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wokerjoesleeper

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x63d4…a2f1 with our methodology badges per row.

0x63d43bbb87f85af03b8f2f9e2fad7b54334fa2f1·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
33
lifetime
PnL per $
-19%
historical realized
Win rate
78.1%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$293.8K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 33 resolved trades · -19% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
64
Distinct markets
27
Volume (90d)
$662.9K
avg $10.4K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$481.2K / $181.7K
net direction

Recent trades

last 64 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
May 27, 10:05 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.975$19.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 10:05 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.975$10.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 11:49 PMWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY NO0.971$1,358Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 08:37 PMWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY NO0.974$13.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 08:35 PMWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY NO0.975$4,961Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 08:34 PMWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY NO0.975$9,636Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 08:53 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY NO0.950$2,033Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 09:59 PMJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?BUY NO0.994$23.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 09:48 AMStarmer out by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.520$3,793—
May 9, 08:36 AMStarmer out by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.810$5,307Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 10:05 PMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.956$5,422Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 07:48 PMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.940$26.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 05:59 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY NO0.940$21.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 04:02 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY NO0.940$94.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 02:39 AMJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?BUY NO0.973$3,147Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 02:34 AMStarmer out by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.590$2,360—
Apr 30, 03:00 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY NO0.920$16.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 03:57 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.998$1,996— (SELL)
Apr 28, 01:45 AMStarmer out by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.620$2,760Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 01:45 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.998$2,994— (SELL)
Apr 27, 02:29 AMStarmer out by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.330$1,323Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 27, 02:28 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.998$1,996— (SELL)
Apr 26, 02:23 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY NO0.920$10.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 02:22 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?SELL NO0.996$9,960— (SELL)
Apr 19, 03:46 PM0x0233cfecBUY0.760$3,773Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 03:45 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.993$4,965— (SELL)
Apr 19, 03:36 PM0xb30f87adBUY0.580$1,604—
Apr 19, 10:14 AM0xb30f87adBUY0.590$1,748—
Apr 19, 10:13 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.993$5,958— (SELL)
Apr 18, 09:15 PM0xfefaf187BUY YES0.740$2,992Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 09:14 PM0x4b46ec50SELL0.999$3,966— (SELL)
Apr 18, 12:11 PM0x4b46ec50BUY0.750$2,978Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 12:11 PM0x14c06312BUY0.470$1,018—
Apr 18, 12:10 PM0x4c27acaaBUY0.600$1,778—
Apr 17, 11:35 AM0x06b9ca38BUY0.740$3,671Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 11:35 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.992$1,984— (SELL)
Apr 14, 09:33 PM0x74ab2fbaBUY0.720$5,136Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 07:33 AM0xc7b48ac0BUY0.840$8,360Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 12:40 PMWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?BUY YES0.660$1,980Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 10:39 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?BUY NO0.910$1,820Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 08:09 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.980$2,940Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 08:09 AM0xc470b43aSELL YES0.999$3,395— (SELL)
Apr 6, 08:17 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?BUY NO0.958$4,790Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 5, 08:39 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?BUY NO0.960$24.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 3, 08:16 AMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY NO0.350$1,050Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 1, 08:20 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.977$16.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 08:05 AMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY NO0.480$1,440—
Mar 31, 10:58 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY NO0.870$10.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 10:57 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.976$14.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 05:18 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.975$19.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 02:50 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?BUY NO0.940$47.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 02:50 PM0x61ce3773SELL NO0.998$49.9K— (SELL)
Mar 30, 07:21 PM0x61ce3773SELL NO0.998$29.9K— (SELL)
Mar 30, 07:12 PM0x306d10d4BUY NO0.952$10.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 06:30 PM0x61ce3773SELL NO0.998$9,980— (SELL)
Mar 29, 09:52 PM0x306d10d4BUY NO0.870$1,185Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 09:37 PM0x306d10d4BUY NO0.882$5,222Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 04:50 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.968$1,850Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 28, 05:50 PM0x61ce3773SELL NO0.994$27.8K— (SELL)
Mar 28, 04:18 PM0xd68a4a78BUY0.580$1,160—
Mar 28, 09:26 AM0x61ce3773SELL NO0.994$1,988— (SELL)
Mar 27, 10:55 PM0x40ee08bcBUY YES0.650$1,839Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 09:12 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?BUY NO0.920$3,651Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 09:11 AM0x61ce3773SELL NO0.993$24.8K— (SELL)

Markets active in

27 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Other6$154.8K+$154.8K
0x61ce3773—6$144.5K$-144,465
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Other5$89.5K+$69.6K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Finance11$75.3K+$35.5K
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Tech2$31.9K+$31.9K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Finance2$29.3K+$29.3K
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?Tech2$26.8K+$26.8K
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?Politics3$24.2K+$24.2K
0x306d10d4—3$16.6K+$16.6K
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Other3$10.4K+$10.4K
0xc7b48ac0—1$8,360+$8,360
0x4b46ec50—2$6,944$-989
0x74ab2fba—1$5,136+$5,136
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Other2$5,116+$5,116
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?Politics1$4,961+$4,961
0x0233cfec—1$3,773+$3,773
0x06b9ca38—1$3,671+$3,671
0xc470b43a—1$3,395$-3,395
0xb30f87ad—2$3,352+$3,352
0xfefaf187—1$2,992+$2,992
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Other2$2,490+$2,490
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Other1$1,980+$1,980
0x40ee08bc—1$1,839+$1,839
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?Other1$1,820+$1,820
0x4c27acaa—1$1,778+$1,778
0xd68a4a78—1$1,160+$1,160
0x14c06312—1$1,018+$1,018