pup1

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x54b5…4b31 with our methodology badges per row.

0x54b56146656e7eef9da02b3a030c18e06e924b31·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

266

lifetime

PnL per $

-13%

historical realized

Win rate

56.7%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$983.3K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 266 resolved trades · -13% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$799.5K

avg $3,998 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$516.2K / $283.3K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 20, 03:14 PM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.994	$16.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 04:31 PM	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?	BUY NO	0.983	$2,482	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 04:27 PM	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?	BUY NO	0.983	$1,968	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 04:20 PM	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina?	BUY NO	0.970	$2,672	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 04:17 PM	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?	BUY NO	0.981	$19.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 05:47 PM	Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	BUY NO	0.905	$1,196	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 09:48 PM	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.350	$3,049	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 14, 08:59 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.568	$1,378	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 03:44 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.219	$1,049	— (SELL)
Jul 12, 03:42 AM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.200	$2,617	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 12, 03:36 AM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.995	$5,089	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 03:32 AM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.994	$1,168	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 10:09 PM	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	BUY YES	0.290	$1,265	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 10, 08:53 PM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.622	$3,521	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 08:14 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.161	$1,566	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 10, 05:04 PM	Will England win on 2026-07-11?	BUY NO	0.485	$2,495	—
Jul 9, 08:10 PM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.020	$1,000	— (SELL)
Jul 9, 06:48 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.805	$16.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 11:34 PM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.840	$7,855	— (SELL)
Jul 7, 11:05 PM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.843	$16.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 08:00 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.824	$8,212	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 06:09 PM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.848	$2,256	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:44 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.949	$1,898	— (SELL)
Jul 7, 05:21 PM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.842	$1,301	— (SELL)
Jul 7, 04:24 PM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.839	$7,162	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 04:17 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.851	$1,843	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 04:16 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.840	$19.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 04:16 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.840	$30.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 04:16 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.838	$5,366	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 04:13 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.822	$13.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:15 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.185	$2,930	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 03:26 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.176	$3,198	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 03:21 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.181	$8,201	— (SELL)
Jul 7, 03:19 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.186	$1,599	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 03:19 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.188	$3,087	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 11:46 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.820	$1,237	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 11:42 PM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.854	$3,949	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 10:45 PM	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.013	$3,607	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 09:24 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	SELL NO	0.774	$2,353	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 09:16 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.730	$1,675	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 09:05 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.820	$3,655	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 09:01 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.176	$2,643	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 6, 08:58 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.834	$17.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:53 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.157	$10.4K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 6, 08:50 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.899	$2,679	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:39 PM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.854	$8,540	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 08:26 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.891	$1,326	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:20 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.889	$8,232	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 07:40 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.866	$2,312	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 07:21 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.865	$2,627	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 05:57 AM	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.013	$5,731	—
Jul 4, 03:27 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.826	$4,543	— (SELL)
Jul 4, 03:20 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.829	$2,272	— (SELL)
Jul 4, 01:22 AM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.356	$1,937	— (SELL)
Jul 4, 12:18 AM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.125	$3,851	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 4, 12:18 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.875	$2,892	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 11:20 PM	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	SELL YES	0.832	$4,162	— (SELL)
Jul 3, 11:19 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.811	$11.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 10:38 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.790	$2,920	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 10:03 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.788	$1,432	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 09:04 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.195	$1,528	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 3, 01:42 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.189	$5,416	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 3, 01:41 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.187	$1,466	— (SELL)
Jul 3, 01:41 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.191	$3,843	— (SELL)
Jul 1, 09:09 PM	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	BUY NO	0.780	$5,338	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 08:02 PM	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	SELL NO	0.490	$6,886	— (SELL)
Jul 1, 07:20 PM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.638	$1,404	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 05:25 AM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.675	$1,953	— (SELL)
Jun 29, 11:35 PM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.750	$1,064	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 09:32 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.936	$1,183	— (SELL)
Jun 29, 06:22 PM	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.944	$1,891	— (SELL)
Jun 29, 05:29 PM	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.947	$1,897	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 05:02 PM	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL NO	0.450	$2,250	— (SELL)
Jun 29, 05:02 PM	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL NO	0.450	$2,250	— (SELL)
Jun 29, 05:01 PM	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL NO	0.450	$2,944	— (SELL)
Jun 29, 05:00 PM	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY NO	0.450	$11.2K	—
Jun 28, 10:57 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL YES	0.420	$1,260	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 07:39 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.212	$12.7K	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 06:48 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.210	$1,794	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 06:23 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.210	$2,016	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 28, 06:23 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.208	$3,494	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 06:12 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.211	$1,189	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 06:09 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.212	$1,995	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 05:36 AM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.957	$1,243	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 05:28 AM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.949	$6,509	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 05:28 AM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.955	$1,232	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 05:03 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.222	$2,004	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 28, 04:31 AM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.246	$1,910	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 28, 04:31 AM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.239	$4,900	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 28, 04:08 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.194	$3,604	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 03:29 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.207	$1,095	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 28, 03:28 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.212	$4,785	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 28, 03:27 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.201	$1,027	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 03:19 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.194	$2,342	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 28, 03:18 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.204	$3,271	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 02:53 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.206	$1,400	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 02:52 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.219	$1,310	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 02:51 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.223	$2,027	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 28, 02:51 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.212	$2,495	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 02:50 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.203	$3,127	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 02:48 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.211	$2,537	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 28, 02:47 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.210	$1,162	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 28, 02:46 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.202	$4,276	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 02:46 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.203	$4,794	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 28, 02:44 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.211	$2,436	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 28, 02:42 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.205	$1,255	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 28, 02:35 AM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.940	$3,372	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 01:56 AM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.061	$1,498	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 28, 01:29 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.188	$1,156	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 01:11 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.182	$2,828	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 28, 01:07 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.188	$4,242	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 11:21 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.179	$5,057	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 11:15 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.179	$2,383	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 11:11 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.176	$2,391	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 10:53 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.180	$2,991	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 10:50 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.176	$8,166	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 10:49 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.180	$1,988	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 10:38 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.179	$1,755	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 10:36 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.179	$7,213	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 10:36 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.181	$6,263	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 10:32 PM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.231	$5,896	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 27, 10:31 PM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.767	$7,695	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 10:18 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.181	$1,196	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 10:15 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.181	$1,102	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:59 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.188	$2,163	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 09:57 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.184	$2,672	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 09:57 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.188	$4,471	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:51 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.188	$6,556	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 09:50 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.187	$1,445	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:48 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.909	$4,885	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:47 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.911	$2,265	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:45 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.909	$12.3K	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:44 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.914	$1,190	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:44 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.913	$3,259	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:42 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.910	$5,869	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:41 PM	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	SELL YES	0.580	$2,900	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:40 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.912	$5,690	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:39 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.911	$5,193	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:38 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.910	$3,167	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:37 PM	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	SELL YES	0.580	$4,350	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:36 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.911	$5,477	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:36 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.910	$2,172	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:36 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.908	$1,854	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:34 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.909	$4,650	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:33 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.910	$2,259	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:32 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.913	$1,781	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:31 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.915	$4,839	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:31 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.908	$4,896	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:30 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.913	$2,952	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:29 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.910	$6,359	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:29 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.908	$4,042	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:26 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.911	$11.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:24 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.913	$9,568	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:23 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.913	$2,033	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:22 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.915	$2,500	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:20 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.916	$4,257	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:19 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.912	$2,190	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:16 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.913	$2,223	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:15 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.910	$5,077	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:12 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.909	$11.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:09 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.915	$3,404	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 09:06 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.188	$1,168	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:03 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.188	$1,070	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 09:02 PM	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	SELL YES	0.580	$1,450	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:02 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.187	$1,149	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 09:00 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.190	$2,144	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 09:00 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.186	$1,706	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 08:59 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.189	$8,087	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 08:56 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.185	$2,878	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 08:55 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.187	$3,827	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 08:54 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.191	$1,036	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 08:52 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.187	$1,032	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 08:52 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.190	$1,988	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 08:51 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.187	$3,138	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 08:50 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.187	$1,064	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 08:50 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.191	$1,217	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 08:48 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.188	$1,777	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 08:48 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.188	$2,164	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 08:47 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.186	$1,120	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 08:45 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.191	$1,052	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 08:43 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.185	$1,114	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 08:42 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.191	$1,852	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 08:41 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.186	$6,997	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 08:38 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.183	$4,892	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 08:34 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.187	$1,712	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 08:33 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.188	$2,177	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 08:33 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.185	$6,826	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 08:31 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.188	$3,941	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 08:29 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.185	$1,854	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 08:29 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.187	$2,378	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 08:27 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.186	$1,436	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 08:26 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.812	$8,489	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 08:25 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.815	$5,737	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 08:24 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.187	$1,888	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 08:23 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.187	$1,700	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 08:22 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.190	$1,484	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 08:21 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.187	$1,146	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 08:21 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.189	$1,413	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 08:20 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.186	$1,021	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 27, 08:20 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.189	$1,591	— (SELL)

Markets active in

21 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	103	$368.2K	+$95.7K
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	36	$154.8K	+$3,815
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Tech	15	$77.5K	+$60.1K
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	7	$47.8K	+$4,516
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	9	$30.3K	+$22.5K
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?	Tech	3	$23.6K	+$23.6K
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Other	4	$18.6K	+$3,713
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	Politics	1	$16.1K	+$16.1K
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	Other	2	$12.2K	$-1,548
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	2	$9,338	+$2,125
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	3	$8,700	$-8,700
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	3	$7,258	+$5,258
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Other	3	$5,266	+$559
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Other	1	$4,162	$-4,162
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	2	$3,788	+$6
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	1	$3,049	+$3,049
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina?	Tech	1	$2,672	+$2,672
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	Other	1	$2,495	+$2,495
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Other	1	$1,265	+$1,265
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Tech	1	$1,260	$-1,260
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	Other	1	$1,196	+$1,196