| Jun 13, 03:24 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.440 | $1,500 | —— |
| Jun 12, 09:55 AM | Starmer out by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.585 | $2,000 | —— |
| Jun 12, 05:17 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.245 | $1,066 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 08:26 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.677 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 07:47 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.346 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 06:27 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.867 | $10,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 06:25 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.389 | $1,185 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:46 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.596 | $2,000 | —— |
| Jun 10, 09:09 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.714 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 08:49 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.657 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 02:22 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.315 | $1,124 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 10:44 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | SELL YES | 0.244 | $1,379 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 10:20 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.961 | $10.8K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 08:23 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL NO | 0.574 | $3,609 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 08:09 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY NO | 0.476 | $2,000 | —— |
| Jun 4, 09:40 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.471 | $3,500 | —— |
| Jun 4, 05:21 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.400 | $1,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 4, 04:56 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.840 | $4,149 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 04:37 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.826 | $2,907 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 05:43 PM | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | SELL NO | 0.405 | $2,053 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 05:31 AM | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.789 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 05:28 AM | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.570 | $2,700 | —— |
| Jun 1, 03:47 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $5,312 | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 06:27 PM | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL YES | 0.490 | $1,691 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 08:06 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.732 | $3,841 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 07:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.626 | $3,410 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 07:17 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.620 | $3,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 07:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.630 | $2,481 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 07:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.650 | $1,925 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 09:47 AM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $2,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:26 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.576 | $6,000 | —— |
| May 28, 05:21 AM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.822 | $9,250 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 05:01 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.920 | $4,718 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 04:50 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $4,250 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 08:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $3,130 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 07:55 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.189 | $2,329 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 04:47 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.405 | $2,000 | —— |
| May 24, 11:05 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.163 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 11:03 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.523 | $3,836 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 11:01 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.614 | $9,086 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.449 | $2,000 | —— |
| May 23, 05:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.662 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 01:29 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL NO | 0.262 | $1,506 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:27 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | SELL YES | 0.990 | $2,379 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 07:01 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.777 | $17.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 09:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $10,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 07:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.579 | $4,901 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 07:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.605 | $4,026 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 07:50 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.474 | $1,500 | —— |
| May 19, 05:18 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.180 | $1,545 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 07:41 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.233 | $2,000 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 18, 07:33 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.360 | $1,895 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 11:03 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.380 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 15, 10:59 PM | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.303 | $2,401 | — (SELL) |
| May 11, 05:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.589 | $4,000 | —— |
| May 10, 01:32 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.480 | $4,000 | —— |
| May 10, 01:09 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.230 | $1,576 | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 11:15 PM | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.378 | $3,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 9, 09:58 PM | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY YES | 0.580 | $2,000 | —— |
| May 8, 10:55 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | SELL NO | 0.989 | $7,381 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 02:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.660 | $6,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 12:48 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.488 | $1,162 | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 04:23 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.633 | $1,907 | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 07:00 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 04:03 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $12.1K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 22, 04:02 AM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.981 | $6,436 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 06:52 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.839 | $5,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 20, 05:07 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.655 | $1,723 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 20, 03:57 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $4,387 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 19, 09:28 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.628 | $1,097 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 19, 05:28 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $10.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 04:51 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.380 | $2,010 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 10:43 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.632 | $5,838 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 10:40 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.450 | $2,380 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 03:34 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.650 | $6,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 06:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.529 | $5,000 | —— |
| Apr 17, 02:38 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.771 | $3,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 02:28 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.729 | $5,578 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 16, 09:46 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.857 | $6,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 16, 03:22 PM | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.139 | $1,087 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 16, 02:05 PM | 0x9dd27666 | SELL NO | 0.910 | $1,999 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 16, 04:49 AM | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.282 | $2,500 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Apr 16, 03:31 AM | 0x894a2611 | SELL NO | 0.990 | $16.7K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 15, 06:06 PM | 0x894a2611 | BUY NO | 0.622 | $3,579 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 04:26 PM | 0x894a2611 | BUY NO | 0.419 | $1,500 | —— |
| Apr 15, 04:24 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.440 | $1,500 | —— |
| Apr 15, 02:48 PM | 0x894a2611 | BUY NO | 0.400 | $3,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 15, 02:16 PM | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.241 | $1,502 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 15, 02:05 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.630 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 02:04 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | SELL NO | 0.553 | $4,985 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 15, 01:55 PM | 0x894a2611 | SELL NO | 0.564 | $6,172 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 15, 10:07 AM | 0x894a2611 | BUY NO | 0.949 | $10.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 10:05 AM | 0x4f8bddad | SELL NO | 0.991 | $9,038 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 02:56 PM | 0x9dd27666 | BUY NO | 0.546 | $1,200 | —— |
| Apr 12, 07:53 PM | 0x4f8bddad | BUY NO | 0.750 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 04:18 PM | 0x4f8bddad | BUY NO | 0.805 | $4,120 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 05:21 AM | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.550 | $3,420 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 10, 07:35 AM | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.609 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 09:23 PM | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.613 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 07:30 AM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | BUY NO | 0.423 | $3,000 | —— |
| Apr 7, 09:08 PM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY YES | 0.477 | $1,000 | —— |
| Apr 7, 08:58 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | SELL YES | 0.405 | $3,372 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 5, 05:03 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.604 | $10.0K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 2, 05:07 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.540 | $8,983 | —— |
| Apr 1, 08:46 PM | 0x93ab6cbb | BUY YES | 0.147 | $1,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 31, 03:28 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | BUY YES | 0.480 | $3,000 | —— |
| Mar 31, 03:14 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.316 | $1,582 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 09:05 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.360 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 30, 11:59 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.690 | $1,408 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 30, 11:58 AM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | SELL NO | 0.594 | $6,219 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 06:58 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | BUY NO | 0.573 | $6,000 | —— |
| Mar 28, 07:53 AM | 0x773abaa5 | SELL YES | 0.211 | $1,281 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 05:48 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.420 | $1,260 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 26, 08:19 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.410 | $1,230 | —— |
| Mar 26, 05:37 AM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY YES | 0.330 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 23, 08:02 PM | 0x5c2e6aef | SELL YES | 0.322 | $1,199 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 08:01 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.457 | $1,993 | — (SELL) |