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acfc8

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x4154…e7a8 with our methodology badges per row.

0x4154ffdc11d057087ea5b67fda6e1388ac8ee7a8·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
37
lifetime
PnL per $
-62%
historical realized
Win rate
35.2%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$387.2K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 37 resolved trades · -62% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
38
Distinct markets
10
Volume (90d)
$388.9K
avg $10.2K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$361.3K / $27.6K
net direction

Recent trades

last 38 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 19, 12:08 AMLionel Messi: 2+ goalsBUY YES0.080$1,600Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 19, 12:06 AMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.930$17.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 11:34 PMLionel Messi: 3+ goalsBUY YES0.026$2,643
Jul 18, 11:31 PMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.930$37.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:33 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.053$13.9K— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:31 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.053$11.2K— (SELL)
Jul 15, 09:21 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.674$1,553Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:18 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.689$24.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:17 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.678$12.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:17 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.670$6,092Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:17 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.660$8,240Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:17 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.659$2,469Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:10 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.705$35.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:10 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.703$47.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:10 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.701$1,770Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:09 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.700$1,486Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:04 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.697$3,215Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:04 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.677$14.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:03 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.665$14.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:03 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.668$14.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:02 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.670$9,569Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 09:00 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.661$14.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:57 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.688$4,307Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:57 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.695$3,246Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:57 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.691$2,663Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:57 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.659$5,796Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:47 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.661$4,561Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:46 PMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.620$1,362Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 03:12 AMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.411$2,466— (SELL)
Jul 11, 09:50 PMWill England win on 2026-07-11?BUY YES0.500$2,502
Jul 11, 09:44 PMWill England win on 2026-07-11?BUY YES0.273$1,363Cheap band — no rep
Jul 9, 09:25 PMWill France win on 2026-07-09?BUY NO0.158$2,050Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 4, 12:31 AMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.524$5,000
Jul 1, 09:13 PMWill Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.998$50.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 01:33 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.530$1,060
Jun 26, 01:23 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-25?BUY NO0.520$2,600
Jun 21, 10:47 PMWill Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?BUY YES0.580$1,740
Jun 20, 08:34 PMWill Germany win on 2026-06-20?BUY NO0.620$2,480Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

10 markets · sorted by volume