Stonktrader

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x73e3…3239 with our methodology badges per row.

0x73e35ce0b7e36ef3ce29ebd12b30b28007383239·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-16%

historical realized

Win rate

74.0%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$232.6K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 27 resolved trades · -16% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

126

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$1.01M

avg $8,033 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$837.3K / $174.9K

net direction

Recent trades

last 126 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 20, 01:12 AM	Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,029	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 12:47 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.930	$10.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 03:48 PM	Will G2 Qualify to LAN BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?	BUY NO	0.953	$3,821	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 03:43 PM	Will Spirit Qualify to LAN BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?	BUY NO	0.800	$3,332	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 04:07 PM	Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$4,995	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 04:00 PM	Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.995	$2,866	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 07:30 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.915	$8,381	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 01:41 AM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.620	$2,094	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 06:51 PM	Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?	BUY YES	0.500	$5,000	—
Jul 4, 10:01 PM	Will Jason Kelce be a groomsman at Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.999	$1,142	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 06:23 PM	Will Jason Kelce be a groomsman at Taylor Swift's wedding?	SELL YES	0.904	$1,053	— (SELL)
Jul 2, 07:11 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 29 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,314	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 07:10 PM	0xdf16a85a	BUY NO	0.998	$1,123	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 12:30 PM	Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in June?	BUY YES	0.980	$2,355	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 12:30 PM	Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	BUY NO	0.990	$8,178	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 08:19 PM	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	BUY YES	0.998	$4,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 08:23 PM	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 30?	BUY YES	0.968	$2,904	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 08:23 PM	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 30?	BUY YES	0.986	$9,141	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 01:57 PM	Will "The Invite" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	BUY YES	0.999	$1,235	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 11:52 AM	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.930	$6,716	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 03:18 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY YES	0.095	$1,253	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 22, 01:08 AM	Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June?	BUY NO	0.999	$7,081	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 08:27 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30?	BUY YES	0.988	$4,968	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 08:26 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?	BUY YES	0.997	$9,143	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:20 PM	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?	BUY NO	0.997	$2,329	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:05 PM	Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+?	BUY NO	0.990	$2,193	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:02 PM	Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?	BUY NO	0.994	$2,343	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 12:22 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,084	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 12:21 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.997	$3,589	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 06:33 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.997	$39.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 02:13 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.994	$21.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 05:11 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.999	$40.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 01:26 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.715	$3,574	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 01:26 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.708	$14.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 01:24 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.291	$6,459	Cheap band — no rep
May 31, 10:01 PM	0xdb503370	BUY YES	0.999	$2,198	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 08:26 PM	Will Mark Brnovich be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?	BUY NO	0.999	$12.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 12:28 PM	0xad11c116	BUY NO	0.999	$34.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 12:15 PM	0xad11c116	BUY NO	0.999	$20.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 12:15 PM	0x5f5818ce	SELL NO	0.999	$9,990	— (SELL)
May 30, 12:15 PM	0x59a37ea3	SELL NO	0.999	$10.8K	— (SELL)
May 30, 12:13 PM	0xad11c116	BUY NO	0.999	$20.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 01:16 AM	0xc7d6aa9c	BUY YES	0.879	$1,733	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 12:17 AM	0x552a1017	BUY NO	0.999	$1,854	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 12:14 AM	0x1e618113	BUY NO	0.999	$2,832	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 12:04 AM	0xf7737945	BUY NO	0.999	$1,020	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 12:04 AM	0x5a92ba06	BUY NO	0.999	$1,279	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 09:27 PM	0x5ab47d76	BUY NO	0.999	$9,964	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 09:02 PM	0x59a37ea3	BUY NO	0.990	$9,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 06:01 PM	0x7545551f	SELL YES	0.999	$4,796	— (SELL)
May 29, 06:01 PM	0x7545551f	BUY YES	0.997	$3,987	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 10:00 PM	0xdeb0a6ab	BUY NO	0.995	$7,441	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:58 PM	0x5f5818ce	BUY NO	0.970	$9,700	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 02:16 PM	0xb2e7dd21	BUY YES	0.189	$1,892	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 28, 02:16 PM	0xb2e7dd21	BUY YES	0.210	$1,120	Cheap band — no rep
May 27, 08:44 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?	BUY YES	0.997	$1,994	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 08:57 PM	0xcf686573	BUY YES	0.997	$3,140	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 01:19 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.987	$2,369	— (SELL)
May 24, 04:18 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	SELL YES	0.150	$1,264	— (SELL)
May 24, 01:16 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY YES	0.130	$1,134	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 23, 04:06 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	SELL YES	0.998	$5,085	— (SELL)
May 23, 03:41 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	BUY YES	0.999	$3,291	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 01:24 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	BUY YES	0.999	$14.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 10:00 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.842	$1,208	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 09:51 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	BUY YES	0.860	$2,150	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 03:10 PM	0x7d45c7a5	BUY NO	0.999	$1,186	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 03:09 PM	0x72193c30	BUY NO	0.999	$2,397	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 03:09 PM	0x8410eaa1	BUY NO	0.999	$1,031	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 03:09 PM	0x49d6fdd2	BUY NO	0.999	$1,192	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 10:07 PM	0xc56c1900	BUY NO	0.999	$1,244	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 10:07 PM	0xc56c1900	BUY NO	0.999	$4,074	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 10:07 PM	0xc56c1900	BUY NO	0.999	$2,178	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 04:00 PM	0xcef981d4	BUY YES	0.860	$1,819	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 02:06 PM	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,457	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 02:06 PM	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,541	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 12:48 AM	0x42e1d3ca	BUY NO	0.960	$1,233	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 11:26 PM	0xf398b0e5	BUY YES	0.861	$3,459	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 06:06 PM	0x0b96b013	BUY YES	0.999	$15.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 06:05 PM	0x81f3cdb2	BUY YES	0.999	$3,563	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 06:05 PM	0xfe94ae52	BUY YES	0.999	$4,362	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 06:05 PM	0x4def2f59	BUY YES	0.999	$2,667	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 06:05 PM	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	BUY YES	0.999	$10.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 06:05 PM	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	BUY YES	0.999	$13.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 06:04 PM	0x0b96b013	BUY YES	0.998	$2,587	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 02:14 PM	0x330d5053	BUY YES	0.500	$1,000	—
May 19, 02:03 PM	0x330d5053	BUY YES	0.902	$1,303	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 02:02 AM	0x084aec77	BUY NO	0.999	$30.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 02:01 AM	0x084aec77	BUY NO	0.999	$48.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 02:00 AM	0x084aec77	BUY NO	0.999	$59.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 02:00 AM	0x084aec77	BUY NO	0.999	$35.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 01:59 AM	0x084aec77	BUY NO	0.999	$2,997	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 01:59 AM	0x084aec77	BUY NO	0.999	$35.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 01:58 AM	0x084aec77	BUY NO	0.997	$3,987	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 01:57 AM	0x084aec77	BUY NO	0.999	$1,009	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 03:24 AM	0xc3e1eb8d	BUY YES	0.999	$1,406	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 03:24 AM	0xdb8bb6c5	BUY YES	0.997	$1,895	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 08:06 PM	0x4382d7a5	BUY YES	0.999	$20.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 05:03 AM	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,984	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 03:12 AM	0x6dfdcab0	BUY YES	0.990	$6,527	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 03:12 AM	0x6dfdcab0	BUY YES	0.890	$2,562	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 12:01 AM	0xf305528c	BUY YES	0.999	$67.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 12:00 AM	0xf305528c	BUY YES	0.999	$4,449	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 11:18 PM	0x1bb8bd43	BUY NO	0.290	$1,093	Cheap band — no rep
May 15, 05:04 PM	0x7f4378c2	SELL NO	0.999	$1,074	— (SELL)
May 15, 05:04 PM	0x5341e90b	SELL NO	0.999	$16.3K	— (SELL)
May 15, 05:04 PM	0xaa145cf5	SELL NO	0.999	$2,070	— (SELL)
May 14, 09:07 PM	0xca79115f	BUY YES	0.999	$4,925	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 09:07 PM	0x1bbe814c	BUY NO	0.999	$2,997	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 08:14 PM	0xa1e7272a	BUY NO	0.996	$1,490	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 08:12 PM	0xa1e7272a	BUY NO	0.995	$1,757	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 08:11 PM	0x1bbe814c	BUY NO	0.999	$7,545	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 08:11 PM	0x5d255f85	BUY NO	0.999	$1,567	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 08:11 PM	0xe22d1506	BUY NO	0.999	$1,872	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 08:02 PM	0x17b7ec0d	BUY YES	0.986	$1,145	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 08:01 PM	0xc85cda1a	BUY NO	0.999	$1,144	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 08:00 PM	0x3c0f7b3e	BUY NO	0.999	$10.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 06:58 PM	0x8b6dca40	BUY NO	0.999	$1,173	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 01:40 AM	0xb3e9f2bd	BUY YES	0.987	$1,193	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 01:31 AM	0xe22d1506	BUY NO	0.940	$1,778	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 02:24 PM	0x76bd4f28	BUY NO	0.999	$1,291	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 02:24 PM	0x546d6fe5	BUY NO	0.999	$1,248	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 02:24 PM	0xfd6bdfda	BUY NO	0.999	$1,182	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 01:23 PM	0x94e8b7f0	BUY NO	0.999	$1,050	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 01:23 PM	0xc39494e8	BUY NO	0.999	$10.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 01:23 PM	0x5c34d982	BUY YES	0.999	$10.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 06:40 PM	0xa93b28a6	SELL YES	0.999	$80.0K	— (SELL)

Markets active in

90 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
0x084aec77	—	8	$216.8K	+$216.8K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Crypto	8	$130.6K	+$50.4K
0xa93b28a6	—	1	$80.0K	$-80,020
0xad11c116	—	3	$74.9K	+$74.9K
0xf305528c	—	2	$71.6K	+$71.6K
0x59a37ea3	—	2	$20.7K	$-862
0x4382d7a5	—	1	$20.0K	+$20.0K
0x5f5818ce	—	2	$19.7K	$-290
0x0b96b013	—	2	$17.6K	+$17.6K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	Other	2	$17.5K	+$17.5K
0x5341e90b	—	1	$16.3K	$-16,332
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Other	1	$13.8K	+$13.8K
Will Mark Brnovich be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?	Politics	1	$12.4K	+$12.4K
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 30?	Other	2	$12.0K	+$12.0K
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Other	1	$10.9K	+$10.9K
0xc39494e8	—	1	$10.9K	+$10.9K
0x3c0f7b3e	—	1	$10.9K	+$10.9K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Finance	1	$10.7K	+$10.7K
0x1bbe814c	—	2	$10.5K	+$10.5K
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Other	2	$10.5K	+$10.5K
0x5c34d982	—	1	$10.0K	+$10.0K
0x5ab47d76	—	1	$9,964	+$9,964
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?	Tech	1	$9,143	+$9,143
0x6dfdcab0	—	2	$9,089	+$9,089
0x7545551f	—	2	$8,783	$-810
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Other	3	$8,443	$-1,726
Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	Other	1	$8,178	+$8,178
0xc56c1900	—	3	$7,495	+$7,495
0xdeb0a6ab	—	1	$7,441	+$7,441
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June?	Finance	1	$7,081	+$7,081

Showing top 30 by volume.