thoodr

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x3eae…e2ed with our methodology badges per row.

0x3eae57986be5e0ca435102ffe1f14206ffa2e2ed·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

175

lifetime

PnL per $

-0%

historical realized

Win rate

98.2%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$855.1K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 175 resolved trades · -0% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$890.9K

avg $4,454 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$863.2K / $27.7K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 20, 04:13 PM	Romanian PM Bolojan out by July 31?	BUY NO	0.950	$9,592	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 03:57 PM	Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?	BUY NO	0.988	$7,815	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 03:53 PM	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?	BUY YES	0.990	$8,109	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 03:51 PM	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?	BUY YES	0.987	$5,578	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 03:42 PM	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.996	$4,980	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 03:24 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?	BUY NO	0.993	$3,178	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 03:23 PM	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,493	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 03:21 PM	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	BUY NO	0.900	$4,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 03:19 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.983	$2,458	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 12:27 PM	Trump out as President by July 31?	BUY NO	0.995	$2,488	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 07:54 AM	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY YES	0.999	$2,338	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 07:43 AM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,395	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 03:50 AM	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY NO	0.999	$44.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 03:49 AM	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY NO	0.999	$26.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 03:45 AM	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY NO	0.999	$20.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 03:43 AM	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY NO	0.999	$20.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 03:43 AM	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY YES	0.999	$2,117	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 03:39 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	BUY NO	0.972	$1,944	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 03:35 AM	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.994	$3,416	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 03:35 AM	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.994	$1,318	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 03:23 AM	Andrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,649	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 02:35 AM	Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	BUY YES	0.930	$7,440	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 02:25 AM	Will Trump meet with Joseph Aoun in July 2026?	BUY YES	0.995	$1,194	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 02:22 AM	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY YES	0.999	$15.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 02:14 AM	Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	BUY NO	0.920	$1,380	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 02:14 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.985	$4,925	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 02:12 AM	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY NO	0.999	$20.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 02:12 AM	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY NO	0.999	$9,095	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 02:03 AM	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?	BUY NO	0.993	$2,185	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 02:01 AM	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY YES	0.998	$7,026	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 02:01 AM	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY YES	0.997	$7,201	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 08:25 AM	World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	BUY NO	0.997	$7,975	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:47 AM	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	BUY NO	0.860	$2,580	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:43 AM	World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,791	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:42 AM	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	BUY NO	0.890	$1,246	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:13 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.730	$3,650	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:11 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	BUY NO	0.962	$11.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 09:10 AM	World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	BUY NO	0.996	$5,577	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 03:50 PM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	BUY NO	0.988	$9,531	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 03:50 PM	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	SELL YES	0.998	$12.1K	— (SELL)
Jul 17, 04:12 AM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	BUY NO	0.980	$1,711	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 02:15 AM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	BUY NO	0.983	$4,915	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 04:53 PM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	BUY NO	0.979	$1,954	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 04:49 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.770	$2,310	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 04:45 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.989	$4,945	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 04:44 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,395	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 04:44 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	BUY NO	0.978	$1,174	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 09:03 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.989	$4,945	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 09:03 AM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	BUY YES	0.935	$2,338	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 09:01 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	BUY NO	0.979	$7,832	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 09:00 AM	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY YES	0.991	$3,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 07:50 AM	Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.997	$2,672	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 06:51 AM	Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.994	$1,059	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 06:48 AM	Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.993	$1,167	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 06:48 AM	Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.990	$4,594	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 06:19 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	BUY NO	0.922	$3,504	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 06:19 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	BUY NO	0.977	$4,730	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 06:13 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.770	$3,850	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 05:56 AM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	BUY NO	0.958	$3,832	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 04:36 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	BUY NO	0.976	$1,802	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 04:30 AM	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY YES	0.988	$1,090	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 02:46 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,569	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 02:42 AM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	BUY NO	0.957	$1,914	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 02:37 AM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	BUY NO	0.953	$4,935	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 02:37 AM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	BUY NO	0.947	$1,273	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 02:36 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	SELL NO	0.999	$15.7K	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 06:52 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.995	$4,016	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 06:52 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.993	$3,533	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 02:40 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	BUY NO	0.971	$10.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 02:39 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.979	$3,237	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 02:31 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.971	$5,783	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:10 PM	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?	BUY YES	0.999	$2,813	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:10 PM	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	BUY YES	0.999	$2,275	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:07 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY NO	0.968	$1,874	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 03:02 PM	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY YES	0.985	$1,368	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 10:36 AM	Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?	BUY YES	0.889	$1,067	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 10:35 AM	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	BUY NO	0.900	$3,150	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 10:31 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.978	$2,934	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 09:42 AM	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.990	$1,426	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 08:57 AM	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.987	$1,384	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 08:38 AM	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.991	$2,724	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 08:38 AM	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.988	$5,662	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 08:06 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.830	$4,150	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 08:05 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,741	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 08:05 AM	World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	BUY NO	0.992	$1,570	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 02:04 AM	World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	BUY NO	0.991	$1,846	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 02:22 PM	World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken?	BUY NO	0.988	$6,113	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 02:14 PM	Will Julian Alvarez score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,243	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 02:12 PM	World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	BUY NO	0.994	$1,687	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 01:38 PM	Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup?	BUY NO	0.996	$4,048	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 01:14 PM	Yoon out of custody before 2027?	BUY NO	0.892	$1,163	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 01:12 PM	Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches?	BUY NO	0.934	$2,059	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 01:11 PM	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.981	$2,559	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 01:10 PM	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	BUY YES	0.940	$1,880	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 01:09 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.961	$1,702	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 01:08 PM	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY YES	0.986	$4,482	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 01:07 PM	World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,979	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 01:48 AM	World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	BUY NO	0.986	$2,541	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 06:30 AM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?	BUY NO	0.996	$2,988	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 06:30 AM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?	BUY NO	0.996	$4,980	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 02:30 AM	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	BUY YES	0.992	$5,685	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 02:30 AM	World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken?	BUY NO	0.950	$1,519	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 02:28 AM	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY YES	0.985	$5,939	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 02:27 AM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?	BUY NO	0.994	$6,481	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 04:33 PM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?	BUY NO	0.983	$7,906	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 09:44 AM	World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	BUY NO	0.983	$4,424	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 08:35 AM	Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.850	$1,275	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 07:57 AM	GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?	BUY YES	0.998	$5,591	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 07:56 AM	World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	BUY NO	0.983	$1,475	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 02:17 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.840	$4,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 02:14 AM	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?	BUY YES	0.988	$2,755	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 02:12 AM	GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?	BUY YES	0.990	$2,568	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 02:11 AM	GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?	BUY YES	0.986	$1,926	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 06:20 AM	World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	BUY NO	0.980	$1,048	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 02:06 AM	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	BUY YES	0.987	$1,219	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 02:06 AM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,424	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 10:03 AM	Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.898	$1,053	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 09:26 AM	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY YES	0.975	$2,865	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 07:35 AM	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	BUY YES	0.991	$2,258	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 06:58 AM	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY YES	0.968	$3,993	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 06:41 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.989	$2,534	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 06:39 AM	GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?	BUY NO	0.933	$1,152	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 02:56 AM	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.850	$2,125	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 02:40 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.988	$4,248	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 02:39 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 7?	BUY NO	0.998	$3,854	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 02:34 AM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,677	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 02:31 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY NO	0.989	$1,978	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 02:21 AM	World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	BUY NO	0.984	$17.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 02:16 AM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	BUY YES	0.940	$1,880	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 02:14 PM	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 6, 2026?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,114	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 02:08 PM	World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?	BUY YES	0.935	$1,191	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 02:02 PM	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.975	$1,008	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 01:58 PM	Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.984	$1,856	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 01:42 PM	World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?	BUY YES	0.959	$1,054	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 06:03 AM	World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken?	BUY NO	0.960	$2,501	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 05:54 AM	World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	BUY NO	0.981	$11.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 05:53 AM	World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	BUY NO	0.980	$8,017	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 05:51 AM	World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	BUY NO	0.979	$2,423	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 03:52 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 7?	BUY NO	0.996	$2,626	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 02:05 AM	GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?	BUY NO	0.997	$2,095	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 03:30 PM	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.989	$1,481	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 01:44 PM	GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?	BUY NO	0.995	$2,652	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 01:41 PM	GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?	BUY NO	0.993	$14.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 12:36 PM	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 10, 2026?	BUY NO	0.975	$7,795	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 10:49 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.979	$4,895	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 10:48 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 7?	BUY NO	0.995	$8,756	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 10:40 AM	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.990	$1,416	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 10:40 AM	Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.988	$1,725	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 10:39 AM	Will Jared Goff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY NO	0.986	$1,161	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 10:36 AM	Will Jared Goff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY NO	0.980	$1,239	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 10:34 AM	Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.988	$1,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 10:33 AM	Will Blake Lively attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY NO	0.990	$3,190	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 10:30 AM	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.988	$1,794	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 10:29 AM	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.987	$1,209	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 10:28 AM	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.984	$1,172	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 09:40 AM	GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?	BUY NO	0.993	$2,346	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 09:34 AM	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.830	$4,150	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 09:29 AM	Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.987	$1,421	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 09:28 AM	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.925	$2,124	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 09:27 AM	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.978	$3,426	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 03:32 PM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?	BUY NO	0.991	$1,890	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 12:13 PM	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.820	$8,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 12:12 PM	Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.962	$1,082	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 12:12 PM	Will Este Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.968	$1,005	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 12:11 PM	Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.979	$4,164	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 12:11 PM	Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.971	$1,802	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 12:11 PM	Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.986	$1,880	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 12:10 PM	Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.986	$2,807	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 01:42 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.870	$8,700	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 03:47 AM	Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?	BUY NO	0.999	$4,944	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 03:28 AM	0xa59aa5da	BUY NO	0.999	$1,002	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 02:50 AM	GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?	BUY NO	0.997	$7,401	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 02:17 AM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.890	$8,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 01:43 PM	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.890	$4,450	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 01:37 PM	Trump out as President before 2027?	BUY NO	0.920	$9,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 01:34 PM	Netanyahu out by July 31?	BUY NO	0.985	$1,182	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 01:33 PM	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	BUY NO	0.850	$6,493	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 01:32 PM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.890	$8,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 01:26 PM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	BUY NO	0.900	$4,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 01:26 PM	GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?	BUY NO	0.984	$3,144	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 01:23 PM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.890	$17.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 01:20 PM	Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?	BUY YES	0.990	$4,552	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 12:28 PM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	BUY YES	0.930	$2,790	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 12:27 PM	Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	BUY YES	0.996	$1,359	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 04:25 AM	Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?	BUY YES	0.996	$1,992	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 04:24 AM	Ekrem İmamoğlu released from custody in 2026?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,980	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 04:07 AM	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,940	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 04:03 AM	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY NO	0.988	$1,383	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 03:57 AM	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY YES	0.970	$3,976	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 03:57 AM	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY YES	0.960	$2,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 03:48 AM	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.840	$5,880	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 03:40 AM	Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,366	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 03:37 AM	Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.988	$1,703	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 03:37 AM	Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	BUY YES	0.990	$1,143	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 03:29 AM	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY NO	0.974	$2,083	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 03:24 AM	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.880	$8,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 03:19 AM	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.880	$8,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 03:13 AM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.880	$8,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 03:03 AM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	BUY NO	0.900	$9,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 02:52 AM	GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?	BUY NO	0.960	$1,920	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

78 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Other	4	$85.4K	+$85.4K
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	Other	15	$72.1K	+$72.1K
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Other	14	$64.1K	+$64.1K
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Other	3	$55.6K	+$55.6K
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	4	$44.4K	+$44.4K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	Other	7	$39.6K	+$39.6K
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	Tech	11	$37.2K	+$37.2K
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	Other	8	$30.1K	+$30.1K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Other	6	$26.9K	+$26.9K
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?	Tech	5	$23.2K	+$23.2K
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?	Other	4	$22.4K	+$22.4K
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Tech	3	$22.1K	+$22.1K
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Other	10	$21.2K	+$21.2K
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Other	4	$21.2K	$-2,891
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Tech	5	$19.1K	+$19.1K
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Other	3	$18.2K	+$18.2K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	Tech	1	$15.7K	$-15,684
Israel closes its airspace by July 7?	Tech	3	$15.2K	+$15.2K
Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Tech	8	$14.9K	+$14.9K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?	Other	2	$13.7K	+$13.7K
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Other	2	$13.5K	+$13.5K
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?	Tech	2	$10.5K	+$10.5K
Romanian PM Bolojan out by July 31?	Other	1	$9,592	+$9,592
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	1	$9,200	+$9,200
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Other	2	$9,073	+$9,073
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	3	$8,896	+$8,896
Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Tech	4	$8,319	+$8,319
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?	Politics	1	$7,815	+$7,815
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 10, 2026?	Tech	1	$7,795	+$7,795
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	Politics	1	$7,440	+$7,440

Showing top 30 by volume.