flawfence

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x23d8…0288 with our methodology badges per row.

0x23d81ba9371e576015c1e562db09c689f56b0288·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

+20%

historical realized

Win rate

77.2%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$175.3K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✓ passes

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. This wallet clears the bar — its BUYs in 0.20–0.30 trigger our high-conviction tier.

Trades (90d)

139

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$745.2K

avg $5,361 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$593.7K / $151.6K

net direction

Recent trades

last 139 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 20, 05:58 PM	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	BUY NO	0.729	$3,692	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 02:30 PM	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	BUY NO	0.600	$1,051	—
Jul 20, 01:19 PM	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	BUY NO	0.463	$2,140	—
Jul 19, 11:19 PM	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	BUY YES	0.415	$3,909	—
Jul 19, 02:15 AM	Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?	BUY NO	0.984	$2,167	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 02:10 AM	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	BUY YES	0.382	$3,112	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 18, 02:07 PM	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?	BUY NO	0.971	$13.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 11:29 AM	Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	BUY NO	0.877	$2,462	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 04:54 PM	Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?	BUY NO	0.975	$1,370	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 06:25 PM	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	BUY NO	0.819	$1,434	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 01:23 AM	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	BUY NO	0.610	$1,707	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 12:03 AM	Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	BUY NO	0.570	$2,861	—
Jul 16, 12:02 AM	Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	BUY YES	0.570	$2,768	—
Jul 14, 03:43 PM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.611	$71.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 12:58 AM	Will the final be FRA vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.720	$3,158	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 12:58 AM	Will the final be FRA vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.660	$1,238	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 06:16 PM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.223	$2,538	Conviction tier
Jul 13, 05:39 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.210	$3,700	Conviction tier
Jul 13, 01:44 AM	Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	BUY NO	0.375	$3,839	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 13, 01:43 AM	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	BUY YES	0.300	$2,677	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 8, 12:19 AM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.060	$1,254	— (SELL)
Jul 7, 10:56 PM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.059	$1,754	— (SELL)
Jul 5, 05:59 PM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.019	$3,967	—
Jul 5, 05:45 PM	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	BUY YES	0.299	$1,037	Conviction tier
Jul 1, 06:53 AM	Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?	BUY YES	0.470	$1,104	—
Jul 1, 06:14 AM	Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?	BUY NO	0.650	$2,070	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 05:58 AM	Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?	BUY YES	0.750	$5,157	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 04:03 AM	Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?	BUY NO	0.959	$1,976	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 01:14 AM	Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	BUY YES	0.759	$2,810	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 07:45 PM	Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	BUY YES	0.390	$1,110	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 30, 07:14 PM	Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	BUY YES	0.378	$1,909	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 30, 02:16 PM	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	BUY YES	0.427	$1,075	—
Jun 25, 12:47 AM	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	BUY NO	0.400	$1,965	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 25, 12:44 AM	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	BUY YES	0.318	$1,310	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 25, 12:44 AM	Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	BUY YES	0.049	$3,864	—
Jun 25, 12:39 AM	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	BUY NO	0.396	$14.3K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 25, 12:24 AM	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	BUY NO	0.375	$5,995	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 25, 12:23 AM	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	BUY NO	0.360	$1,203	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 24, 10:59 PM	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY YES	0.650	$32.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 02:19 PM	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	BUY NO	0.359	$10.2K	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 21, 09:47 PM	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.980	$14.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 07:51 PM	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.780	$8,703	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 06:15 PM	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.780	$2,128	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 06:06 PM	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.770	$1,495	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 02:50 PM	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	SELL YES	0.860	$2,365	— (SELL)
Jun 21, 02:50 PM	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	SELL NO	0.860	$3,213	— (SELL)
Jun 21, 02:14 PM	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	SELL YES	0.880	$1,533	— (SELL)
Jun 20, 07:41 PM	Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?	BUY NO	0.440	$2,233	—
Jun 13, 01:40 AM	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.014	$9,287	—
Jun 10, 10:45 AM	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?	SELL NO	0.685	$1,363	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 10:41 AM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.940	$72.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:34 AM	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?	BUY NO	0.680	$5,131	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:32 AM	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?	BUY YES	0.319	$1,983	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 9, 11:33 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.900	$17.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 07:55 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.940	$14.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 05:06 AM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.710	$16.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:55 AM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.720	$35.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:15 AM	0x2cd24d17	SELL YES	0.361	$5,421	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 04:13 AM	0xc4c3dbcc	SELL NO	0.385	$3,841	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 04:12 AM	0xc4c3dbcc	SELL NO	0.410	$1,435	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 02:46 AM	0x2cd24d17	SELL YES	0.655	$4,623	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 02:40 AM	0x2cd24d17	SELL YES	0.670	$6,030	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 02:08 AM	0x2cd24d17	BUY YES	0.540	$1,650	—
Jun 8, 02:07 AM	0x2cd24d17	BUY YES	0.494	$5,434	—
Jun 8, 01:05 AM	0xc4c3dbcc	SELL NO	0.290	$1,195	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 06:39 PM	0x010310d0	BUY YES	0.300	$1,345	Conviction tier
Jun 7, 03:32 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.670	$4,749	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 12:35 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY NO	0.340	$1,665	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 7, 12:34 PM	0x2cd24d17	BUY YES	0.337	$7,731	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 7, 11:17 AM	0xc4c3dbcc	SELL YES	0.670	$5,111	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 09:04 PM	0x9af5f845	BUY YES	0.350	$2,100	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 08:00 PM	0x1b1a75d6	BUY NO	0.670	$1,713	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 07:52 PM	0x1b1a75d6	BUY NO	0.520	$2,613	—
Jun 3, 07:52 PM	0xc587bda9	BUY YES	0.562	$2,016	—
Jun 3, 07:42 PM	0xc587bda9	BUY YES	0.500	$2,298	—
Jun 3, 07:33 PM	0x1b1a75d6	BUY YES	0.550	$2,523	—
Jun 3, 07:27 PM	0x1b1a75d6	BUY NO	0.308	$5,575	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 07:22 PM	0x1b1a75d6	BUY YES	0.710	$5,538	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 07:21 PM	0xc587bda9	SELL YES	0.278	$5,594	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 07:16 PM	0xc587bda9	SELL YES	0.261	$7,320	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 07:14 PM	0xc587bda9	SELL YES	0.266	$2,660	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 07:14 PM	0xc587bda9	SELL YES	0.266	$4,036	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 07:07 PM	0xc587bda9	SELL YES	0.430	$6,020	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 06:54 PM	0x1b1a75d6	BUY YES	0.300	$5,951	Conviction tier
Jun 3, 06:45 PM	0xc587bda9	SELL YES	0.501	$19.5K	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 04:14 PM	0xfbae01b3	BUY YES	0.230	$2,299	Conviction tier
Jun 3, 03:04 PM	0xfbae01b3	BUY YES	0.450	$1,350	—
Jun 3, 02:51 PM	0xfbae01b3	BUY YES	0.380	$3,385	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 02:50 PM	0x11fb30d1	BUY NO	0.410	$13.3K	—
Jun 3, 02:50 PM	0xfbae01b3	BUY YES	0.349	$4,968	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 02:42 PM	0x11fb30d1	BUY YES	0.730	$2,555	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 02:32 PM	0xfbae01b3	BUY NO	0.750	$2,284	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 02:19 PM	0xfbae01b3	BUY NO	0.848	$2,112	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 02:19 PM	0x11fb30d1	BUY YES	0.855	$1,768	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 02:16 PM	0x9f8ef513	BUY YES	0.708	$8,485	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 01:58 PM	0xebf57e5d	BUY NO	0.728	$2,785	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 01:58 PM	0x9f8ef513	BUY YES	0.721	$3,199	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 01:45 PM	0x9f8ef513	BUY YES	0.670	$1,597	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 01:43 PM	0x9f8ef513	BUY YES	0.667	$2,532	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 01:36 PM	0xebf57e5d	BUY NO	0.663	$1,827	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 01:36 PM	0x9f8ef513	BUY YES	0.657	$2,756	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 01:29 PM	0x9f8ef513	BUY YES	0.600	$1,923	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 07:38 AM	0xfbae01b3	BUY NO	0.400	$4,464	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 04:42 AM	0x9af5f845	BUY YES	0.200	$1,220	Conviction tier
Jun 3, 04:39 AM	0xac084d65	BUY YES	0.265	$1,821	Conviction tier
Jun 3, 03:08 AM	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY YES	0.727	$4,282	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 10:07 AM	0x1b1a75d6	BUY NO	0.120	$4,800	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 1, 02:11 AM	0x3b7db2db	SELL YES	0.830	$2,490	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 12:33 AM	0xc00920db	SELL NO	0.996	$21.9K	— (SELL)
May 31, 09:26 PM	0xc00920db	BUY NO	0.250	$2,500	Conviction tier
May 28, 02:42 PM	0x3b7db2db	BUY YES	0.750	$7,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 01:49 PM	0xb920ee20	BUY NO	0.940	$1,978	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 03:18 AM	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	SELL YES	0.609	$1,095	— (SELL)
May 27, 12:49 AM	0x1b1a75d6	SELL YES	0.810	$1,154	— (SELL)
May 27, 12:48 AM	0x3b7db2db	BUY YES	0.760	$1,223	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 12:33 AM	0x8c836cfb	BUY NO	0.500	$2,500	—
May 25, 04:04 AM	0xfce5fb13	BUY NO	0.191	$1,075	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 24, 11:36 PM	0x8c836cfb	BUY NO	0.964	$1,012	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 12:51 AM	0x2cd24d17	BUY NO	0.676	$2,676	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 12:51 AM	0x652002aa	SELL YES	0.999	$13.8K	— (SELL)
May 13, 03:10 PM	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	SELL YES	0.512	$2,024	— (SELL)
May 13, 01:56 PM	0xe3033b16	BUY NO	0.540	$1,026	—
May 13, 01:53 PM	0x652002aa	BUY YES	0.544	$1,088	—
May 13, 01:50 PM	0x652002aa	BUY YES	0.499	$2,375	—
May 13, 12:24 PM	0x652002aa	BUY YES	0.349	$1,679	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 12, 02:47 AM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	SELL NO	0.690	$4,140	— (SELL)
May 10, 03:12 PM	0xf71940cf	SELL NO	0.999	$4,671	— (SELL)
May 10, 10:25 AM	0x16133a1b	SELL YES	0.999	$10.2K	— (SELL)
May 9, 05:02 AM	0xae6d3d20	BUY NO	0.965	$1,448	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 05:00 AM	0xc4c3dbcc	SELL YES	0.610	$1,525	— (SELL)
May 9, 04:59 AM	0xae6d3d20	BUY NO	0.965	$2,413	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 04:58 AM	0xc4c3dbcc	SELL YES	0.610	$1,830	— (SELL)
May 9, 04:58 AM	0xae6d3d20	BUY NO	0.965	$2,895	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 04:56 AM	0xc4c3dbcc	SELL YES	0.610	$1,220	— (SELL)
May 9, 04:54 AM	0xae6d3d20	BUY NO	0.965	$1,930	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 04:54 AM	0xc4c3dbcc	SELL YES	0.610	$1,220	— (SELL)
May 9, 04:36 AM	0xae6d3d20	BUY NO	0.965	$1,930	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 01:36 PM	0x16133a1b	BUY YES	0.868	$1,860	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 10:00 AM	0x2bf8ed26	BUY NO	0.454	$1,230	—

Markets active in

56 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
0xc4c3dbcc	—	15	$179.9K	+$145.1K
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	1	$71.1K	+$71.1K
0xc587bda9	—	8	$49.5K	$-40,836
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	5	$33.7K	+$33.7K
0x2cd24d17	—	7	$33.6K	+$1,418
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Other	1	$32.0K	+$32.0K
0x1b1a75d6	—	8	$29.9K	+$27.6K
0xc00920db	—	2	$24.4K	$-19,383
0xfbae01b3	—	7	$20.9K	+$20.9K
0x9f8ef513	—	6	$20.5K	+$20.5K
0x652002aa	—	4	$18.9K	$-8,663
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Politics	3	$18.3K	+$10.5K
0x11fb30d1	—	3	$17.6K	+$17.6K
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Politics	4	$15.5K	+$9,112
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?	Tech	1	$13.3K	+$13.3K
0x16133a1b	—	2	$12.1K	$-8,363
0x3b7db2db	—	3	$11.2K	+$6,233
0xae6d3d20	—	5	$10.6K	+$10.6K
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Other	3	$9,698	+$9,698
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	1	$9,287	+$9,287
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	3	$7,401	+$1,162
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	3	$6,975	+$959
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?	Politics	2	$6,493	+$3,768
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	Politics	3	$5,830	+$5,830
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?	Politics	1	$5,157	+$5,157
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?	Politics	3	$5,150	+$5,150
0xf71940cf	—	1	$4,671	$-4,671
0xebf57e5d	—	2	$4,612	+$4,612
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	1	$4,140	$-4,140
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	1	$3,864	+$3,864

Showing top 30 by volume.