| Jul 15, 04:37 AM | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | SELL NO | 0.864 | $11.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 13, 05:01 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.743 | $1,235 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 28, 09:21 AM | Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.606 | $1,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 28, 08:42 AM | Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.621 | $1,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 27, 01:59 PM | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.847 | $11.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 03:24 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.440 | $1,500 | —— |
| Jun 12, 09:55 AM | Starmer out by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.585 | $2,000 | —— |
| Jun 12, 05:17 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.245 | $1,066 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 08:26 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.677 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 07:47 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.346 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 06:27 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.867 | $10,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 06:25 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.389 | $1,185 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:46 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.596 | $2,000 | —— |
| Jun 10, 09:09 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.714 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 08:49 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.657 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 02:22 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.315 | $1,124 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 10:44 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | SELL YES | 0.244 | $1,379 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 10:20 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.961 | $10.8K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 08:23 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL NO | 0.574 | $3,609 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 08:09 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY NO | 0.476 | $2,000 | —— |
| Jun 4, 09:40 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.471 | $3,500 | —— |
| Jun 4, 05:21 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.400 | $1,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 4, 04:56 AM | 0x35c73eb4 | SELL NO | 0.840 | $4,149 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 04:37 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.826 | $2,907 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 05:43 PM | 0x42973552 | SELL NO | 0.405 | $2,053 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 05:31 AM | 0x42973552 | BUY NO | 0.789 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 05:28 AM | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.570 | $2,700 | —— |
| Jun 1, 03:47 AM | 0x8b369e10 | SELL NO | 0.998 | $5,312 | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 06:27 PM | 0x6e9f90a6 | SELL YES | 0.490 | $1,691 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 08:06 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.732 | $3,841 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 07:17 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL NO | 0.626 | $3,410 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 07:17 PM | 0x8b369e10 | BUY NO | 0.620 | $3,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 07:11 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL NO | 0.630 | $2,481 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 07:06 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL NO | 0.650 | $1,925 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 09:47 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $2,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:26 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY NO | 0.576 | $6,000 | —— |
| May 28, 05:21 AM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.822 | $9,250 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 05:01 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.920 | $4,718 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 04:50 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $4,250 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 08:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $3,130 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 07:55 PM | 0x6fa13f31 | SELL NO | 0.189 | $2,329 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 04:47 AM | 0x35c73eb4 | BUY NO | 0.405 | $2,000 | —— |
| May 24, 11:05 AM | 0x6fa13f31 | BUY NO | 0.163 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 11:03 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.523 | $3,836 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 11:01 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.614 | $9,086 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.449 | $2,000 | —— |
| May 23, 05:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.662 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 01:29 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL NO | 0.262 | $1,506 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:27 AM | 0xdb22a774 | SELL YES | 0.990 | $2,379 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 07:01 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.777 | $17.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 09:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $10,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 07:12 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL NO | 0.579 | $4,901 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 07:11 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL NO | 0.605 | $4,026 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 07:50 AM | 0xb7dd41c1 | BUY YES | 0.474 | $1,500 | —— |
| May 19, 05:18 PM | 0x2bef40a1 | SELL YES | 0.180 | $1,545 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 07:41 PM | 0x2bef40a1 | BUY YES | 0.233 | $2,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 18, 07:33 PM | 0xb7dd41c1 | SELL YES | 0.360 | $1,895 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 11:03 PM | 0xb7dd41c1 | BUY YES | 0.380 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 15, 10:59 PM | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.303 | $2,401 | — (SELL) |
| May 11, 05:19 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY NO | 0.589 | $4,000 | —— |
| May 10, 01:32 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY NO | 0.480 | $4,000 | —— |
| May 10, 01:09 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.230 | $1,576 | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 11:15 PM | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.378 | $3,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 9, 09:58 PM | 0x6e9f90a6 | BUY YES | 0.580 | $2,000 | —— |
| May 8, 10:55 PM | 0x2135ffcb | SELL NO | 0.989 | $7,381 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 02:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.660 | $6,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |