fb | — | 1 | $16.5K | $-16,508 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Other | 1 | $16.2K | +$16.2K |
| 0xc31f282a | — | 2 | $11.7K | +$11.7K |
| 0x36912c98 | — | 2 | $11.6K | +$11.6K |
| 0xcc196612 | — | 4 | $11.5K | +$2,224 |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | Sports | 5 | $9,988 | +$9,988 |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Sports | 3 | $9,948 | +$9,948 |
| 0xca9bc00b | — | 2 | $9,943 | $-9,943 |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Sports | 3 | $8,293 | +$8,293 |
| 0x177c0cf6 | — | 3 | $8,135 | $-2,417 |
| 0xa7e1a684 | — | 6 | $7,931 | +$7,931 |
| 0x31771980 | — | 4 | $6,562 | $-389 |
| 0x0f30a3b7 | — | 2 | $6,084 | $-90 |
| 0x836b6b41 | — | 3 | $6,017 | +$6,017 |
| 0x92131350 | — | 2 | $5,242 | $-244 |
| 0xe2867614 | — | 1 | $4,479 | $-4,479 |
| 0x22259c08 | — | 3 | $4,054 | $-2,027 |
| 0xf440e622 | — | 2 | $4,045 | $-45 |
| 0x6263524a | — | 1 | $3,819 | $-3,819 |
| 0xc41ada61 | — | 2 | $3,688 | $-468 |
| 0x43ec63bd | — | 2 | $3,573 | $-1,310 |
| 0x620f2c52 | — | 2 | $3,479 | $-298 |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | Tech | 2 | $3,124 | $-83 |
| 0x886e32ed | — | 2 | $3,012 | $-515 |
Showing top 30 by volume.