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Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x714a…ab2f with our methodology badges per row.

0x714a685b5454ea4d52979563bbafa77b8168ab2f·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
19
lifetime
PnL per $
-62%
historical realized
Win rate
22.9%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$154.3K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 19 resolved trades · -62% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
47
Distinct markets
16
Volume (90d)
$328.3K
avg $6,985 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$230.8K / $97.5K
net direction

Recent trades

last 47 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 13, 05:42 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL NO0.390$15.6K— (SELL)
Jul 13, 05:21 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL NO0.390$9,750— (SELL)
Jul 13, 05:21 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL NO0.400$10.0K— (SELL)
Jul 13, 03:13 AMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?BUY NO0.100$2,500Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 13, 03:11 AMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?BUY NO0.090$2,194Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 10, 07:42 AMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?BUY NO0.165$3,727Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 10, 02:21 AMWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?SELL YES0.772$3,696— (SELL)
Jul 10, 02:20 AMWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?SELL YES0.778$11.2K— (SELL)
Jul 7, 08:31 PMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY YES0.498$24.9K—
Jul 7, 08:02 PMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY YES0.480$24.0K—
Jul 2, 03:56 PMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?BUY NO0.162$2,971Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 2, 03:56 PMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?BUY NO0.144$4,824Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 30, 05:22 PMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY YES0.532$34.6K—
Jun 29, 03:45 PMWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?SELL NO0.900$2,377— (SELL)
Jun 25, 11:43 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.217$10.8KCheap band — no rep
Jun 25, 11:41 PM10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?SELL NO0.962$6,249— (SELL)
Jun 25, 11:41 PMWill the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.950$1,335— (SELL)
Jun 25, 11:30 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.210$10.5KCheap band — no rep
Jun 25, 11:28 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.004$1,116—
Jun 25, 11:26 PMWill the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?SELL NO0.994$10.8K— (SELL)
Jun 24, 03:53 PM10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?BUY NO0.961$1,436Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 03:44 PMWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?SELL NO0.900$1,609— (SELL)
Jun 24, 12:01 AMWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?SELL NO0.910$2,031— (SELL)
Jun 21, 11:44 PMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.966$4,867— (SELL)
Jun 21, 10:22 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.250$7,500Cheap band — no rep
Jun 21, 10:04 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.230$17.2KCheap band — no rep
Jun 21, 10:04 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.240$6,038Cheap band — no rep
Jun 21, 09:46 PMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.968$8,561— (SELL)
Jun 13, 09:33 AMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY YES0.403$11.8K—
Jun 12, 04:40 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?SELL NO0.215$2,150— (SELL)
Jun 12, 02:33 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?BUY NO0.420$1,155—
Jun 12, 12:58 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?BUY NO0.420$2,994—
Jun 12, 12:43 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?BUY NO0.390$1,949Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 12, 12:11 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?BUY NO0.224$2,237Cheap band — no rep
Jun 9, 07:52 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?SELL NO0.180$7,181— (SELL)
Jun 3, 08:22 PMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?BUY NO0.060$24.0KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 2, 11:34 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?BUY NO0.511$10.2K—
Jun 2, 05:51 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?BUY NO0.111$1,065Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 2, 05:42 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?BUY NO0.219$1,094Cheap band — no rep
Jun 2, 03:38 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?BUY NO0.519$1,556—
Jun 1, 07:18 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?BUY NO0.508$1,055—
Jun 1, 03:56 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?BUY NO0.240$3,118Cheap band — no rep
Jun 1, 06:57 AMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?BUY NO0.570$1,710—
Jun 1, 06:36 AMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?BUY NO0.379$5,682Killed band — neutral expectation
May 31, 03:31 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?BUY NO0.560$3,640—
May 29, 06:45 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?BUY NO0.115$1,953Killed band — neutral expectation
May 19, 08:31 PMWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?BUY YES0.029$1,279—

Markets active in

16 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Fed rate hike in 2026?Finance4$95.3K+$95.3K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance8$87.4K+$16.7K
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Finance1$24.0K+$24.0K
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?Tech5$18.1K+$18.1K
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Finance5$16.2K+$16.2K
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Finance2$14.9K$-14,942
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Other2$13.4K$-13,429
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Tech4$11.8K+$11.8K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?Other1$10.8K$-10,806
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Tech3$10.2K$-4,163
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Tech4$8,599+$4,300
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?Other2$7,685$-4,813
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Other3$6,016$-6,016
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Other1$1,335$-1,335
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Tech1$1,279+$1,279
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Finance1$1,116+$1,116