generalVR

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x2d61…1fa7 with our methodology badges per row.

0x2d613c30614b68eada0a37d65bddf3778d981fa7·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-28%

historical realized

Win rate

64.3%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$115.1K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 33 resolved trades · -28% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$224.4K

avg $3,033 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$155.0K / $69.4K

net direction

Recent trades

last 74 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 19, 07:26 PM	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.925	$1,850	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 07:24 PM	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.920	$4,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 08:55 AM	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.930	$13.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 08:25 AM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?	SELL NO	0.912	$1,824	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 10:49 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	SELL NO	0.998	$4,491	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 10:48 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL NO	0.987	$7,156	— (SELL)
Jul 12, 08:05 AM	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	BUY NO	0.936	$4,680	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 06:42 PM	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	BUY YES	0.909	$1,908	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 06:42 PM	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	BUY NO	0.926	$3,590	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 06:06 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL NO	0.950	$3,325	— (SELL)
Jul 4, 10:41 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	BUY NO	0.200	$3,000	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 2, 06:43 PM	World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	BUY NO	0.970	$4,325	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 04:54 PM	Will New Zealand win?	BUY YES	0.820	$1,663	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 03:00 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.989	$17.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 23, 07:49 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	BUY YES	0.140	$1,113	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 20, 09:12 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.930	$5,586	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 08:53 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	BUY NO	0.870	$4,350	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 08:45 PM	Starmer out by August 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.979	$3,548	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 05:15 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.830	$2,490	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:56 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	SELL NO	0.900	$3,600	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 01:45 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL NO	0.840	$1,260	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 11:01 AM	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	BUY NO	0.681	$1,022	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 10:37 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.780	$1,560	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 09:51 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.790	$1,069	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 09:21 AM	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	BUY YES	0.588	$1,790	—
Jun 11, 08:32 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?	BUY NO	0.959	$1,653	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 08:13 PM	0xa976dcc2	BUY NO	0.943	$7,604	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 05:27 PM	0x366f8964	BUY NO	0.998	$2,994	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 08:34 PM	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	BUY NO	0.760	$1,140	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 08:32 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.982	$2,946	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 08:32 PM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.980	$1,960	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 10:00 AM	Will England win?	BUY YES	0.800	$1,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 07:57 AM	Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	SELL NO	0.960	$2,976	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 07:55 AM	Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	BUY NO	0.966	$3,863	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 07:09 AM	0x6114a8a3	BUY NO	0.780	$1,092	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 10:03 PM	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.994	$2,982	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 04:56 PM	0x366f8964	BUY NO	0.890	$1,780	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:34 PM	Canada recession before 2027?	BUY YES	0.900	$3,406	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 09:34 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.975	$2,925	— (SELL)
May 26, 05:37 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.973	$5,955	— (SELL)
May 26, 12:54 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.982	$1,979	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:45 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.979	$1,111	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 11:04 PM	0xa743ce4a	BUY NO	0.929	$1,267	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 11:01 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	BUY NO	0.929	$1,070	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 10:58 PM	0xa743ce4a	BUY NO	0.952	$1,664	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 10:58 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	BUY NO	0.949	$1,922	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 10:57 PM	0x92485347	BUY NO	0.910	$2,759	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 10:29 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.972	$3,049	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 09:52 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	BUY YES	0.865	$2,595	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 09:31 AM	Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	BUY NO	0.960	$2,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 05:29 PM	0xd5e92e7b	SELL NO	0.972	$1,847	— (SELL)
May 24, 11:06 AM	0xd5e92e7b	BUY NO	0.947	$1,530	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 11:05 AM	0xd5e92e7b	BUY NO	0.942	$4,204	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 10:36 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.820	$3,280	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:12 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.823	$1,646	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 08:54 PM	Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?	BUY NO	0.857	$1,212	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 08:44 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.860	$3,440	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 08:36 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	BUY YES	0.897	$1,288	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 08:13 AM	0x4ba34832	BUY NO	0.690	$1,035	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 09:38 PM	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by June 5?	BUY YES	0.980	$1,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 09:37 PM	0x69487ec6	SELL NO	0.905	$1,979	— (SELL)
May 16, 08:21 AM	0x5ce3e24d	BUY NO	0.837	$1,197	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 09:34 PM	0xc1a0a91f	SELL NO	0.999	$10.7K	— (SELL)
May 15, 02:16 PM	0xc1a0a91f	BUY NO	0.945	$5,821	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 11:37 AM	0xc1a0a91f	BUY NO	0.940	$1,550	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 04:53 PM	Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	BUY NO	0.940	$1,093	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 12:03 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.508	$1,166	—
May 14, 08:05 AM	0xe0b6f4d4	BUY NO	0.770	$1,540	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 07:51 PM	0x69487ec6	BUY NO	0.860	$2,686	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 12:43 PM	0x998fb09e	SELL YES	0.985	$3,449	— (SELL)
May 11, 10:22 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.860	$2,580	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 04:12 AM	UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown?	BUY YES	0.980	$1,068	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 06:02 AM	0x2bf8ed26	BUY NO	0.950	$1,154	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 05:50 PM	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.487	$1,219	—

Markets active in

46 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Tech	6	$29.9K	$-8,456
0xc1a0a91f	—	3	$18.1K	$-3,332
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Tech	5	$14.0K	+$14.0K
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	1	$13.9K	+$13.9K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Other	4	$12.0K	$-5,790
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Tech	2	$10.5K	$-10,481
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	Politics	2	$8,270	+$8,270
0xa976dcc2	—	1	$7,604	+$7,604
0xd5e92e7b	—	3	$7,582	+$3,888
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Tech	2	$6,839	+$887
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	2	$6,450	+$6,450
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Tech	2	$5,463	+$5,463
0x366f8964	—	2	$4,774	+$4,774
0x69487ec6	—	2	$4,664	+$707
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Other	2	$4,517	+$4,517
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Tech	1	$4,491	$-4,491
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	Other	1	$4,325	+$4,325
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Tech	2	$4,288	+$4,288
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Other	1	$3,600	$-3,600
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?	Other	1	$3,548	+$3,548
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Other	2	$3,493	+$3,493
0x998fb09e	—	1	$3,449	$-3,449
Canada recession before 2027?	Finance	1	$3,406	+$3,406
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?	Other	1	$2,982	+$2,982
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Other	1	$2,946	+$2,946
0xa743ce4a	—	2	$2,931	+$2,931
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Other	2	$2,812	+$2,812
0x92485347	—	1	$2,759	+$2,759
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Other	1	$1,960	+$1,960
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Politics	1	$1,908	+$1,908

Showing top 30 by volume.