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Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x1ea7…bcd9 with our methodology badges per row.

0x1ea77a5e8191db9f2c0a18f2692feccd0c47bcd9·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
23
lifetime
PnL per $
-47%
historical realized
Win rate
37.3%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$102.8K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 23 resolved trades · -47% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
41
Distinct markets
23
Volume (90d)
$140.2K
avg $3,419 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$68.6K / $71.6K
net direction

Recent trades

last 41 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 15, 03:07 PMJude Bellingham: 1+ shotsBUY YES0.890$1,558Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 12:39 PMLionel Messi: 1+ shotsBUY YES0.947$4,025Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 07:40 PMWill France win on 2026-07-14?BUY NO0.815$2,038Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 01:56 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.930$13.6K— (SELL)
Jul 13, 04:16 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.760$9,240— (SELL)
Jul 9, 06:09 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.850$8,075— (SELL)
Jul 7, 02:15 AMWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?SELL YES0.547$1,641— (SELL)
Jul 3, 08:59 PMWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?BUY NO0.816$5,048Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 03:08 PMWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?SELL YES0.999$3,996— (SELL)
Jun 30, 01:15 PMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 29 2026?BUY NO0.970$1,175Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 01:54 AMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?SELL NO0.981$1,132— (SELL)
Jun 25, 11:17 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.760$9,880Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 11:08 AMWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?BUY YES0.393$2,360Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 25, 11:07 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL NO0.408$6,113— (SELL)
Jun 25, 11:04 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL NO0.422$3,378— (SELL)
Jun 24, 06:21 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL NO0.540$2,160— (SELL)
Jun 24, 05:16 PMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?SELL NO0.980$1,471— (SELL)
Jun 24, 01:24 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.750$3,750Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 01:24 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.750$15.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 01:00 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL NO0.570$4,370— (SELL)
Jun 13, 12:30 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?SELL NO0.754$2,011— (SELL)
Jun 12, 08:08 PMWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?BUY NO0.597$1,194—
Jun 12, 05:57 PM0x876047c0BUY NO0.858$1,717Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 03:18 PM0x6114a8a3SELL YES0.230$1,380— (SELL)
Jun 7, 07:01 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.777$1,554— (SELL)
Jun 4, 01:20 PM0x6114a8a3BUY YES0.250$1,500Cheap band — no rep
Jun 1, 02:51 PMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?SELL YES0.602$3,404— (SELL)
Jun 1, 12:24 PMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.797$3,985Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 12:23 PMEbola case in the US by June 30?SELL YES0.285$1,604— (SELL)
May 27, 07:13 PMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.939$1,235— (SELL)
May 27, 02:35 AM0xd3990526SELL NO0.894$2,414— (SELL)
May 26, 12:14 PM0xd3990526BUY NO0.859$1,289Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:11 PM0xd3990526BUY NO0.859$1,031Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 02:38 AMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.880$1,158— (SELL)
May 21, 01:13 PMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.830$1,523Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 08:29 PM0x16eb0381SELL YES0.999$1,588— (SELL)
May 20, 05:25 PM0x16eb0381BUY YES0.944$1,501Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 01:25 PM0x6cb7bff4BUY YES0.988$1,778Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 02:53 PM0x65f204a8BUY YES0.990$3,212Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 06:28 PM0x65f204a8BUY YES0.930$1,786Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 10:37 AM0x1db02ba5BUY NO0.814$3,256Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

23 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance6$59.6K$-2,334
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Tech4$16.0K$-16,020
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Crypto5$11.3K$-288
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?Other1$5,048+$5,048
0x65f204a8—2$4,997+$4,997
0xd3990526—3$4,733$-95
Lionel Messi: 1+ shotsOther1$4,025+$4,025
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Tech1$3,996$-3,996
0x1db02ba5—1$3,256+$3,256
0x16eb0381—2$3,090$-87
0x6114a8a3—2$2,880+$120
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?Finance2$2,602$-2,602
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Tech1$2,360+$2,360
Will France win on 2026-07-14?Other1$2,038+$2,038
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?Other1$2,011$-2,011
0x6cb7bff4—1$1,778+$1,778
0x876047c0—1$1,717+$1,717
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?Other1$1,641$-1,641
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Other1$1,604$-1,604
Jude Bellingham: 1+ shotsOther1$1,558+$1,558
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports1$1,554$-1,554
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Other1$1,194+$1,194
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 29 2026?Finance1$1,175+$1,175