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Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x4a65…06bb with our methodology badges per row.

0x4a650133a506a876352f8e8021ec3d220dab06bb·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
4
lifetime
PnL per $
-30%
historical realized
Win rate
69.5%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$152.7K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 4 resolved trades · -30% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
44
Distinct markets
19
Volume (90d)
$916.6K
avg $20.8K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$742.7K / $173.9K
net direction

Recent trades

last 44 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
May 29, 11:00 PMWill Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL YES0.010$1,781— (SELL)
May 29, 11:00 PMWill Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL YES0.007$1,229— (SELL)
May 29, 11:00 PMWill Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL YES0.007$2,100— (SELL)
May 29, 10:59 PMWill Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL YES0.009$2,205— (SELL)
May 29, 10:59 PMWill Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL YES0.006$2,734— (SELL)
May 29, 10:59 PMWill Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL YES0.007$2,800— (SELL)
May 12, 12:25 AMWill Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL YES0.008$1,172— (SELL)
May 12, 12:12 AMEpstein suicide note released by May 8?SELL NO0.999$46.5K— (SELL)
May 11, 11:55 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.836$17.5K— (SELL)
May 11, 10:03 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.838$13.2K— (SELL)
May 11, 09:52 PMEpstein suicide note released by May 8?BUY NO0.998$4,476Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 08:55 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.839$20.5K— (SELL)
May 11, 08:36 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.112$3,196— (SELL)
May 11, 03:34 PMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.924$4,907Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 03:33 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.113$2,464— (SELL)
May 11, 03:20 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.114$3,546— (SELL)
May 11, 03:19 PMWill Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.019$2,370— (SELL)
May 10, 10:02 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.112$9,587Killed band — neutral expectation
May 10, 10:00 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.822$39.0K— (SELL)
May 10, 08:11 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.822$6,116Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 06:40 PMWill Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY NO0.994$47.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 06:40 PMWill Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY NO0.994$99.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 06:38 PMWill Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY NO0.992$99.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 04:34 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.158$2,952Killed band — neutral expectation
May 10, 12:03 AMWill Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY NO0.993$79.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 12:02 AMWill Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY NO0.993$99.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 12:02 AMWill Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY NO0.993$99.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 11:51 PMWill Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?SELL YES0.011$1,965— (SELL)
May 9, 09:30 PMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.075$1,173Killed band — neutral expectation
May 9, 11:09 AMWill Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?SELL YES0.015$1,049— (SELL)
May 9, 11:07 AMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.155$1,168Killed band — neutral expectation
May 9, 11:05 AMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.154$17.9KKilled band — neutral expectation
May 9, 11:04 AMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.170$1,770Killed band — neutral expectation
May 8, 02:22 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.832$20.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 01:26 PMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.074$1,975— (SELL)
May 7, 01:26 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.832$8,961Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 01:25 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.832$16.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 09:00 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.833$6,555— (SELL)
May 5, 03:23 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.834$1,809Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 03:23 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.833$7,465Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 02:46 PMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.926$5,721Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 02:50 AMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.074$5,448Killed band — neutral expectation
May 3, 06:06 PMQatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?BUY YES0.998$4,990Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 06:03 PMQatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?BUY YES0.998$96.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

19 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics3$278.0K+$278.0K
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics2$147.3K+$147.3K
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other9$108.9K+$17.7K
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?Other2$101.6K+$101.6K
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics1$99.1K+$99.1K
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Tech6$73.2K$-29,207
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Other2$51.0K$-42,051
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other5$19.2K+$15.3K
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other4$18.8K+$380
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics1$2,800$-2,800
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics1$2,734$-2,734
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$2,370$-2,370
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics1$2,205$-2,205
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics1$2,100$-2,100
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics1$1,965$-1,965
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics1$1,781$-1,781
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics1$1,229$-1,229
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics1$1,172$-1,172
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics1$1,049$-1,049