| Jun 12, 08:29 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.930 | $13.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 07:53 PM | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | BUY YES | 0.970 | $5,018 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 11:28 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $4,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 11:24 AM | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.600 | $1,475 | —— |
| Jun 12, 11:20 AM | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY YES | 0.753 | $3,100 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 11:03 AM | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.550 | $5,167 | —— |
| Jun 12, 11:02 AM | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.540 | $1,551 | —— |
| Jun 10, 12:31 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.920 | $1,879 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 06:50 PM | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.633 | $3,165 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 6, 06:49 PM | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.528 | $3,956 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 6, 06:42 PM | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.180 | $1,125 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 01:12 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.714 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 10:22 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $1,033 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 01:53 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.988 | $4,503 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 10:12 PM | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $3,725 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 10:10 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.975 | $7,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 12:54 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.975 | $34.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 12:41 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.973 | $7,203 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 12:28 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.330 | $13.3K | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 01:15 PM | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $12.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 12:49 PM | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $26.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 05:07 PM | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.580 | $9,658 | —— |
| May 7, 05:04 PM | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $1,071 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 01:07 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.107 | $3,704 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 6, 01:02 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.761 | $9,678 | — (SELL) |
| May 1, 08:55 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $18.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 10:05 AM | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.964 | $2,647 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 09:53 AM | Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $10.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 07:25 PM | Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $2,607 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 06:53 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.950 | $25.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 06:50 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $50.0K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 29, 06:49 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $50.0K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 29, 10:39 AM | Will Elizabeth Warren vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $2,258 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 10:37 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.998 | $2,253 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 27, 10:29 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $42.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 10:28 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.998 | $49.1K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 12:13 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.994 | $3,578 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 12:05 PM | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)? | BUY YES | 0.992 | $3,982 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 12:04 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.994 | $3,976 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 03:10 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | BUY YES | 0.668 | $1,952 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 03:09 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.600 | $2,290 | —— |
| Apr 17, 03:08 PM | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.900 | $1,805 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 03:00 PM | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY YES | 0.490 | $1,364 | —— |
| Apr 15, 03:07 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $3,217 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 11:42 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.974 | $7,372 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 11:17 PM | 0x4c5701bc | SELL NO | 0.034 | $7,065 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 09:15 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.782 | $5,220 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 09:11 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.772 | $6,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 09:10 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.783 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 09:08 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.977 | $16.2K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 09:07 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.787 | $16.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 09:07 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.978 | $16.8K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 6, 12:09 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.966 | $4,757 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 11:51 AM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.963 | $2,136 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 11:44 AM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.969 | $50.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 11:39 AM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.958 | $1,869 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 08:36 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.982 | $2,488 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 08:35 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.900 | $14.1K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 4, 12:51 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.965 | $4,023 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 08:33 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.971 | $1,173 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 08:29 PM | 0x93ab6cbb | BUY NO | 0.976 | $2,673 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 09:45 AM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.985 | $2,034 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 09:40 AM | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL YES | 0.640 | $2,930 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 09:37 AM | Iran leadership change by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $3,600 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 09:30 AM | 0x773abaa5 | SELL NO | 0.930 | $2,863 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 2, 10:56 AM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY NO | 0.930 | $2,860 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 06:48 PM | 0x60b6148d | BUY YES | 0.973 | $2,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 06:33 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.920 | $15.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 02:12 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.560 | $3,335 | —— |
| Apr 1, 02:05 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.460 | $4,600 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 11:11 AM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.993 | $1,033 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 03:55 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.890 | $8,163 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 03:52 PM | 0x21a83ad8 | BUY NO | 0.698 | $2,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 09:32 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.880 | $1,030 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 05:08 PM | 0x064265e9 | BUY NO | 0.997 | $1,061 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 01:37 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.880 | $15.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 01:35 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.870 | $2,275 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 11:32 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.700 | $1,849 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 01:36 PM | 0x61ce3773 | BUY NO | 0.994 | $4,226 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 01:29 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.697 | $25.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 12:44 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.768 | $3,299 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 12:17 PM | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY YES | 0.450 | $3,814 | —— |
| Mar 28, 04:20 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.966 | $1,569 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 04:15 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.860 | $11.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 04:10 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL NO | 0.971 | $97.1K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 02:56 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL NO | 0.976 | $3,097 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 27, 01:42 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $42.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 27, 01:09 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.960 | $16.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 27, 01:07 PM | Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? | SELL NO | 0.983 | $9,255 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 26, 02:08 PM | 0x03181e1a | BUY NO | 0.989 | $1,390 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 11:32 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL NO | 0.712 | $10.3K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 11:30 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL NO | 0.710 | $68.9K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 11:23 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.840 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 10:09 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.936 | $1,244 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |