anon.1980.123

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x4699…e03c with our methodology badges per row.

0x46992d0e547e3822a9c28723f51bfa804ae4e03c·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

1,136

lifetime

PnL per $

-19%

historical realized

Win rate

76.4%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$5.51M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 1136 resolved trades · -19% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

129

Volume (90d)

$818.9K

avg $4,095 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$636.8K / $182.1K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 20, 06:51 PM	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 20?	BUY NO	0.984	$1,880	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 06:38 PM	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?	BUY YES	0.984	$2,246	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 06:16 PM	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 21?	BUY NO	0.988	$1,172	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 06:04 PM	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 20?	SELL NO	0.999	$8,611	— (SELL)
Jul 20, 05:19 PM	Iran full airspace closure by July 21?	BUY NO	0.967	$11.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 05:16 PM	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 21?	BUY NO	0.989	$3,962	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 05:16 PM	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 21?	BUY NO	0.990	$2,338	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 05:15 PM	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	BUY NO	0.989	$3,709	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 05:15 PM	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?	SELL NO	0.999	$1,530	— (SELL)
Jul 20, 05:15 PM	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?	SELL YES	0.999	$6,506	— (SELL)
Jul 20, 05:14 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 21?	BUY YES	0.990	$1,431	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 05:13 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 21?	BUY NO	0.984	$7,007	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 04:41 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 20?	BUY NO	0.945	$4,783	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 03:13 PM	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 20?	SELL NO	0.999	$1,614	— (SELL)
Jul 20, 03:13 PM	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 20?	SELL NO	0.999	$5,582	— (SELL)
Jul 20, 02:02 PM	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?	BUY YES	0.950	$6,187	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 02:01 PM	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?	SELL NO	0.999	$3,061	— (SELL)
Jul 20, 02:01 PM	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?	BUY NO	0.950	$1,369	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 12:46 PM	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 20?	BUY NO	0.990	$7,375	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 12:44 PM	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 21?	BUY NO	0.985	$1,003	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 12:43 PM	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on July 21?	BUY NO	0.990	$2,685	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 12:15 PM	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?	BUY YES	0.985	$13.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 12:14 PM	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 21?	BUY NO	0.975	$1,316	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 12:13 PM	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on July 21?	BUY NO	0.989	$1,119	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 12:12 PM	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 21?	BUY NO	0.988	$1,052	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 12:12 PM	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 21?	BUY NO	0.989	$6,179	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 12:09 PM	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on July 20?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,135	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 12:09 PM	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 20?	BUY NO	0.993	$2,156	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 11:28 AM	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	BUY NO	0.982	$2,970	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 09:46 AM	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?	BUY YES	0.978	$2,450	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 12:17 AM	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	BUY NO	0.992	$1,337	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 12:16 AM	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?	BUY NO	0.990	$2,429	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 12:15 AM	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 20?	BUY NO	0.990	$2,127	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 12:12 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 20?	BUY YES	0.990	$1,929	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 12:11 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?	BUY NO	0.983	$7,551	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:55 PM	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 20?	BUY NO	0.990	$2,383	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:54 PM	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 20?	BUY NO	0.980	$5,236	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:53 PM	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?	BUY YES	0.970	$2,110	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:47 PM	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 20?	BUY NO	0.989	$2,265	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:41 PM	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 20?	BUY NO	0.978	$2,609	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:33 PM	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 20?	BUY NO	0.985	$1,433	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:32 PM	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on July 20?	BUY NO	0.983	$1,048	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:31 PM	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 20?	BUY NO	0.988	$1,026	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:23 PM	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 20?	BUY NO	0.982	$1,319	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:21 PM	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on July 20?	BUY NO	0.973	$1,345	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:18 PM	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 20?	BUY NO	0.977	$1,589	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:16 PM	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 20?	BUY NO	0.990	$11.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:14 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	SELL NO	0.995	$19.2K	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:03 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.920	$10.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 08:58 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.897	$3,042	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 08:58 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.900	$3,049	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 08:58 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.897	$3,042	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 08:57 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.892	$1,794	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 08:00 PM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	SELL YES	0.999	$9,990	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 08:00 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.793	$3,967	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 07:58 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.792	$7,925	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 07:57 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.790	$7,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 07:50 PM	Argentina leading at halftime?	BUY NO	0.960	$3,385	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 03:48 PM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	BUY YES	0.988	$3,097	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 03:02 PM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	BUY YES	0.986	$6,771	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 12:28 AM	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 19?	BUY NO	0.983	$1,347	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 12:26 AM	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 19?	BUY NO	0.979	$1,231	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 12:05 AM	Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-07-18?	BUY NO	0.960	$3,619	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 12:04 AM	Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-07-18?	BUY NO	0.960	$3,907	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 12:04 AM	Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-07-18?	BUY NO	0.960	$3,159	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 11:54 PM	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 19?	BUY NO	0.985	$3,308	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 11:22 PM	Will England win on 2026-07-18?	SELL YES	0.999	$55.0K	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:45 PM	Will England win on 2026-07-18?	SELL YES	0.579	$4,360	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:00 PM	Will England win on 2026-07-18?	BUY YES	0.969	$8,809	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:00 PM	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 13-19?	SELL NO	0.985	$8,919	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 09:58 PM	Will England win on 2026-07-18?	BUY YES	0.970	$13.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:56 PM	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on July 18?	SELL NO	0.999	$1,046	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 09:56 PM	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 18?	SELL NO	0.999	$1,167	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 09:56 PM	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 17?	SELL NO	0.999	$1,334	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 09:55 PM	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 17?	SELL NO	0.999	$2,642	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 09:55 PM	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 18?	SELL NO	0.999	$3,380	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 09:48 PM	Will England win on 2026-07-18?	BUY YES	0.970	$33.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:32 PM	Will England win on 2026-07-18?	SELL NO	0.339	$6,772	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 09:31 PM	England leading at halftime?	BUY YES	0.950	$22.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 06:30 PM	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 19?	BUY NO	0.985	$9,874	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 04:19 PM	Will England win on 2026-07-18?	BUY NO	0.760	$7,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 04:18 PM	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?	BUY NO	0.985	$1,835	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 12:57 PM	Will England win on 2026-07-18?	BUY NO	0.760	$7,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:54 AM	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 19?	BUY NO	0.958	$1,304	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:54 AM	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C or higher on July 19?	BUY NO	0.988	$2,023	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:51 AM	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 19?	BUY NO	0.986	$1,076	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:50 AM	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C or below on July 19?	BUY NO	0.986	$1,867	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:47 AM	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?	BUY NO	0.965	$6,660	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:45 AM	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 19?	BUY NO	0.989	$1,608	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:43 AM	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 19?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,772	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:37 AM	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 19?	BUY NO	0.971	$1,409	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:37 AM	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 19?	BUY NO	0.985	$3,689	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:35 AM	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C or higher on July 19?	BUY NO	0.985	$1,121	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:33 AM	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 19?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,251	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:33 AM	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 19?	BUY NO	0.977	$1,159	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:32 AM	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 19?	BUY NO	0.988	$1,643	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:20 AM	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on July 18?	BUY NO	0.986	$1,032	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 11:41 PM	Will EC Bahia win on 2026-07-17?	BUY YES	0.966	$2,091	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 11:41 PM	Will EC Bahia win on 2026-07-17?	BUY YES	0.965	$2,389	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 11:40 PM	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 17?	BUY NO	0.994	$1,497	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 10:46 PM	Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-07-17?	BUY NO	0.970	$6,237	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 09:53 PM	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on July 18?	BUY NO	0.990	$6,509	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 09:51 PM	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 18?	BUY NO	0.990	$2,465	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 08:49 PM	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 18?	BUY NO	0.989	$5,242	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 08:24 PM	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 18?	BUY NO	0.979	$4,028	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 08:23 PM	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 18?	BUY NO	0.985	$2,709	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 08:20 PM	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 18?	BUY NO	0.989	$2,652	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 08:19 PM	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?	BUY NO	0.988	$3,864	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 07:07 PM	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 18?	BUY NO	0.982	$1,840	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 07:06 PM	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 18?	BUY NO	0.991	$2,737	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 07:01 PM	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?	BUY NO	0.980	$3,259	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 04:36 PM	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?	BUY NO	0.989	$1,983	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 04:35 PM	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	SELL NO	0.999	$11.1K	— (SELL)
Jul 17, 04:34 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on July 17?	BUY NO	0.979	$5,044	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 03:51 PM	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 13-19?	BUY NO	0.977	$8,159	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 03:51 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?	BUY NO	0.964	$8,424	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 03:50 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 17?	SELL YES	0.999	$5,114	— (SELL)
Jul 17, 03:04 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 17?	BUY NO	0.990	$4,806	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 03:03 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 17?	BUY NO	0.990	$4,806	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 03:03 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 17?	SELL NO	0.999	$4,995	— (SELL)
Jul 17, 02:54 PM	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 18?	BUY NO	0.969	$1,974	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 02:33 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 17?	BUY YES	0.970	$4,966	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 01:05 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 17?	BUY NO	0.970	$6,968	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 01:01 PM	Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-07-17?	BUY NO	0.940	$9,401	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 12:09 PM	Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	BUY NO	0.989	$1,276	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 11:59 AM	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?	BUY NO	0.952	$1,388	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 10:26 AM	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?	BUY NO	0.925	$1,270	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 10:23 AM	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 17?	BUY NO	0.989	$1,221	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 02:15 AM	Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-07-16?	BUY NO	0.976	$3,157	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 02:14 AM	Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-07-16?	BUY NO	0.987	$2,673	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 01:52 AM	Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-07-16?	BUY NO	0.949	$4,465	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 01:38 AM	Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	BUY NO	0.976	$3,470	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 01:35 AM	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?	BUY NO	0.982	$2,314	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 01:26 AM	Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on July 17?	BUY NO	0.970	$2,998	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 01:25 AM	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 17?	BUY NO	0.984	$1,379	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 01:18 AM	Will Toronto FC win on 2026-07-16?	BUY NO	0.860	$1,993	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 01:17 AM	Will Toronto FC win on 2026-07-16?	BUY NO	0.857	$2,723	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 01:11 AM	Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on July 16?	BUY NO	0.970	$4,511	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 01:09 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on July 16?	BUY NO	0.980	$4,660	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 08:07 PM	Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on July 17?	BUY NO	0.985	$4,228	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 07:59 PM	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 16?	BUY NO	0.986	$1,011	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 07:58 PM	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 16?	BUY NO	0.984	$1,144	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 07:57 PM	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 16?	BUY NO	0.983	$1,528	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 04:22 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 17?	BUY NO	0.925	$4,627	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 04:22 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 17?	BUY YES	0.983	$9,343	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 04:17 PM	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 16?	BUY NO	0.987	$1,082	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 02:35 PM	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	BUY NO	0.992	$2,815	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 01:53 PM	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?	BUY NO	0.988	$2,519	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 01:53 PM	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?	BUY NO	0.985	$1,478	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:53 PM	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	BUY NO	0.992	$4,967	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:52 PM	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	BUY NO	0.988	$3,315	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:52 PM	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,742	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:48 PM	Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	SELL NO	0.959	$5,754	— (SELL)
Jul 16, 12:35 PM	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 17?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,115	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:26 PM	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 17?	BUY NO	0.969	$4,581	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:26 PM	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 17?	BUY NO	0.985	$1,215	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:16 PM	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 17?	BUY NO	0.984	$1,648	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:14 PM	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on July 17?	BUY NO	0.976	$2,324	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:13 PM	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 17?	BUY NO	0.992	$1,632	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:12 PM	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 17?	BUY NO	0.986	$3,087	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:12 PM	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 17?	BUY NO	0.989	$1,548	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:09 PM	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 17?	BUY NO	0.976	$2,993	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:06 PM	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 17?	BUY NO	0.985	$1,952	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:05 PM	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 17?	BUY NO	0.989	$1,033	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:05 PM	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 17?	BUY NO	0.989	$1,052	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:04 PM	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 40°C on July 17?	BUY NO	0.977	$1,217	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:04 PM	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on July 17?	BUY NO	0.982	$1,353	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:02 PM	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 17?	BUY NO	0.969	$2,236	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 11:26 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 16?	BUY YES	0.989	$2,336	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 11:25 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 16?	BUY NO	0.989	$3,564	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 10:09 AM	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 17?	BUY NO	0.975	$1,109	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 10:09 AM	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 17?	BUY NO	0.992	$1,939	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 10:07 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 16?	BUY NO	0.987	$2,369	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 10:06 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 16?	BUY NO	0.982	$2,432	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 10:59 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 16?	BUY YES	0.990	$2,125	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 10:56 PM	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on July 16?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,323	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 10:55 PM	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on July 16?	BUY NO	0.977	$1,437	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 10:10 PM	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 16?	BUY NO	0.989	$1,475	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 10:09 PM	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 16?	BUY NO	0.968	$1,565	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 10:03 PM	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 16?	BUY NO	0.962	$2,227	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 10:02 PM	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 16?	BUY NO	0.984	$1,640	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:59 PM	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 16?	BUY NO	0.986	$1,456	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:58 PM	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 16?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,440	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:58 PM	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 16?	BUY NO	0.988	$1,414	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:56 PM	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	SELL NO	0.998	$3,431	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 09:54 PM	Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	BUY NO	0.990	$5,124	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:54 PM	Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	BUY NO	0.985	$3,312	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:55 PM	Argentina leading at halftime?	SELL NO	0.999	$9,982	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:55 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?	SELL NO	0.105	$1,054	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 06:32 PM	Argentina leading at halftime?	BUY NO	0.760	$7,594	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 05:56 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 15?	BUY NO	0.982	$4,468	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 03:02 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 15?	BUY YES	0.975	$4,640	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 01:22 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 15?	BUY YES	0.989	$8,329	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 01:22 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 15?	BUY YES	0.987	$3,204	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 11:49 PM	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?	BUY NO	0.947	$2,872	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 11:41 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 14?	BUY NO	0.950	$5,313	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 11:37 PM	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 15?	BUY NO	0.975	$1,120	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 11:36 PM	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 15?	BUY NO	0.988	$3,174	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 11:36 PM	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 35°C on July 15?	BUY NO	0.988	$1,359	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 11:33 PM	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 15?	BUY NO	0.989	$1,603	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

129 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will England win on 2026-07-18?	Other	8	$136.6K	+$4,318
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Other	9	$60.4K	+$22.0K
England leading at halftime?	Other	1	$22.3K	+$22.3K
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Other	4	$21.1K	$-1,028
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?	Other	9	$20.8K	+$20.8K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?	Other	4	$20.2K	+$20.2K
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	Politics	3	$19.9K	$-122
Argentina leading at halftime?	Other	2	$17.6K	$-2,388
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 20?	Other	2	$17.2K	+$6,022
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 13-19?	Crypto	2	$17.1K	$-760
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 17?	Crypto	3	$16.6K	+$16.6K
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 20?	Other	2	$16.0K	$-1,236
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?	Crypto	2	$16.0K	+$16.0K
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 19?	Other	2	$13.6K	+$13.6K
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?	Other	2	$12.7K	$-319
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 15?	Crypto	2	$11.5K	+$11.5K
Iran full airspace closure by July 21?	Tech	1	$11.1K	+$11.1K
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-07-18?	Other	3	$10.7K	+$10.7K
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 20?	Other	4	$10.6K	+$7,338
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	Other	3	$10.5K	$-1,007
Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-07-16?	Other	3	$10.3K	+$10.3K
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 17?	Crypto	2	$10.1K	$-148
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 17?	Crypto	2	$9,622	$-368
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-07-17?	Other	1	$9,401	+$9,401
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 17?	Crypto	1	$9,343	+$9,343
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	Tech	2	$8,435	+$8,435
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 16?	Crypto	3	$8,365	+$8,365
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on July 17?	Other	2	$7,226	+$7,226
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 21?	Crypto	1	$7,007	+$7,007
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	Other	2	$6,680	+$6,680

Showing top 30 by volume.