| Jun 12, 01:32 AM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | BUY YES | 0.850 | $15.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 06:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.320 | $1,600 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 03:28 PM | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.977 | $1,954 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 02:27 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $1,978 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 02:27 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $3,956 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 02:34 AM | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.800 | $5,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 08:11 PM | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $1,455 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 07:35 PM | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL YES | 0.218 | $2,616 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 05:15 PM | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL YES | 0.222 | $1,110 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 12:45 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.720 | $1,440 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 12:42 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.760 | $4,408 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 6, 10:46 PM | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.480 | $1,440 | —— |
| Jun 6, 01:37 AM | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.518 | $3,106 | —— |
| Jun 6, 12:57 AM | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.731 | $10.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 12:57 AM | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.750 | $42.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 11:08 PM | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.510 | $1,020 | —— |
| Jun 5, 06:01 PM | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.844 | $11.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 06:01 PM | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $1,729 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 05:03 PM | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.711 | $4,266 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 04:45 PM | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $2,850 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 03:33 PM | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.500 | $1,000 | —— |
| Jun 5, 02:55 PM | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $4,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 02:27 PM | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.699 | $6,292 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 01:59 PM | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.500 | $1,000 | —— |
| Jun 5, 11:21 AM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.630 | $1,890 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 04:30 PM | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.084 | $1,680 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 04:29 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.088 | $1,760 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 04:29 PM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.094 | $1,880 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 04:28 PM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.115 | $2,300 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 04:28 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $3,200 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 04:27 PM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.171 | $3,420 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 3, 01:01 PM | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.688 | $6,880 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 12:59 PM | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.688 | $6,880 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 01:56 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.964 | $9,640 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 03:23 PM | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.086 | $2,580 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 02:51 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.090 | $2,700 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 02:49 PM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.094 | $2,820 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 02:49 PM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.112 | $3,360 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 02:49 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.168 | $5,040 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 02:47 PM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.171 | $5,130 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 02:42 PM | Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.977 | $19.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 02:41 PM | Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.973 | $9,730 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 12:23 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.900 | $4,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 02:12 AM | Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.770 | $2,310 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 03:30 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.620 | $1,240 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 08:07 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $3,680 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 05:31 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY YES | 0.557 | $1,113 | —— |
| May 27, 05:24 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.969 | $4,846 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 03:24 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $6,580 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 03:04 PM | Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.976 | $1,952 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 02:18 AM | Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $1,685 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 12:01 AM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.710 | $3,550 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 01:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.280 | $2,800 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 25, 11:19 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? | SELL NO | 0.960 | $1,920 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 03:41 PM | Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.680 | $1,588 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 06:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $1,300 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 12:40 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $30.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 10:41 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | SELL YES | 0.900 | $2,700 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 08:25 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $9,990 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 04:57 PM | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL YES | 0.570 | $8,550 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 03:56 PM | World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? | BUY YES | 0.761 | $1,521 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 02:17 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $4,550 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 02:31 AM | US recession by end of 2026? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $2,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 04:46 PM | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.937 | $1,874 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 04:43 PM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $2,760 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 04:14 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.978 | $14.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 12:43 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $1,940 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 09:48 PM | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $5,789 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 06:56 PM | Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? | BUY YES | 0.250 | $2,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 19, 05:50 PM | Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL YES | 0.130 | $1,300 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 02:33 PM | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | SELL NO | 0.985 | $2,857 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 02:32 PM | Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | SELL NO | 0.987 | $2,862 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 02:30 PM | Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | SELL NO | 0.987 | $5,429 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 07:14 PM | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? | SELL YES | 0.860 | $6,020 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 06:02 PM | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? | BUY YES | 0.890 | $7,120 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 06:01 PM | Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL YES | 0.170 | $1,700 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 07:42 PM | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $3,284 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 05:02 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.980 | $47.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 03:44 PM | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $1,920 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 03:38 PM | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.973 | $3,405 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 03:37 PM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.954 | $3,339 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 12:42 PM | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.982 | $1,964 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 12:38 PM | Xi Jinping out by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $1,777 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 12:34 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.976 | $2,440 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 03:19 AM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $9,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 03:59 PM | Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? | SELL NO | 0.210 | $1,470 | — (SELL) |
| May 13, 03:36 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $7,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 10:43 PM | Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.900 | $1,269 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 10:40 PM | Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.700 | $2,093 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 07:23 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.232 | $2,320 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 12, 05:41 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.281 | $1,403 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 12, 03:54 PM | Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | BUY YES | 0.986 | $11.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 03:34 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.630 | $3,150 | — (SELL) |
| May 12, 02:55 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $7,520 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 02:03 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.340 | $6,800 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 12, 01:31 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $9,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 08:12 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $7,520 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 08:11 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.285 | $2,847 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 11, 08:06 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $19.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 07:45 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $3,650 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 07:32 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.473 | $1,419 | —— |
| May 11, 07:22 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $8,800 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 07:21 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.257 | $2,575 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 11, 07:09 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.470 | $1,409 | —— |
| May 10, 08:15 PM | Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.620 | $4,960 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 04:45 PM | Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $4,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 04:34 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.440 | $2,200 | —— |
| May 10, 11:06 AM | Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.995 | $1,873 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 11:04 AM | Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $3,795 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 01:42 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $9,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 09:15 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $3,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 5, 09:14 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $5,570 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 09:01 PM | Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL YES | 0.085 | $1,275 | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 06:57 PM | SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.940 | $8,392 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 06:55 PM | Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? | BUY YES | 0.930 | $2,176 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 06:53 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | BUY YES | 0.910 | $4,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 12:46 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $28.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 2, 11:09 PM | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | BUY NO | 0.667 | $1,669 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 2, 10:59 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | BUY YES | 0.820 | $1,476 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 05:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.921 | $1,842 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 04:22 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.536 | $1,071 | —— |
| Apr 30, 03:38 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $19.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 01:50 PM | Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY NO | 0.971 | $9,712 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 01:45 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $14.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 01:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $20.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 01:36 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.960 | $13.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 05:41 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.998 | $199.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 12:09 AM | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $2,231 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 27, 07:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.985 | $29.6K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 27, 06:01 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.620 | $1,860 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 01:19 PM | Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | BUY YES | 0.989 | $2,967 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 26, 03:02 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $3,350 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 26, 03:00 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | BUY YES | 0.380 | $1,808 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 25, 01:54 AM | Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $49.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 23, 12:44 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $35.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 23, 12:39 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.990 | $19.8K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 11:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.838 | $10.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 11:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.838 | $10.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 11:18 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.936 | $22.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 11:18 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.936 | $22.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 11:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.658 | $17.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 11:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.658 | $17.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 07:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $1,580 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 07:32 PM | Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-21? | BUY NO | 0.310 | $4,188 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 21, 02:36 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.600 | $6,720 | —— |
| Apr 21, 02:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $4,450 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 01:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.700 | $9,793 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 01:52 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $4,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 01:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.690 | $1,932 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 01:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.694 | $9,791 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 01:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $4,350 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 01:07 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.602 | $6,019 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 01:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $4,350 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 12:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $3,100 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 12:36 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.689 | $6,893 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 01:48 AM | Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $9,069 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 01:46 AM | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY YES | 0.944 | $18.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 01:19 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.370 | $1,110 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 21, 01:18 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $1,890 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 01:10 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.705 | $2,116 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 01:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.611 | $1,832 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 01:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $1,169 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 20, 09:03 PM | Will Keldon Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year? | BUY YES | 0.899 | $4,495 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 20, 09:02 PM | Will Keldon Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year? | BUY YES | 0.899 | $8,990 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 08:45 PM | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.128 | $1,280 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 19, 07:35 PM | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.481 | $14.4K | —— |
| Apr 19, 06:43 PM | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.146 | $4,380 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 19, 06:42 PM | Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.100 | $5,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 19, 04:41 PM | 0x46fe7c44 | BUY NO | 0.560 | $3,316 | —— |
| Apr 19, 04:39 PM | 0x6e90f31e | SELL YES | 0.181 | $2,719 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 19, 01:38 PM | 0xcc02ec80 | BUY NO | 0.370 | $1,997 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 19, 01:08 PM | 0x6e90f31e | BUY YES | 0.240 | $4,222 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 18, 07:50 PM | 0xf78d5487 | BUY NO | 0.470 | $1,834 | —— |
| Apr 17, 09:50 PM | 0x8d630b5a | BUY NO | 0.910 | $1,815 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 16, 06:37 PM | Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY YES | 0.419 | $10.5K | —— |
| Apr 16, 06:27 PM | Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.058 | $1,156 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 16, 06:21 PM | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.129 | $2,575 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 16, 06:19 PM | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.153 | $3,064 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 16, 06:18 PM | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.448 | $8,954 | —— |
| Apr 15, 05:54 PM | 0xc3bda72b | BUY NO | 0.850 | $5,077 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 01:33 PM | Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? | BUY NO | 0.905 | $1,065 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 01:24 PM | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY YES | 0.265 | $2,649 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 14, 09:01 PM | 0x368d8be5 | SELL YES | 0.990 | $3,960 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 14, 08:50 PM | 0xaea9c4c8 | SELL NO | 0.970 | $4,848 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 14, 05:19 PM | 0x368d8be5 | BUY YES | 0.550 | $2,713 | —— |
| Apr 14, 05:16 PM | 0xaea9c4c8 | BUY NO | 0.600 | $4,742 | —— |
| Apr 11, 10:35 PM | Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $199.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 03:57 PM | 0x272251c9 | BUY YES | 0.740 | $2,937 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 03:08 PM | Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY YES | 0.310 | $4,650 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 11, 02:59 PM | Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | BUY YES | 0.993 | $8,933 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 11:39 PM | Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY NO | 0.983 | $2,844 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 11:31 PM | Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? | BUY YES | 0.930 | $6,122 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 08:43 PM | 0x04a2b19c | BUY YES | 0.979 | $14.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 08:37 PM | 0x04a2b19c | BUY YES | 0.960 | $9,593 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 08:13 PM | 0x04a2b19c | SELL NO | 0.380 | $1,520 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 06:22 PM | 0x04a2b19c | BUY NO | 0.830 | $7,927 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 03:45 PM | 0x1c16b60c | BUY YES | 0.530 | $3,658 | —— |
| Apr 7, 05:02 PM | 0xb3579280 | BUY NO | 0.780 | $4,649 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 03:08 PM | Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY YES | 0.070 | $4,200 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 6, 03:07 PM | Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY YES | 0.037 | $1,859 | —— |