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0x4a1a…0208
Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x4a1a…0208 with our methodology badges per row.
Resolved trades
4
lifetime
PnL per $
-46%
historical realized
Win rate
54.4%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$65.5K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails
The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 4 resolved trades · -46% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.
Trades (90d)
6
Distinct markets
5
Volume (90d)
$80.6K
avg $13.4K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$50.7K / $29.9K
net direction
Recent trades
last 6 · 90d window| When | Market | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 08:41 PM | Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | BUY NO | 0.999 | $26.4K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 14, 09:14 PM | Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | BUY YES | 0.999 | $3,213 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 05:19 PM | Game 2: Ends in Daytime? | BUY YES | 0.982 | $7,702 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 11:16 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $6,015 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 07:36 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $29.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 04:51 PM | 0x28898300 | BUY NO | 0.984 | $7,375 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
Markets active in
5 markets · sorted by volume| Market | Category | Trades | Volume | Net BUY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Crypto | 2 | $35.9K | $-23,895 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | Other | 1 | $26.4K | +$26.4K |
| Game 2: Ends in Daytime? | Other | 1 | $7,702 | +$7,702 |
| 0x28898300 | — | 1 | $7,375 | +$7,375 |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | Other | 1 | $3,213 | +$3,213 |