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robau

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x212f…7fd2 with our methodology badges per row.

0x212f7fc77c18c6ce34bb1dae43e9198ab19b7fd2·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
12
lifetime
PnL per $
-13%
historical realized
Win rate
75.8%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$163.3K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 12 resolved trades · -13% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
16
Distinct markets
4
Volume (90d)
$171.7K
avg $10.7K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$128.2K / $43.4K
net direction

Recent trades

last 16 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 15, 12:16 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.940$15.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 03:16 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.930$1,933Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 12:57 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.940$5,432Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 12:50 PMWill China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?SELL YES0.765$2,577— (SELL)
Jul 14, 12:50 PMChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?SELL NO0.878$2,743— (SELL)
Jul 14, 12:47 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.930$2,790Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 12:46 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.066$2,383— (SELL)
Jul 14, 12:39 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.910$4,003Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 12:38 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.098$4,181— (SELL)
Jul 14, 08:16 AMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.374$1,497Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 14, 06:50 AMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.361$5,066Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 14, 06:45 AMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.358$1,371Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 13, 11:29 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.630$31.6K— (SELL)
Jul 7, 08:40 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.850$88.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 02:41 AMChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?BUY NO0.870$1,997Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 12:09 PMWill China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?BUY YES0.800$1,000Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

4 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance7$148.8K+$85.7K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Finance5$14.5K+$1,370
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Other2$4,740$-746
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Finance2$3,577$-1,577