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Mpire1

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x56ad…f13e with our methodology badges per row.

0x56ad6bd05999e0f33ea9c05a48ccb1364a46f13e·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
53
lifetime
PnL per $
-36%
historical realized
Win rate
52.4%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$563.8K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 53 resolved trades · -36% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
111
Distinct markets
39
Volume (90d)
$799.6K
avg $7,204 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$508.6K / $291.0K
net direction

Recent trades

last 111 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 20, 01:45 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.930$9,333Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 01:28 AMWill Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?BUY YES0.746$7,557Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 10:01 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.986$20.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 10:01 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.984$12.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 10:01 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.990$6,882Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:54 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.930$9,318Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:52 PMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.998$49.3K— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:51 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.950$5,714Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:47 PMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.998$5,782— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:42 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.880$2,838Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 01:15 AMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.940$51.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 02:08 AMUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?SELL YES0.450$1,350— (SELL)
Jul 6, 02:06 AMUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?SELL YES0.681$2,043— (SELL)
Jul 4, 05:32 AMWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?SELL NO0.910$3,634— (SELL)
Jul 3, 08:34 AMWill Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?BUY NO0.900$1,722Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 11:46 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.870$1,587Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 11:43 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.720$2,203Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 11:23 PMPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.870$4,350— (SELL)
Jul 1, 11:13 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.850$6,962Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 10:46 AMPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.860$4,300Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 10:19 AMUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.460$1,380
Jul 1, 01:44 AMWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?BUY NO0.981$18.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 01:43 AMWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?BUY NO0.978$20.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 03:24 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?SELL NO0.969$14.5K— (SELL)
Jun 29, 08:33 PMWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?SELL NO0.940$9,400— (SELL)
Jun 29, 01:15 PMWill Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?BUY YES0.870$4,366Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 11:40 AMWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?BUY NO0.957$19.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 10:53 AMWill Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June?BUY NO0.822$23.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:36 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY NO0.898$32.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 04:30 AM0x6114a8a3BUY NO0.740$2,220Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 04:28 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY NO0.880$3,520Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 04:27 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?BUY NO0.610$3,050Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 04:27 AM0x6114a8a3BUY NO0.739$16.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 04:25 AM0x9f8ef513SELL YES0.879$5,296— (SELL)
Jun 1, 04:24 AM0x1b1a75d6SELL YES0.830$15.0K— (SELL)
Jun 1, 04:23 AM0xc587bda9SELL NO0.830$4,997— (SELL)
May 31, 01:11 AM0xc587bda9BUY NO0.829$1,744Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 01:11 AM0x1b1a75d6BUY YES0.828$6,586Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 01:05 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?BUY NO0.606$1,212Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 01:04 AM0x6114a8a3BUY NO0.740$3,698Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 12:58 AM0xc587bda9BUY NO0.820$3,041Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 12:53 AM0x9f8ef513BUY YES0.889$5,359Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 12:49 AM0x1b1a75d6BUY YES0.815$8,206Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 12:14 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?BUY NO0.597$4,056
May 31, 12:10 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY NO0.820$6,560Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 12:10 AM0x6114a8a3BUY NO0.740$2,220Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 12:08 AM0x6114a8a3BUY NO0.737$5,157Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 12:05 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.976$48.8K— (SELL)
May 30, 01:26 PM0x6114a8a3BUY NO0.710$1,420Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 01:22 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?BUY NO0.576$4,320
May 30, 01:21 PM0x6114a8a3BUY NO0.706$5,651Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 01:21 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY NO0.804$9,645Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 01:20 PM0x366f8964BUY NO0.870$6,960Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 01:17 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.966$29.0K— (SELL)
May 30, 01:34 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?BUY NO0.505$1,262
May 30, 01:33 AM0x366f8964BUY NO0.840$4,200Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 01:33 AM0x6114a8a3BUY NO0.670$2,010Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 01:30 AM0x6114a8a3BUY NO0.663$6,559Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 01:30 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY NO0.785$7,383Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 01:29 AM0x366f8964BUY NO0.847$6,773Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 01:27 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.940$28.2K— (SELL)
May 29, 06:21 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.920$2,760Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 06:19 AM0x366f8964BUY NO0.800$1,600Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 08:06 AM0x366f8964BUY NO0.820$1,722Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 08:03 AMWill Gold have the best performance in 2026?SELL YES0.302$1,057— (SELL)
May 28, 12:57 AM0x366f8964BUY NO0.730$2,117Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 12:56 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY NO0.634$3,172Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 12:53 AMWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.660$6,600— (SELL)
May 28, 12:51 AM0x366f8964BUY NO0.720$2,232Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 12:50 AMWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.460$2,300— (SELL)
May 28, 12:44 AM0x366f8964BUY NO0.720$1,224Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 12:41 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY NO0.630$3,150Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 12:40 AM0x6114a8a3BUY NO0.550$2,510
May 27, 06:45 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.780$5,460Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 06:39 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.780$2,340Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 06:29 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.810$32.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:25 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.910$3,185Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:23 AMWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.677$3,246— (SELL)
May 25, 09:38 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.750$3,075Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 09:35 AMWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.628$3,141— (SELL)
May 24, 02:20 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.770$2,310Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 02:15 PMWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.660$2,638— (SELL)
May 24, 11:46 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.567$3,400
May 24, 11:44 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.666$3,329Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 11:41 AMWill Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.721$7,214— (SELL)
May 24, 07:02 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.630$4,410Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 06:59 AMWill Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.713$2,138— (SELL)
May 24, 06:56 AMWill Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.731$2,194— (SELL)
May 24, 02:03 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.399$1,197Killed band — neutral expectation
May 24, 01:58 AMWill Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.740$2,961— (SELL)
May 23, 11:29 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.353$4,240Killed band — neutral expectation
May 23, 11:27 PMWill Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.758$4,549— (SELL)
May 23, 11:09 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.493$5,858
May 23, 11:06 PMWill Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.846$5,923— (SELL)
May 23, 10:59 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.477$2,624
May 23, 10:55 PMWill Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.870$2,610— (SELL)
May 23, 10:44 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.500$4,750
May 23, 10:41 PMWill Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.841$2,541— (SELL)
May 23, 10:40 PMWill Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.771$2,313— (SELL)
May 23, 10:17 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.400$1,199Killed band — neutral expectation
May 23, 10:16 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.380$3,800Killed band — neutral expectation
May 23, 10:14 PM0x27ad7bacSELL NO0.883$5,303— (SELL)
May 23, 01:40 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.860$2,666Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 01:28 AM0x58078283SELL NO0.975$4,896— (SELL)
May 20, 09:31 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.900$3,888Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 01:23 PM0x58078283BUY NO0.890$2,274Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 12:21 PM0xde5ed16bBUY NO0.948$1,898Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 12:20 PM0x12587fe0SELL NO0.950$2,090— (SELL)
May 13, 08:41 AM0xcd215b83SELL YES0.999$5,646— (SELL)
May 12, 05:03 AM0x27ad7bacBUY NO0.900$1,450Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 01:42 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.830$1,660Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

39 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Other17$178.5K$-33,507
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other3$106.9K$-3,200
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Other7$65.8K+$65.8K
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Tech6$57.1K+$57.1K
0x6114a8a310$47.7K+$47.7K
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?Crypto2$38.0K+$38.0K
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?Crypto2$33.7K+$4,700
0x1b1a75d63$29.8K$-231
0x366f89648$26.8K+$26.8K
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June?Crypto1$23.7K+$23.7K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Other6$22.1K+$22.1K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Other5$13.9K+$13.9K
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto3$11.6K$-7,205
0x9f8ef5132$10.7K+$63
0xc587bda93$9,782$-212
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto2$9,741$-9,741
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?Crypto1$9,400$-9,400
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance1$9,333+$9,333
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics2$8,650$-50
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto2$8,550+$8,550
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto2$8,533$-8,533
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Other1$7,557+$7,557
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto2$7,510$-7,510
0x580782832$7,170$-2,622
0x27ad7bac2$6,753$-3,852
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto2$5,884$-5,884
0xcd215b831$5,646$-5,646
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Other1$4,366+$4,366
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?Crypto1$3,634$-3,634
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Other2$2,730+$30

Showing top 30 by volume.