| Jul 20, 06:15 PM | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | SELL YES | 0.809 | $2,694 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 20, 06:15 PM | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | SELL YES | 0.696 | $3,589 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 20, 05:15 PM | Will John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $2,054 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 20, 05:14 PM | Will John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $1,737 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 20, 11:31 AM | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | BUY YES | 0.832 | $3,914 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 20, 11:30 AM | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY YES | 0.764 | $1,657 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 20, 11:30 AM | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY YES | 0.694 | $1,725 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 10:55 PM | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY NO | 0.119 | $3,051 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 19, 10:54 PM | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY NO | 0.111 | $2,598 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 19, 10:43 PM | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY YES | 0.943 | $15.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 18, 07:12 AM | Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $1,158 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 15, 03:28 PM | Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.725 | $1,386 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 13, 05:09 PM | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL YES | 0.183 | $1,280 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 13, 02:17 PM | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31? | BUY YES | 0.838 | $5,243 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 6, 09:24 PM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL NO | 0.780 | $1,040 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 6, 11:57 AM | Will MicroStrategy announce selling any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.957 | $1,253 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 09:00 AM | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.569 | $5,789 | —— |
| Jun 30, 10:08 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.694 | $2,083 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 27, 09:46 PM | Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.956 | $1,527 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 27, 09:46 PM | Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? | BUY YES | 0.927 | $3,804 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 27, 09:37 PM | Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.897 | $2,991 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 24, 10:22 PM | Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? | SELL NO | 0.730 | $9,133 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 24, 10:19 PM | Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? | SELL NO | 0.740 | $4,959 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 24, 04:17 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.927 | $1,280 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 12:27 PM | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 16-22? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $5,444 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 22, 12:00 PM | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 16-22? | BUY NO | 0.982 | $5,349 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 10:09 AM | Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.536 | $1,205 | —— |
| Jun 21, 09:15 PM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.840 | $1,001 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 08:53 PM | Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? | BUY YES | 0.770 | $11.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 01:59 PM | Starmer out by June 22, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.645 | $1,014 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 09:02 PM | Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $1,500 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 20, 08:59 PM | Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? | SELL YES | 0.290 | $5,800 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 20, 08:56 PM | Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $1,497 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 20, 08:54 PM | Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $6,000 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 20, 08:54 PM | Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $6,000 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 13, 11:00 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $1,891 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 07:54 PM | Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? | BUY YES | 0.982 | $1,234 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 07:46 PM | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | BUY YES | 0.836 | $2,942 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 02:28 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $2,037 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 09:05 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.700 | $1,395 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 11:18 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $1,019 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:29 PM | 0x6fa13f31 | BUY YES | 0.334 | $2,603 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 10, 09:13 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.933 | $7,449 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 09:08 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.947 | $4,734 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 09:08 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.945 | $10.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 10:35 AM | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $1,166 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 10:35 AM | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.983 | $1,788 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 10:29 AM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | BUY YES | 0.620 | $2,098 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 05:01 PM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.985 | $3,285 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 05:00 PM | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.985 | $8,109 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 09:14 PM | Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? | BUY YES | 0.378 | $1,013 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 8, 05:59 PM | 0xc4c3dbcc | BUY NO | 0.240 | $1,635 | 🟢Conviction tier |
| Jun 7, 08:04 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL YES | 0.720 | $1,469 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 08:03 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL YES | 0.671 | $2,227 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 08:03 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL YES | 0.693 | $2,019 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 08:03 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL YES | 0.695 | $2,713 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 08:00 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.576 | $2,882 | —— |
| Jun 7, 07:59 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.555 | $3,149 | —— |
| Jun 7, 07:59 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY YES | 0.490 | $1,885 | —— |
| Jun 7, 07:59 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL NO | 0.495 | $5,794 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 07:41 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL NO | 0.370 | $1,253 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 07:37 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.644 | $3,426 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 07:29 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | SELL NO | 0.406 | $1,554 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 02:16 PM | 0x258031a5 | SELL YES | 0.597 | $3,027 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 02:04 PM | 0x258031a5 | BUY YES | 0.670 | $2,010 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 02:04 PM | 0x258031a5 | BUY YES | 0.649 | $1,344 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |