TheReturnOfDarthMaul

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x3a8a…7699 with our methodology badges per row.

0x3a8aa345d5db7ec5138298c8c4f4540259be7699·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

114

lifetime

PnL per $

-38%

historical realized

Win rate

54.7%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$983.8K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 114 resolved trades · -38% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$1.85M

avg $9,263 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$1.72M / $131.5K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 20, 03:37 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.395	$2,566	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 19, 11:44 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.376	$1,882	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 19, 11:00 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.375	$1,875	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 18, 05:37 PM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.964	$24.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 03:01 PM	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.961	$9,610	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 07:35 PM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.963	$11.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 07:34 PM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.962	$8,145	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 05:46 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.350	$1,050	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 17, 05:24 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.336	$1,175	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 17, 05:07 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.048	$2,419	—
Jul 17, 03:38 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.038	$1,895	—
Jul 17, 01:48 PM	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.959	$1,615	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 01:46 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.309	$3,094	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 16, 01:31 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.300	$2,100	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 16, 01:31 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.300	$2,250	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 13, 08:32 PM	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?	BUY NO	0.746	$1,558	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 06:14 PM	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY YES	0.810	$89.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:26 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.290	$1,160	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 13, 04:26 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.290	$3,187	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 13, 04:26 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.290	$2,320	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 13, 03:13 PM	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY YES	0.799	$16.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 02:25 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.270	$2,970	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 13, 02:25 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.259	$3,884	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 13, 02:23 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.250	$6,750	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 13, 02:17 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.248	$4,721	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 10, 09:12 PM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.148	$11.8K	— (SELL)
Jul 10, 09:08 PM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.060	$4,800	— (SELL)
Jul 10, 09:04 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.210	$12.5K	— (SELL)
Jul 10, 04:37 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.194	$2,720	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 10, 04:15 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.180	$2,700	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 10, 04:15 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.180	$1,800	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 10, 04:15 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.171	$1,708	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 10, 04:15 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.180	$1,260	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 9, 07:43 PM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.962	$19.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 04:33 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.150	$2,400	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 9, 04:10 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.159	$2,698	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 8, 09:13 PM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.962	$96.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 04:39 PM	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY YES	0.800	$45.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 04:39 PM	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY YES	0.789	$22.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 07:19 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.170	$5,108	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 07:15 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.174	$13.9K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 06:50 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.160	$3,065	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 06:49 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.160	$12.8K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 06:21 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.157	$4,720	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 6, 09:17 PM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.953	$95.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 09:14 PM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.949	$28.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 02:40 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.125	$25.0K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 6, 11:40 AM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.105	$4,704	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 6, 11:22 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.110	$10.3K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 6, 11:22 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.110	$19.4K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 3, 04:28 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.100	$11.4K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 3, 04:28 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.100	$38.6K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 2, 05:38 PM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.961	$42.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 04:42 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL NO	0.110	$11.0K	— (SELL)
Jul 2, 04:42 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.120	$3,600	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 2, 01:33 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL NO	0.120	$6,000	— (SELL)
Jul 2, 01:10 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL NO	0.130	$6,500	— (SELL)
Jul 2, 01:08 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL NO	0.130	$3,900	— (SELL)
Jul 2, 12:45 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL NO	0.123	$9,807	— (SELL)
Jul 2, 12:44 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL NO	0.130	$2,600	— (SELL)
Jul 1, 01:11 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.196	$9,784	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 1, 01:06 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.220	$36.3K	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 1, 01:06 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.216	$7,552	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 1, 01:05 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.210	$2,100	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 1, 12:59 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.210	$10.5K	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 1, 12:45 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.189	$1,890	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 30, 09:23 PM	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.985	$1,801	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 05:51 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.185	$1,848	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 30, 04:47 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.200	$2,000	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 30, 04:47 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.200	$4,000	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 30, 03:14 PM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.988	$29.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 03:12 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.200	$4,000	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 30, 02:52 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.180	$5,398	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 30, 02:03 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.200	$2,000	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 30, 12:19 AM	Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.961	$3,844	— (SELL)
Jun 29, 05:55 PM	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY NO	0.780	$4,680	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 04:07 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.190	$3,800	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 29, 03:32 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.190	$9,500	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 29, 12:49 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.190	$20.9K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 29, 12:45 AM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.173	$39.8K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 26, 06:53 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.181	$18.1K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 26, 05:45 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.190	$7,600	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 26, 04:57 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.190	$1,577	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 26, 02:53 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.175	$2,450	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 26, 01:12 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.174	$4,875	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 26, 01:10 AM	Fed rate hike in 2026?	BUY YES	0.530	$1,060	—
Jun 26, 12:13 AM	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY YES	0.800	$14.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 08:14 PM	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?	BUY NO	0.710	$1,420	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 08:13 PM	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,745	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 06:06 PM	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY YES	0.799	$14.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 01:30 PM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.987	$88.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 03:11 PM	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	BUY YES	0.570	$5,700	—
Jun 24, 03:10 PM	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	BUY YES	0.920	$1,765	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 01:14 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.240	$2,403	— (SELL)
Jun 24, 12:40 PM	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY YES	0.767	$14.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 03:30 PM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.986	$98.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 01:23 PM	Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.975	$2,021	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:10 PM	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	BUY NO	0.870	$3,480	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 08:15 PM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.987	$9,870	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 07:50 PM	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY YES	0.803	$1,606	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 03:50 PM	Fed rate hike in 2026?	BUY YES	0.580	$4,060	—
Jun 22, 01:07 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.246	$4,169	— (SELL)
Jun 22, 01:02 PM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.985	$49.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 02:44 AM	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	BUY NO	0.940	$1,317	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 08:56 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.174	$1,740	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 01:32 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	BUY YES	0.850	$15.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:16 PM	0x6114a8a3	SELL YES	0.320	$1,600	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 03:28 PM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.977	$1,954	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 02:27 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.989	$1,978	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 02:27 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.989	$3,956	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 02:34 AM	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY YES	0.800	$5,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 08:11 PM	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,455	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 07:35 PM	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL YES	0.218	$2,616	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 05:15 PM	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL YES	0.222	$1,110	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 12:45 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	SELL YES	0.720	$1,440	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 12:42 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	SELL YES	0.760	$4,408	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 10:46 PM	Fed rate hike in 2026?	BUY YES	0.480	$1,440	—
Jun 6, 01:37 AM	Fed rate hike in 2026?	BUY YES	0.518	$3,106	—
Jun 6, 12:57 AM	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY YES	0.731	$10.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 12:57 AM	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY YES	0.750	$42.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 11:08 PM	Fed rate hike in 2026?	BUY YES	0.510	$1,020	—
Jun 5, 06:01 PM	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	BUY NO	0.844	$11.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 06:01 PM	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	BUY NO	0.850	$1,729	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 05:03 PM	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY YES	0.711	$4,266	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 04:45 PM	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.950	$2,850	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 03:33 PM	Fed rate hike in 2026?	BUY YES	0.500	$1,000	—
Jun 5, 02:55 PM	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.940	$4,700	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 02:27 PM	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY YES	0.699	$6,292	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 01:59 PM	Fed rate hike in 2026?	BUY YES	0.500	$1,000	—
Jun 5, 11:21 AM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.630	$1,890	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:30 PM	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.084	$1,680	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 04:29 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.088	$1,760	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 04:29 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.094	$1,880	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 04:28 PM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.115	$2,300	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 04:28 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.160	$3,200	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 04:27 PM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.171	$3,420	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 01:01 PM	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY YES	0.688	$6,880	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 12:59 PM	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY YES	0.688	$6,880	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 01:56 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.964	$9,640	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 03:23 PM	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.086	$2,580	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 1, 02:51 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.090	$2,700	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 1, 02:49 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.094	$2,820	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 1, 02:49 PM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.112	$3,360	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 1, 02:49 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.168	$5,040	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 1, 02:47 PM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.171	$5,130	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 1, 02:42 PM	Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.977	$19.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:41 PM	Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.973	$9,730	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 12:23 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.900	$4,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 02:12 AM	0xc00920db	BUY YES	0.770	$2,310	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:30 PM	0x8b369e10	SELL YES	0.620	$1,240	— (SELL)
May 27, 08:07 PM	0xb2e7dd21	BUY NO	0.920	$3,680	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 05:31 PM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	BUY YES	0.557	$1,113	—
May 27, 05:24 PM	0xbfca16aa	BUY NO	0.969	$4,846	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 03:24 PM	0xbfca16aa	BUY NO	0.940	$6,580	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 03:04 PM	Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.976	$1,952	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 02:18 AM	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.690	$1,685	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 12:01 AM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.710	$3,550	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 01:03 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.280	$2,800	Cheap band — no rep
May 25, 11:19 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	SELL NO	0.960	$1,920	— (SELL)
May 25, 03:41 PM	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.680	$1,588	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 06:14 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	BUY YES	0.130	$1,300	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 23, 12:40 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	BUY YES	0.999	$30.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 10:41 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	SELL YES	0.900	$2,700	— (SELL)
May 22, 08:25 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	BUY YES	0.999	$9,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 04:57 PM	0x6e9f90a6	SELL YES	0.570	$8,550	— (SELL)
May 22, 03:56 PM	World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	BUY YES	0.761	$1,521	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 02:17 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$4,550	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 02:31 AM	US recession by end of 2026?	BUY NO	0.800	$2,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:46 PM	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	BUY NO	0.937	$1,874	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:43 PM	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.920	$2,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:14 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.978	$14.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 12:43 PM	0x098afead	BUY NO	0.970	$1,940	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 09:48 PM	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	BUY NO	0.830	$5,789	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 06:56 PM	0x2f606126	BUY YES	0.250	$2,000	Cheap band — no rep
May 19, 05:50 PM	0xfb1835b8	SELL YES	0.130	$1,300	— (SELL)
May 19, 02:33 PM	0xaa145cf5	SELL NO	0.985	$2,857	— (SELL)
May 19, 02:32 PM	0x5341e90b	SELL NO	0.987	$2,862	— (SELL)
May 19, 02:30 PM	0x7f4378c2	SELL NO	0.987	$5,429	— (SELL)
May 18, 07:14 PM	0x95819f16	SELL YES	0.860	$6,020	— (SELL)
May 18, 06:02 PM	0x95819f16	BUY YES	0.890	$7,120	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 06:01 PM	0xfb1835b8	SELL YES	0.170	$1,700	— (SELL)
May 17, 07:42 PM	Fed rate hike in 2026?	BUY NO	0.690	$3,284	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 05:02 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.980	$47.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 03:44 PM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.960	$1,920	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 03:38 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.973	$3,405	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 03:37 PM	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.954	$3,339	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 12:42 PM	Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	BUY NO	0.982	$1,964	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 12:38 PM	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.987	$1,777	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 12:34 PM	0xb24aa722	BUY NO	0.976	$2,440	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 03:19 AM	0xcddc048c	BUY NO	0.990	$9,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 03:59 PM	0xde8667d0	SELL NO	0.210	$1,470	— (SELL)
May 13, 03:36 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	BUY NO	0.900	$7,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 10:43 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.900	$1,269	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 10:40 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.700	$2,093	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 07:23 PM	0x8b369e10	BUY YES	0.232	$2,320	Cheap band — no rep
May 12, 05:41 PM	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	BUY YES	0.281	$1,403	Cheap band — no rep
May 12, 03:54 PM	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	BUY YES	0.986	$11.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 03:34 PM	0xb7dd41c1	SELL NO	0.630	$3,150	— (SELL)
May 12, 02:55 PM	0xbcacd5a0	BUY NO	0.940	$7,520	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 02:03 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY YES	0.340	$6,800	Killed band — neutral expectation

Markets active in

75 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Finance	8	$326.4K	+$326.4K
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Finance	15	$300.2K	+$300.2K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Finance	38	$295.6K	+$215.9K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Finance	6	$278.8K	+$278.8K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Finance	20	$145.7K	+$129.1K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Finance	2	$62.2K	+$62.2K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	Other	2	$40.0K	+$40.0K
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	3	$25.3K	+$17.6K
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Tech	3	$20.8K	$-4,296
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	3	$17.5K	$-6,180
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Finance	3	$17.0K	+$17.0K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Finance	8	$16.0K	+$16.0K
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Finance	8	$16.0K	+$16.0K
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	Tech	1	$15.7K	+$15.7K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Tech	3	$15.6K	+$15.6K
0x95819f16	—	2	$13.1K	+$1,100
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Sports	1	$11.8K	+$11.8K
0xbfca16aa	—	2	$11.4K	+$11.4K
0xc4c3dbcc	—	4	$11.3K	$-408
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Finance	2	$11.2K	+$11.2K
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Finance	4	$10.8K	+$10.8K
0xcddc048c	—	1	$9,900	+$9,900
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	1	$9,730	+$9,730
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	2	$8,550	+$8,550
0x6e9f90a6	—	1	$8,550	$-8,550
0xbcacd5a0	—	1	$7,520	+$7,520
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Other	1	$7,200	+$7,200
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Tech	1	$6,800	+$6,800
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Other	1	$5,789	+$5,789
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Other	1	$5,700	+$5,700

Showing top 30 by volume.