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Lior-Pa

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x6cd8…d98d with our methodology badges per row.

0x6cd84a3230d0b0837c8169f64b6ece55faafd98d·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
24
lifetime
PnL per $
+15%
historical realized
Win rate
71.8%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$154.2K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✓ passes

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. This wallet clears the bar — its BUYs in 0.20–0.30 trigger our high-conviction tier.

Trades (90d)
29
Distinct markets
16
Volume (90d)
$188.0K
avg $6,484 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$139.4K / $48.6K
net direction

Recent trades

last 29 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 14, 08:07 PMIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?BUY NO0.854$19.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 08:06 PMIsrael closes its airspace by July 15?SELL NO0.979$19.5K— (SELL)
Jul 13, 06:13 PMIsrael closes its airspace by July 15?BUY NO0.969$19.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 03:11 AMWill Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.740$14.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 02:09 PMWill Egypt reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.870$12.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 10:40 AMWill Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?BUY NO0.880$11.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 06:57 AMWill France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.920$10.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 03:22 AMWill USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.851$8,751Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:40 AMWill France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.896$7,878Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 08:45 AMWill France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.780$3,367Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 03:31 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY NO0.779$2,113Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 03:30 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL YES0.222$2,114— (SELL)
Jun 13, 03:26 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.232$2,210Conviction tier
Jun 13, 03:25 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL NO0.775$2,210— (SELL)
Jun 13, 02:14 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY NO0.780$2,224Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 02:13 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL YES0.225$2,224— (SELL)
Jun 13, 11:29 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY YES0.229$2,254Conviction tier
Jun 13, 11:29 AMWill Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.645$2,279— (SELL)
Jun 12, 05:46 PMWill Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.670$4,734Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 05:34 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL NO0.840$4,788— (SELL)
May 30, 08:03 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY NO0.780$4,447Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 08:02 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.950$4,477— (SELL)
May 27, 05:35 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.860$4,053Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 05:34 PM0xb4067f81SELL NO0.957$4,052— (SELL)
May 27, 04:24 AM0xb4067f81BUY NO0.965$4,085Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 04:22 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?SELL NO0.999$4,085— (SELL)
May 22, 02:52 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.806$3,295Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 10:33 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY NO0.793$2,841Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 10:31 AM0xffe381a8SELL NO0.987$2,841— (SELL)

Markets active in

16 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?Tech2$38.9K$-182
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Other9$24.6K+$1,913
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Tech1$19.5K+$19.5K
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$14.3K+$14.3K
Will Egypt reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$12.6K+$12.6K
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Other1$11.1K+$11.1K
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$10.3K+$10.3K
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$8,751+$8,751
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Other2$8,530$-424
0xb4067f81—2$8,137+$33
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$7,878+$7,878
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Other2$7,380$-790
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$7,013+$2,455
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$3,367+$3,367
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Tech1$2,841+$2,841
0xffe381a8—1$2,841$-2,841