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pako

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x71ed…d338 with our methodology badges per row.

0x71edffd0d70a1da823ff07a3c6fc81457294d338·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
25
lifetime
PnL per $
-33%
historical realized
Win rate
61.6%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$837.1K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 25 resolved trades · -33% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
45
Distinct markets
16
Volume (90d)
$958.2K
avg $21.3K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$582.1K / $376.1K
net direction

Recent trades

last 45 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 14, 02:39 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.930$23.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 02:34 PMWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?SELL NO0.900$33.8K— (SELL)
Jul 14, 01:05 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.930$110.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 12:42 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.910$6,938Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 12:38 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.900$53.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 12:35 PMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?SELL NO0.995$244.1K— (SELL)
Jul 14, 12:33 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.883$1,872Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 12:32 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.900$95.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:56 PMFed rate hike in 2026?SELL NO0.310$1,046— (SELL)
Jul 13, 04:54 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.591$11.6K— (SELL)
Jul 13, 04:52 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.590$6,724— (SELL)
Jul 13, 04:51 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.609$18.9K— (SELL)
Jul 13, 11:53 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.760$37.2K— (SELL)
Jul 8, 06:13 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.780$6,232Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 10:49 AMWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.169$1,138— (SELL)
Jun 26, 11:37 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.810$1,989Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 11:31 AMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.986$13.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 10:26 PMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.988$12.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 10:20 PMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.988$98.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 01:03 PMWill Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?BUY NO0.996$4,095Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 12:39 PM0x1b0a4870BUY NO0.930$2,038Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 11:08 AMWill MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?BUY NO0.940$1,546Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 12:33 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.550$3,602—
Jun 22, 12:23 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.740$8,321Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 08:29 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.930$13.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 07:53 PMWill SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?BUY YES0.970$5,018Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 11:28 AMWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY NO0.880$4,400Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 11:24 AMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY NO0.600$1,475—
Jun 12, 11:20 AMWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?BUY YES0.753$3,100Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 11:03 AMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY NO0.550$5,167—
Jun 12, 11:02 AMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY NO0.540$1,551—
Jun 10, 12:31 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.920$1,879Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 06:50 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.633$3,165— (SELL)
Jun 6, 06:49 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.528$3,956— (SELL)
Jun 6, 06:42 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.180$1,125— (SELL)
Jun 1, 01:12 PMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.714$3,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 10:22 AM0xa1d97efbBUY NO0.993$1,033Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 01:53 PM0xa1d97efbBUY NO0.988$4,503Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 10:12 PMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY NO0.610$3,725Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 10:10 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.975$7,400Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 12:54 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.975$34.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 12:41 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.973$7,203Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 12:28 PMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?SELL YES0.330$13.3K— (SELL)
May 8, 01:15 PMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY NO0.820$12.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 12:49 PMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY NO0.820$26.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

16 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance15$398.5K+$249.5K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Finance4$369.2K$-119,009
Fed rate hike in 2026?Finance7$52.7K+$50.6K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Finance3$49.0K+$49.0K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Other2$38.2K$-29,375
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Crypto2$16.3K$-10,322
0xa1d97efb—2$5,535+$5,535
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Tech1$5,018+$5,018
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?Other1$4,095+$4,095
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto1$3,956$-3,956
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Finance1$3,602+$3,602
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto1$3,165$-3,165
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Other1$3,100+$3,100
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto2$2,263$-2,263
0x1b0a4870—1$2,038+$2,038
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?Other1$1,546+$1,546