schizohedgehog

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x4755…4158 with our methodology badges per row.

0x4755188644460fc8140a18ccefc1e80b6a5e4158·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-34%

historical realized

Win rate

63.2%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$811.4K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 51 resolved trades · -34% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

110

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$1.52M

avg $13.8K / trade

BUY vs SELL

$950.9K / $566.0K

net direction

Recent trades

last 110 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 13, 10:10 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.980	$11.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 10:09 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.979	$13.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 10:08 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.978	$10.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 10:08 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.990	$34.7K	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 03:17 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.978	$8,660	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:16 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.992	$8,662	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 02:17 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.978	$5,751	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:17 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.994	$5,254	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 12:12 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	BUY NO	0.840	$5,385	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 12:12 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	BUY NO	0.828	$10.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 12:12 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.991	$16.5K	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 11:40 AM	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	BUY NO	0.979	$15.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 11:39 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.992	$1,985	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 11:39 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.992	$13.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 07:06 PM	Ethereum flipped in 2026?	BUY YES	0.990	$3,887	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 07:06 PM	Ethereum flipped in 2026?	BUY YES	0.960	$5,122	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 06:09 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.986	$40.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 02:04 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.700	$3,207	— (SELL)
May 30, 09:34 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.720	$9,407	— (SELL)
May 30, 09:32 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.730	$5,593	— (SELL)
May 30, 05:08 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.750	$27.0K	— (SELL)
May 29, 03:48 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.776	$52.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:34 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.840	$3,633	— (SELL)
May 29, 05:16 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$17.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 05:06 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.570	$1,062	— (SELL)
May 29, 04:23 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.900	$2,984	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 04:19 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.720	$2,221	— (SELL)
May 29, 03:48 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.900	$2,661	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:47 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.776	$3,535	— (SELL)
May 29, 03:25 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$3,185	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:25 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.800	$3,214	— (SELL)
May 29, 03:23 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$6,880	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:22 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.787	$6,942	— (SELL)
May 28, 09:06 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.890	$20.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:04 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.980	$20.9K	— (SELL)
May 28, 05:36 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.929	$9,762	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 05:36 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.981	$9,808	— (SELL)
May 26, 09:49 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.970	$7,329	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 09:48 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.969	$4,407	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 09:48 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.980	$11.8K	— (SELL)
May 26, 08:22 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.969	$3,209	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 08:22 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.980	$3,209	— (SELL)
May 26, 08:20 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.967	$1,595	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 06:10 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.966	$1,931	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 02:44 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.970	$7,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 02:43 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.980	$7,800	— (SELL)
May 26, 12:10 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.980	$4,386	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:10 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.980	$4,393	— (SELL)
May 26, 12:08 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.980	$8,256	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:07 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.982	$8,197	— (SELL)
May 7, 05:52 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$18.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 10:45 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.950	$20.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 10:41 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.940	$9,691	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 05:12 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.950	$19.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 05:12 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	SELL NO	0.997	$19.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 27, 01:50 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.950	$17.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 01:49 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.967	$49.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 01:48 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.940	$12.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 24, 04:54 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	BUY NO	0.970	$22.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 23, 07:28 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	BUY NO	0.950	$20.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 04:44 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	BUY NO	0.969	$5,264	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 04:43 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	SELL NO	0.989	$5,271	— (SELL)
Apr 21, 05:03 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	BUY NO	0.968	$3,860	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 04:17 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	BUY NO	0.968	$5,995	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 04:16 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	SELL NO	0.870	$5,759	— (SELL)
Apr 19, 07:33 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	BUY NO	0.970	$15.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 07:32 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	SELL NO	0.993	$15.1K	— (SELL)
Apr 18, 10:31 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	BUY NO	0.875	$7,696	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 10:31 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,916	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 10:31 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	SELL NO	0.994	$9,966	— (SELL)
Apr 18, 06:27 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	BUY NO	0.979	$24.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 06:27 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	SELL NO	0.995	$24.7K	— (SELL)
Apr 17, 01:30 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	BUY NO	0.970	$29.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 01:29 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	SELL NO	0.993	$29.8K	— (SELL)
Apr 17, 01:26 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	BUY NO	0.981	$10.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 01:26 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	SELL NO	0.994	$10.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 17, 01:25 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	BUY NO	0.980	$15.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 01:25 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	SELL NO	0.995	$15.1K	— (SELL)
Apr 17, 10:28 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	BUY NO	0.978	$14.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 10:27 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	SELL NO	0.994	$14.8K	— (SELL)
Apr 17, 10:24 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	BUY NO	0.960	$9,660	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 10:24 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	SELL NO	0.994	$10.1K	— (SELL)
Apr 17, 04:45 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	BUY NO	0.960	$17.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 04:44 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	SELL NO	0.993	$17.7K	— (SELL)
Apr 15, 11:46 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	BUY NO	0.968	$11.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 11:46 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	SELL NO	0.993	$11.7K	— (SELL)
Apr 14, 05:55 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	BUY NO	0.970	$11.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 05:55 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	BUY NO	0.969	$15.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 05:51 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	BUY NO	0.967	$12.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 05:50 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	BUY NO	0.966	$21.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 05:50 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	BUY NO	0.963	$7,772	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 02:53 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	SELL NO	0.920	$31.4K	— (SELL)
Apr 8, 12:49 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	BUY NO	0.970	$30.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 12:49 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	SELL NO	0.989	$30.5K	— (SELL)
Apr 8, 12:47 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	BUY NO	0.968	$41.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 12:46 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	SELL NO	0.989	$42.0K	— (SELL)
Apr 4, 04:57 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY NO	0.976	$34.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 04:54 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY NO	0.975	$3,489	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 04:48 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY NO	0.974	$14.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 04:45 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY NO	0.973	$14.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 04:45 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY NO	0.972	$33.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 06:32 AM	0x92d2f5f6	BUY NO	0.994	$7,234	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 06:32 AM	0x09e8f0db	SELL NO	0.999	$7,234	— (SELL)
Mar 27, 07:13 PM	0x710bcdc2	BUY NO	0.990	$17.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 07:13 PM	0x710bcdc2	BUY NO	0.987	$4,102	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 07:12 PM	0x09e8f0db	SELL NO	0.997	$21.2K	— (SELL)
Mar 24, 06:28 AM	0x92d2f5f6	BUY NO	0.981	$17.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 06:28 AM	0x09e8f0db	SELL NO	0.991	$17.8K	— (SELL)
Mar 24, 06:02 AM	0x92d2f5f6	BUY NO	0.981	$12.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 06:02 AM	0x09e8f0db	SELL NO	0.992	$12.3K	— (SELL)

Markets active in

22 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	Other	17	$333.0K	$-131,500
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Other	6	$149.9K	+$47.2K
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	Other	11	$121.7K	$-47,465
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	Other	5	$119.1K	+$22.0K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Other	5	$97.8K	+$7,287
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	Other	5	$77.9K	+$77.9K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	Other	6	$74.1K	+$63.6K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Crypto	14	$65.6K	+$31.7K
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?	Other	3	$63.4K	+$35.5K
0x09e8f0db	—	4	$58.5K	$-58,523
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	Other	5	$58.3K	+$46.8K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Other	7	$58.2K	+$50.9K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Tech	5	$49.1K	+$49.1K
0x92d2f5f6	—	3	$36.9K	+$36.9K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	Other	4	$30.2K	+$30.2K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Other	1	$29.8K	+$29.8K
0x710bcdc2	—	2	$21.2K	+$21.2K
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	Other	1	$18.9K	+$18.9K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Tech	2	$15.9K	+$15.9K
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	Tech	1	$15.7K	+$15.7K
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?	Other	1	$12.8K	+$12.8K
Ethereum flipped in 2026?	Crypto	2	$9,009	+$9,009