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refzer

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x4b2f…1627 with our methodology badges per row.

0x4b2fe2f4a4e352534d7c02f3ed2f772bb8a11627·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
34
lifetime
PnL per $
-15%
historical realized
Win rate
83.5%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$457.1K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 34 resolved trades · -15% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
46
Distinct markets
16
Volume (90d)
$849.5K
avg $18.5K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$688.1K / $161.4K
net direction

Recent trades

last 46 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 19, 08:48 PMExact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?BUY NO0.998$75.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:47 PMWill England win on 2026-07-18?BUY YES0.970$73.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 12:33 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?BUY NO0.972$3,367Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 02:31 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?BUY NO0.979$8,465Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 02:30 PMPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.910$10.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 11:35 AMUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?BUY NO0.988$5,051Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 07:51 AMWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?BUY NO0.997$2,687Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 09:05 PMWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?BUY NO0.993$1,250Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 05:28 PMWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?BUY NO0.995$1,958Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 11:10 AMTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?BUY NO0.996$2,456Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 09:28 AM Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?BUY NO0.997$12.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 09:25 AMTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?BUY NO0.994$4,258Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 09:23 AMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?BUY NO0.999$6,613Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 09:23 AMWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?BUY NO0.994$11.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 09:15 AMTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?BUY NO0.992$1,470Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 09:57 PMTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?BUY NO0.990$12.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 12:03 PMTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?BUY NO0.984$5,296Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 12:01 PMWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?BUY NO0.989$23.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 08:58 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?SELL NO0.998$3,991— (SELL)
Jun 22, 10:19 AMTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?BUY NO0.960$4,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 02:15 PMWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?BUY NO0.979$11.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 02:07 PM Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?BUY NO0.960$8,628Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 02:01 PMTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?BUY NO0.969$28.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 01:49 PMTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?BUY NO0.967$10.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 01:37 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?BUY NO0.995$5,363Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 01:27 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?SELL NO0.996$2,226— (SELL)
Jun 21, 01:27 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?SELL NO0.996$1,514— (SELL)
Jun 21, 01:27 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?SELL NO0.996$67.7K— (SELL)
Jun 4, 02:33 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY NO0.975$18.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 01:51 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY NO0.976$11.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 11:41 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY NO0.974$1,015Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 02:01 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY NO0.973$2,441Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 01:41 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY NO0.982$2,405Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 12:38 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?BUY NO0.969$11.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 12:37 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY NO0.979$16.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 06:50 PM0x789c947aBUY NO0.992$49.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 06:50 PM0x789c947aBUY NO0.992$66.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 04:18 PM0x789c947aBUY NO0.990$7,331Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 04:18 PM0x789c947aBUY NO0.990$1,311Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 04:18 PM0x789c947aBUY NO0.990$14.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 08:51 AM0x1db02ba5BUY NO0.998$59.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 09:01 AM0x1db02ba5BUY NO0.989$34.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 06:20 AM0x2509daa2BUY NO0.998$21.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 09:53 AM0x1db02ba5BUY NO0.959$37.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 09:43 AM0xb24aa722BUY NO0.940$3,139Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 08:15 AM0x924a2942SELL NO0.999$86.0K— (SELL)

Markets active in

16 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
0x789c947a5$139.3K+$139.3K
0x1db02ba53$131.4K+$131.4K
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Other10$127.3K$-23,675
0x924a29421$86.0K$-85,958
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?Tech1$75.0K+$75.0K
Will England win on 2026-07-18?Other1$73.0K+$73.0K
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Politics8$68.2K+$68.2K
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Politics5$41.4K+$41.4K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Other3$23.0K+$23.0K
0x2509daa21$21.7K+$21.7K
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Other2$21.3K+$21.3K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Other2$11.8K+$11.8K
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics1$11.0K+$11.0K
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics1$10.9K+$10.9K
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?Other1$5,051+$5,051
0xb24aa7221$3,139+$3,139