| Jul 18, 04:30 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL YES | 0.270 | $2,700 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 17, 11:49 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.280 | $2,258 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jul 17, 11:47 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.280 | $4,200 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jul 17, 10:48 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.280 | $1,400 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jul 17, 01:38 AM | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.291 | $4,363 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 16, 09:54 PM | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.330 | $1,650 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 16, 09:52 PM | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.327 | $3,275 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 7, 12:45 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.405 | $1,654 | —— |
| Jul 7, 12:26 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.417 | $2,005 | —— |
| Jun 13, 12:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.226 | $7,154 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 11:44 AM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL NO | 0.990 | $5,515 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 11:42 AM | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $2,347 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 11:42 AM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL NO | 0.991 | $3,352 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 11:23 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.540 | $2,000 | —— |
| Jun 13, 11:19 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.190 | $2,176 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 11:13 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.530 | $1,060 | —— |
| Jun 13, 11:11 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.178 | $4,977 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 11:11 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.174 | $4,382 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 11:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.530 | $2,000 | —— |
| Jun 13, 11:04 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.410 | $2,349 | —— |
| Jun 13, 05:51 AM | 0x6fa13f31 | BUY NO | 0.390 | $1,017 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 04:22 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.159 | $4,264 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 07:52 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | BUY YES | 0.217 | $1,086 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 12, 07:52 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.167 | $1,861 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 07:44 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.450 | $1,350 | —— |
| Jun 12, 07:41 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.470 | $1,880 | —— |
| Jun 12, 07:15 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.113 | $3,390 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 07:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.180 | $8,268 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 07:12 PM | 0x876047c0 | SELL YES | 0.098 | $2,058 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 07:12 PM | 0x876047c0 | SELL YES | 0.124 | $2,948 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 07:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.193 | $3,366 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 07:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.188 | $5,468 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 07:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.204 | $3,562 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 12, 07:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.204 | $2,038 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 12, 07:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.204 | $2,038 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 12, 07:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.204 | $2,038 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 12, 07:06 PM | 0x876047c0 | BUY YES | 0.161 | $1,082 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 05:49 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.158 | $1,247 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 04:53 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY YES | 0.510 | $1,131 | —— |
| Jun 12, 04:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.165 | $2,469 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 04:23 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | BUY NO | 0.274 | $1,235 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 12, 04:09 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.360 | $1,080 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 04:04 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | BUY NO | 0.390 | $1,950 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 03:40 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | SELL NO | 0.430 | $2,150 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 03:35 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.371 | $1,078 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 03:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $2,308 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 03:31 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | BUY NO | 0.150 | $1,017 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 03:28 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | BUY NO | 0.130 | $1,025 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 03:28 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | BUY NO | 0.307 | $2,829 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 03:20 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.440 | $1,413 | —— |
| Jun 12, 03:16 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.380 | $1,520 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 03:07 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.360 | $1,171 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 03:07 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.359 | $1,437 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 02:40 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | BUY NO | 0.220 | $1,100 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 12, 01:47 PM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.049 | $1,005 | —— |
| Jun 12, 01:42 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.098 | $1,405 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 01:42 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.113 | $2,263 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 01:41 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.146 | $3,421 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 12:58 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | BUY NO | 0.249 | $1,073 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 12, 02:02 AM | 0x876047c0 | BUY YES | 0.196 | $1,037 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 01:22 AM | 0x16608c4f | BUY YES | 0.380 | $1,744 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 09:44 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.280 | $2,800 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 11, 09:37 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.290 | $1,132 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 11, 08:47 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.330 | $1,650 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 08:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.440 | $1,012 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 07:48 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.470 | $2,350 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 07:47 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.470 | $4,700 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 07:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.195 | $4,519 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:33 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.189 | $1,217 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.460 | $3,874 | —— |
| Jun 11, 07:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.460 | $1,380 | —— |
| Jun 11, 06:17 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.330 | $1,650 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:47 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.439 | $2,194 | —— |
| Jun 11, 05:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.380 | $1,886 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:30 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.290 | $1,740 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 11, 05:24 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | BUY NO | 0.330 | $2,310 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:21 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | BUY NO | 0.320 | $2,262 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:18 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | BUY YES | 0.840 | $3,338 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 04:02 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.290 | $1,450 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 2, 12:00 AM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.070 | $1,400 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 10:10 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.280 | $1,861 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 1, 09:43 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.270 | $1,677 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 1, 09:42 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.270 | $1,620 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 1, 09:41 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,176 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 05:35 PM | 0x366f8964 | BUY YES | 0.080 | $1,600 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 05:32 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $1,720 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 04:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $3,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 04:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $1,750 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 04:53 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.240 | $2,034 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 1, 12:17 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.164 | $1,640 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 19, 03:15 AM | 0xaa145cf5 | BUY NO | 0.985 | $4,923 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 10:16 PM | 0xc6ddb19f | BUY YES | 0.320 | $1,600 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 16, 10:15 PM | 0xc6ddb19f | BUY YES | 0.280 | $1,400 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 16, 09:18 PM | 0xc6ddb19f | SELL YES | 0.504 | $1,008 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 05:12 PM | 0x7f4378c2 | SELL NO | 0.999 | $2,897 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 05:02 PM | 0xaa145cf5 | SELL NO | 0.999 | $9,990 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 05:00 PM | 0x5341e90b | SELL NO | 0.950 | $14.2K | — (SELL) |
| May 14, 12:04 PM | 0xe0b6f4d4 | BUY YES | 0.320 | $1,600 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 14, 09:24 AM | 0x95e0a414 | SELL NO | 0.920 | $1,015 | — (SELL) |
| May 11, 04:54 PM | 0x6fa13f31 | BUY NO | 0.380 | $1,140 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 11, 04:24 PM | 0x6fa13f31 | BUY NO | 0.380 | $3,420 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 11, 04:24 PM | 0x6fa13f31 | BUY NO | 0.380 | $1,898 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 11, 09:45 AM | 0x6fa13f31 | BUY NO | 0.350 | $1,050 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 11, 08:09 AM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.390 | $1,170 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 10, 08:13 PM | 0x1db02ba5 | SELL YES | 0.091 | $1,728 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 08:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.280 | $2,800 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 10, 08:09 PM | 0x1db02ba5 | BUY YES | 0.117 | $1,061 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 10, 08:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.280 | $2,800 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 9, 05:09 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.290 | $1,450 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 07:00 PM | 0xa93b28a6 | BUY YES | 0.357 | $1,652 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 8, 06:58 PM | 0xa93b28a6 | SELL YES | 0.268 | $4,402 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 06:25 PM | 0xa93b28a6 | BUY YES | 0.408 | $4,078 | —— |
| May 8, 06:25 PM | 0xffe381a8 | SELL NO | 0.975 | $8,651 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 06:24 PM | 0xa93b28a6 | BUY YES | 0.392 | $1,317 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 8, 06:20 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $1,488 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 8, 06:19 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.298 | $3,737 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 8, 06:13 PM | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | SELL YES | 0.996 | $7,095 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 06:06 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.380 | $1,035 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 8, 06:06 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.334 | $1,459 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 8, 06:05 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.299 | $1,290 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 8, 06:05 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.275 | $1,920 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| May 8, 02:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.340 | $1,190 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 10:00 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.340 | $3,400 | — (SELL) |