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1xx3
Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x4408…1b6a with our methodology badges per row.
Resolved trades
9
lifetime
PnL per $
-35%
historical realized
Win rate
36.5%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$109.2K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails
The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 9 resolved trades · -35% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.
Trades (90d)
57
Distinct markets
42
Volume (90d)
$461.9K
avg $8,104 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$215.2K / $246.7K
net direction
Recent trades
last 57 · 90d window| When | Market | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 05:59 AM | Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score | BUY NO | 0.470 | $11.1K | — |
| Jul 11, 12:55 PM | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.941 | $1,003 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 10, 07:00 PM | Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw? | BUY YES | 0.247 | $7,378 | Cheap band — no rep |
| Jul 6, 07:04 PM | Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw? | BUY YES | 0.280 | $11.6K | Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 30, 08:59 PM | Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $4,788 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 30, 05:09 PM | Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw? | SELL YES | 0.300 | $2,370 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 30, 05:00 PM | Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw? | BUY YES | 0.290 | $1,965 | Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 29, 04:02 PM | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | BUY YES | 0.550 | $13.8K | — |
| Jun 25, 11:11 PM | Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? | BUY NO | 0.673 | $8,908 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 25, 11:03 PM | Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | BUY NO | 0.626 | $1,961 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 21, 07:04 PM | Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? | BUY YES | 0.210 | $4,799 | Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 11, 06:23 PM | Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | BUY YES | 0.210 | $4,265 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 30, 06:54 PM | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $48.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 06:28 PM | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $21.9K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 06:16 PM | 0xf3c9e1fc | SELL NO | 0.999 | $64.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 06:59 PM | 0x1877994c | BUY YES | 0.290 | $1,450 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 23, 06:59 PM | 0x510f8c09 | BUY NO | 0.610 | $3,228 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 06:59 PM | 0x2aa9d909 | BUY YES | 0.290 | $1,450 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 23, 06:59 PM | 0x43290f7a | BUY NO | 0.490 | $3,404 | — |
| May 23, 06:53 PM | 0x510f8c09 | BUY NO | 0.600 | $7,185 | — |
| May 23, 06:47 PM | 0x510f8c09 | BUY NO | 0.590 | $7,218 | — |
| May 23, 06:46 PM | 0xb6d36adb | BUY YES | 0.280 | $2,800 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 17, 08:47 PM | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? | SELL NO | 0.130 | $1,028 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 07:04 PM | 0x5c2c5ea6 | BUY YES | 0.220 | $2,981 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 17, 05:31 PM | 0x1fa4b0ca | SELL NO | 0.999 | $26.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 04:55 PM | 0xfde216e5 | BUY YES | 0.280 | $1,398 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 17, 04:54 PM | 0x859ebf7f | BUY NO | 0.680 | $5,982 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 04:45 PM | 0x859ebf7f | BUY NO | 0.660 | $9,659 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 04:30 PM | 0xeece5183 | BUY YES | 0.245 | $3,393 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 17, 03:59 PM | 0x1fa4b0ca | SELL NO | 0.999 | $40.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 02:37 PM | 0x19b0fd5f | BUY NO | 0.610 | $1,192 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 01:22 PM | 0xbacdba0b | BUY YES | 0.260 | $4,958 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 17, 01:08 PM | 0xbacdba0b | BUY YES | 0.250 | $1,298 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 16, 04:57 PM | 0x0ae1aa36 | BUY YES | 0.290 | $4,773 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 16, 04:39 PM | 0x66b01e0b | BUY YES | 0.280 | $2,240 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 16, 04:33 PM | 0x66b01e0b | BUY YES | 0.280 | $2,800 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 16, 04:32 PM | 0x66b01e0b | BUY YES | 0.280 | $1,328 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 16, 04:15 PM | 0x66b01e0b | BUY YES | 0.280 | $3,309 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 16, 04:11 PM | 0x955e5524 | BUY YES | 0.310 | $5,013 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 16, 02:28 PM | 0x682ce1e1 | BUY YES | 0.290 | $4,982 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 16, 02:27 PM | 0xbe2caaed | SELL YES | 0.068 | $1,335 | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 02:04 PM | 0x54b62524 | BUY NO | 0.590 | $1,282 | — |
| May 16, 02:04 PM | 0x41090f0c | SELL YES | 0.290 | $1,107 | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 02:03 PM | 0x41090f0c | BUY YES | 0.305 | $1,166 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 16, 02:02 PM | 0x54b62524 | BUY NO | 0.580 | $1,387 | — |
| May 16, 02:02 PM | 0x54b62524 | BUY NO | 0.580 | $1,017 | — |
| May 11, 07:12 PM | 0x797458ac | BUY YES | 0.300 | $1,299 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 11, 07:08 PM | 0x797458ac | BUY YES | 0.300 | $1,917 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 10, 06:54 PM | 0xf50ce71a | BUY YES | 0.299 | $1,511 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 10, 06:52 PM | 0xfb7f57b0 | BUY NO | 0.600 | $13.7K | — |
| May 10, 06:44 PM | 0xfb7f57b0 | BUY NO | 0.590 | $1,609 | — |
| May 10, 03:13 PM | 0xf0c46231 | SELL NO | 0.999 | $2,035 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 02:59 PM | 0x883c28ce | SELL NO | 0.999 | $58.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 05:57 PM | 0x258f9b58 | BUY YES | 0.270 | $1,615 | Cheap band — no rep |
| May 9, 05:43 PM | 0xaac8fff5 | BUY YES | 0.500 | $1,177 | — |
| May 9, 04:30 PM | 0xc6816184 | BUY NO | 0.460 | $9,746 | — |
| May 9, 12:56 PM | 0xaadc86a1 | BUY YES | 0.240 | $2,288 | Cheap band — no rep |
Markets active in
42 markets · sorted by volume| Market | Category | Trades | Volume | Net BUY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | Tech | 2 | $70.7K | $-26,807 |
| 0x1fa4b0ca | — | 2 | $66.6K | $-66,633 |
| 0xf3c9e1fc | — | 1 | $64.6K | $-64,574 |
| 0x883c28ce | — | 1 | $58.9K | $-58,902 |
| 0x510f8c09 | — | 3 | $17.6K | +$17.6K |
| 0x859ebf7f | — | 2 | $15.6K | +$15.6K |
| 0xfb7f57b0 | — | 2 | $15.3K | +$15.3K |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | Other | 1 | $13.8K | +$13.8K |
| Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw? | Tech | 1 | $11.6K | +$11.6K |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score | Tech | 1 | $11.1K | +$11.1K |
| 0xc6816184 | — | 1 | $9,746 | +$9,746 |
| 0x66b01e0b | — | 4 | $9,678 | +$9,678 |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? | Other | 1 | $8,908 | +$8,908 |
| Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw? | Tech | 1 | $7,378 | +$7,378 |
| 0xbacdba0b | — | 2 | $6,256 | +$6,256 |
| 0x955e5524 | — | 1 | $5,013 | +$5,013 |
| 0x682ce1e1 | — | 1 | $4,982 | +$4,982 |
| Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? | Other | 1 | $4,799 | +$4,799 |
| Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw? | Other | 1 | $4,788 | +$4,788 |
| 0x0ae1aa36 | — | 1 | $4,773 | +$4,773 |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw? | Other | 2 | $4,335 | $-405 |
| Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Other | 1 | $4,265 | +$4,265 |
| 0x54b62524 | — | 3 | $3,686 | +$3,686 |
| 0x43290f7a | — | 1 | $3,404 | +$3,404 |
| 0xeece5183 | — | 1 | $3,393 | +$3,393 |
| 0x797458ac | — | 2 | $3,216 | +$3,216 |
| 0x5c2c5ea6 | — | 1 | $2,981 | +$2,981 |
| 0xb6d36adb | — | 1 | $2,800 | +$2,800 |
| 0xaadc86a1 | — | 1 | $2,288 | +$2,288 |
| 0x41090f0c | — | 2 | $2,274 | +$59 |
Showing top 30 by volume.