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SebastianAde1996
Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x4b40…2f6a with our methodology badges per row.
Resolved trades
3
lifetime
PnL per $
+10%
historical realized
Win rate
88.1%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$66.9K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails
The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 3 resolved trades · 10% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.
Trades (90d)
14
Distinct markets
12
Volume (90d)
$99.7K
avg $7,121 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$99.7K / $0
net direction
Recent trades
last 14 · 90d window| When | Market | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 05:38 PM | Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | BUY YES | 0.155 | $3,000 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 9, 05:31 PM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.161 | $5,000 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 9, 04:19 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.802 | $58.9K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 03:50 PM | Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.320 | $4,299 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jul 1, 02:48 PM | Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.069 | $1,100 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 04:48 AM | 0x8016f42b | BUY YES | 0.539 | $1,698 | — |
| May 24, 04:47 AM | 0x8016f42b | BUY YES | 0.530 | $1,040 | — |
| May 23, 05:06 PM | 0x08529def | BUY YES | 0.761 | $5,000 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:06 AM | 0x66585da0 | BUY YES | 0.670 | $5,360 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:01 AM | 0x4ea0ebb5 | BUY YES | 0.310 | $2,790 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 07:55 AM | 0xe892de9d | BUY YES | 0.440 | $1,624 | — |
| May 12, 04:03 PM | 0x2c4cb0ca | BUY NO | 0.540 | $4,867 | — |
| May 12, 03:56 PM | 0x2c4cb0ca | BUY NO | 0.540 | $2,001 | — |
| May 9, 03:19 PM | 0xea37927a | BUY YES | 0.710 | $2,972 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
Markets active in
12 markets · sorted by volume| Market | Category | Trades | Volume | Net BUY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Other | 1 | $58.9K | +$58.9K |
| 0x2c4cb0ca | — | 2 | $6,869 | +$6,869 |
| 0x66585da0 | — | 1 | $5,360 | +$5,360 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Other | 1 | $5,000 | +$5,000 |
| 0x08529def | — | 1 | $5,000 | +$5,000 |
| Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Other | 1 | $4,299 | +$4,299 |
| Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | Other | 1 | $3,000 | +$3,000 |
| 0xea37927a | — | 1 | $2,972 | +$2,972 |
| 0x4ea0ebb5 | — | 1 | $2,790 | +$2,790 |
| 0x8016f42b | — | 2 | $2,738 | +$2,738 |
| 0xe892de9d | — | 1 | $1,624 | +$1,624 |
| Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Other | 1 | $1,100 | +$1,100 |