tsekinming01

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x69aa…8847 with our methodology badges per row.

0x69aa9fa621403e3a121b29ad77d32ba9eb5e8847·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-1%

historical realized

Win rate

98.0%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$2.34M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 75 resolved trades · -1% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

141

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$3.81M

avg $27.0K / trade

BUY vs SELL

$3.59M / $212.8K

net direction

Recent trades

last 141 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 20, 08:46 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.971	$1,575	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 09:13 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.995	$46.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 05:29 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	BUY YES	0.995	$58.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 02:06 PM	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL YES	0.930	$1,734	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 11:15 AM	Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?	BUY YES	0.998	$2,041	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 06:45 AM	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.910	$1,045	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 02:50 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$34.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 06:32 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	SELL NO	0.629	$3,305	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 04:02 PM	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	SELL NO	0.801	$4,006	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 01:51 PM	Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	BUY NO	0.992	$6,566	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 12:10 PM	Iran leadership change by June 30?	BUY NO	0.961	$3,034	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 04:01 AM	Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY NO	0.975	$5,105	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 01:52 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	BUY NO	0.994	$16.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 11:31 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	SELL NO	0.941	$13.7K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 09:31 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,169	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 05:06 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$27.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 12:07 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$7,759	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 12:00 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.386	$1,818	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 1, 11:59 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.677	$1,789	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 04:03 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	BUY NO	0.999	$4,665	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 03:01 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$90.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 12:23 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.997	$50.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 10:51 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.995	$59.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 01:09 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.986	$25.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 10:47 AM	Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	BUY YES	0.990	$3,821	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 09:39 AM	Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	BUY YES	0.950	$2,894	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 05:42 AM	Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?	BUY NO	0.916	$1,617	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 07:43 PM	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	BUY YES	0.999	$106.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 07:43 PM	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	BUY YES	0.999	$33.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 02:24 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.840	$16.8K	— (SELL)
May 29, 01:37 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	BUY NO	0.998	$49.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:11 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,994	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:11 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	BUY NO	0.997	$7,650	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 03:06 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	BUY NO	0.995	$17.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 11:15 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.993	$110.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 02:13 AM	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY NO	0.995	$5,559	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:58 AM	Iran leadership change by May 31?	BUY NO	0.960	$5,125	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:56 AM	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	SELL NO	0.867	$5,663	— (SELL)
May 21, 12:16 AM	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	BUY NO	0.995	$2,086	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 12:14 AM	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	SELL NO	0.903	$2,071	— (SELL)
May 20, 02:28 PM	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	SELL NO	0.941	$1,011	— (SELL)
May 19, 01:30 AM	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	BUY NO	0.990	$37.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 01:08 AM	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	SELL NO	0.940	$2,407	— (SELL)
May 18, 09:16 PM	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	SELL NO	0.940	$1,203	— (SELL)
May 18, 09:14 PM	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	SELL NO	0.943	$1,114	— (SELL)
May 18, 03:24 AM	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	BUY NO	0.992	$13.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 02:42 AM	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,133	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 02:21 AM	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	BUY NO	0.997	$19.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 07:27 AM	Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	BUY NO	0.996	$1,096	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 04:57 AM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	BUY NO	0.990	$17.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 03:30 AM	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	BUY NO	0.994	$24.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 03:20 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.990	$17.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 08:18 AM	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$52.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 08:17 AM	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	SELL YES	0.999	$51.7K	— (SELL)
May 13, 02:26 AM	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY NO	0.990	$30.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 10:12 PM	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY NO	0.999	$276.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 02:40 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,216	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 09:41 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.430	$1,075	— (SELL)
May 8, 08:59 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.410	$2,380	— (SELL)
May 8, 08:55 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.440	$1,320	— (SELL)
May 8, 08:51 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.470	$1,281	— (SELL)
May 8, 02:23 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	SELL NO	0.966	$2,898	— (SELL)
May 8, 02:22 PM	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	BUY YES	0.999	$1,819	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 12:04 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	SELL NO	0.977	$2,905	— (SELL)
May 7, 09:59 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	SELL NO	0.978	$9,624	— (SELL)
May 6, 03:21 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.160	$1,088	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 6, 09:28 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.890	$20.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 09:02 PM	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	BUY YES	0.997	$3,549	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 03:38 PM	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	BUY NO	0.999	$4,935	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 03:31 PM	Will MrBeast's video get between 64 and 66 million views on day 3?	BUY YES	0.999	$4,493	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 03:30 PM	Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,802	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 11:03 AM	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	BUY NO	0.999	$20.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 12:35 PM	Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	BUY YES	0.994	$14.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 12:17 PM	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	BUY YES	0.995	$20.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 06:30 PM	Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,770	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 06:28 PM	Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,718	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 04:22 PM	Will Charles Leclerc win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,445	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 11:51 AM	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL NO	0.989	$2,943	— (SELL)
May 2, 02:36 AM	Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY NO	0.997	$49.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 02:01 AM	Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY NO	0.997	$25.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 02:00 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.970	$6,228	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 06:53 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.970	$53.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 06:48 AM	Iran leadership change by May 31?	BUY NO	0.870	$9,450	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 06:28 AM	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	BUY YES	0.985	$3,894	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 05:21 AM	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	BUY YES	0.979	$2,302	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 05:16 AM	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	BUY YES	0.977	$1,311	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 05:14 AM	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	BUY YES	0.976	$6,782	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 03:45 AM	Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY NO	0.980	$2,131	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 03:44 AM	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY NO	0.986	$2,933	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 03:36 AM	Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY NO	0.988	$2,469	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 03:35 AM	Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY NO	0.988	$17.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 09:53 PM	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	BUY YES	0.978	$3,516	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 09:47 PM	US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	BUY NO	0.997	$219.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 09:39 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$205.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 02:05 AM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	BUY NO	0.982	$10.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 01:51 AM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	BUY NO	0.982	$39.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 06:07 AM	Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1?	BUY NO	0.999	$25.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 06:01 AM	Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	BUY NO	0.999	$10.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 03:16 AM	0x9823d715	SELL YES	0.999	$65.2K	— (SELL)
Apr 17, 02:28 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.993	$89.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 01:25 PM	Iran leadership change by April 30?	BUY NO	0.960	$6,079	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 11:58 AM	Iran leadership change by April 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$5,247	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 08:29 AM	Iran leadership change by April 30?	BUY NO	0.940	$3,627	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 09:16 PM	0x9823d715	BUY YES	0.998	$65.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 04:08 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.991	$49.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 07:23 AM	Iran leadership change by April 30?	BUY NO	0.910	$3,721	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 07:21 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.976	$10.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 08:40 AM	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	BUY YES	0.997	$62.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 02:57 AM	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	BUY YES	0.998	$185.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 5, 06:22 AM	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	BUY YES	0.998	$342.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 03:12 AM	0x6aa39e48	BUY NO	0.999	$85.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 02:09 AM	0x6aa39e48	BUY NO	0.998	$1,747	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 02:03 AM	0x306d10d4	BUY NO	0.999	$61.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 07:58 PM	EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,868	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 07:50 PM	EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?	BUY YES	0.997	$13.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 07:09 PM	EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?	BUY YES	0.995	$9,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 07:08 PM	EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?	BUY YES	0.994	$2,485	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 03:59 PM	0x306d10d4	BUY NO	0.999	$107.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 03:52 PM	EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	SELL NO	0.966	$16.6K	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 07:24 AM	0xc470b43a	BUY YES	0.950	$1,245	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 07:20 AM	EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	BUY YES	0.998	$33.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 04:38 AM	EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	BUY NO	0.960	$1,437	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 01:17 AM	0x7cb525e8	BUY NO	0.999	$32.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 10:15 PM	0x7cb525e8	BUY NO	0.999	$13.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 09:47 PM	EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	BUY YES	0.988	$4,915	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 08:44 PM	EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	BUY YES	0.990	$7,126	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 08:40 PM	EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	BUY YES	0.989	$4,401	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 02:36 PM	Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?	BUY NO	0.999	$13.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 09:02 AM	0x306d10d4	BUY NO	0.980	$9,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 26, 09:55 AM	0x85310499	BUY NO	0.965	$3,122	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 26, 01:20 AM	0x61ce3773	BUY NO	0.992	$27.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 26, 01:20 AM	0x61ce3773	BUY NO	0.992	$26.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 10:37 PM	0x24fb7c2d	BUY YES	0.999	$6,195	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 10:36 PM	0x24fb7c2d	BUY YES	0.999	$21.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 10:16 PM	0x24fb7c2d	BUY YES	0.998	$78.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 09:27 PM	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	BUY YES	0.998	$56.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 04:58 PM	Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	BUY NO	0.976	$1,429	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 02:27 PM	Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	BUY NO	0.986	$4,664	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 09:29 AM	Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	BUY NO	0.994	$4,970	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 07:22 AM	Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	BUY NO	0.994	$9,940	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 02:11 AM	Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	BUY NO	0.997	$36.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

74 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Other	3	$590.3K	+$590.3K
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Sports	1	$276.7K	+$276.7K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	Other	3	$255.9K	+$255.9K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Other	4	$226.1K	+$226.1K
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Other	1	$219.3K	+$219.3K
0x306d10d4	—	3	$178.8K	+$178.8K
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Finance	2	$139.9K	+$139.9K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Finance	2	$139.0K	+$139.0K
0x9823d715	—	2	$130.4K	$-65
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Tech	1	$110.8K	+$110.8K
0x24fb7c2d	—	3	$106.2K	+$106.2K
0x6aa39e48	—	2	$87.6K	+$87.6K
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Tech	4	$77.4K	+$77.4K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Crypto	11	$76.2K	+$26.9K
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Other	3	$69.7K	+$50.4K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Other	3	$64.6K	+$37.2K
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Tech	1	$58.7K	+$58.7K
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Other	1	$56.7K	+$56.7K
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Tech	2	$55.3K	$-48,200
0x61ce3773	—	2	$54.4K	+$54.4K
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	Politics	1	$52.0K	+$52.0K
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Other	4	$50.4K	+$50.4K
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Sports	1	$49.9K	+$49.9K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Finance	1	$46.8K	+$46.8K
0x7cb525e8	—	2	$45.9K	+$45.9K
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Politics	2	$39.4K	+$39.4K
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Sports	3	$36.8K	+$30.9K
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Other	1	$36.2K	+$36.2K
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Sports	1	$25.7K	+$25.7K
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Other	3	$25.7K	+$25.7K

Showing top 30 by volume.