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gorovi

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x1de9…831d with our methodology badges per row.

0x1de92e091804c709f5e06bf1d132f946e673831d·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
17
lifetime
PnL per $
-38%
historical realized
Win rate
61.4%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$216.0K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 17 resolved trades · -38% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
74
Distinct markets
26
Volume (90d)
$464.7K
avg $6,280 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$342.9K / $121.8K
net direction

Recent trades

last 74 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 18, 10:14 AMPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?BUY YES0.979$2,500Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:13 AMFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?SELL NO0.841$2,440— (SELL)
Jul 17, 02:19 PMNATO article 5 before 2027?BUY NO0.927$3,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 02:17 PMFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?SELL NO0.854$2,561— (SELL)
Jul 16, 10:01 PMPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?BUY YES0.982$6,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 09:03 AMNATO article 5 before 2027?BUY NO0.930$3,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 02:19 PMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.930$3,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 02:15 PMFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?SELL NO0.880$1,258— (SELL)
Jul 14, 09:00 PMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.930$3,060Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 08:58 PMPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?SELL YES0.949$3,060— (SELL)
Jul 14, 08:45 PMExact Score: France 3 - 3 Spain?BUY NO0.999$11.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 02:57 PMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.930$2,921Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 02:56 PMHantavirus pandemic in 2026?SELL NO0.975$2,925— (SELL)
Jul 14, 02:50 PMNATO article 5 before 2027?BUY NO0.930$3,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 09:23 AM0x4b7b21a5BUY NO0.950$3,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 02:30 PMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.930$3,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 07:15 AMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.930$2,730Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 07:14 AMPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.910$2,730— (SELL)
Jul 13, 07:10 AM0x4b7b21a5BUY NO0.948$3,900Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 07:09 AMHantavirus pandemic in 2026?SELL NO0.975$3,901— (SELL)
Jul 12, 07:56 PMPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?BUY YES0.930$3,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 07:55 PMPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.910$2,730— (SELL)
Jul 12, 12:26 PM0x4b7b21a5BUY NO0.942$2,924Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 12:25 PMHantavirus pandemic in 2026?SELL NO0.976$2,928— (SELL)
Jul 12, 11:39 AMWill Russia invade another country in 2026?BUY NO0.920$3,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 11:38 AMHantavirus pandemic in 2026?SELL NO0.976$2,929— (SELL)
Jul 12, 09:07 AMWill National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?BUY YES0.999$20.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 08:43 AMHantavirus pandemic in 2026?SELL NO0.977$2,931— (SELL)
Jul 12, 08:42 AMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.930$3,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 01:19 PMPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.910$5,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 08:54 PMExact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Colombia?BUY NO0.999$20.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 02:45 PMWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.998$20.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 10:38 AMFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?BUY NO0.908$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 01:24 PMFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?BUY NO0.902$4,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:50 AMWill Russia invade another country in 2026?BUY NO0.920$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 09:22 AMPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.900$3,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 08:35 AMFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?BUY NO0.888$4,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 10:58 AMWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.973$20.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 07:10 PMWill Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.999$20.3K— (SELL)
Jun 24, 02:58 PMFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?BUY NO0.865$3,900Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 02:57 PMWill any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.997$2,991— (SELL)
Jun 24, 08:05 AMFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?BUY NO0.845$3,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 08:05 AM0x495e6b49SELL NO0.996$2,988— (SELL)
Jun 21, 07:57 AMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.910$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 07:54 AMWill any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.996$1,992— (SELL)
Jun 8, 03:36 PMPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.920$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 01:20 PM0xc18b1b9cSELL YES0.995$2,057— (SELL)
Jun 4, 04:30 PM0xc18b1b9cBUY YES0.967$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 11:30 AMWill Russia invade another country in 2026?BUY NO0.900$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 11:17 AMWill Russia invade another country in 2026?BUY NO0.893$5,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 07:46 AMWill Russia invade another country in 2026?BUY NO0.880$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 12:38 PMNATO article 5 before 2027?BUY NO0.855$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 12:47 PMWill Russia invade another country in 2026?BUY NO0.879$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 11:23 AMWill any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.930$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:39 PMNATO article 5 before 2027?BUY NO0.860$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 09:46 AMNATO article 5 before 2027?BUY NO0.860$5,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 10:44 AMPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.920$4,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 07:47 AMWill Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.930$20.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 07:45 AMWill Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.984$20.0K— (SELL)
May 16, 06:43 AMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.870$15.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 09:23 AM0x8c3455f1BUY YES0.986$4,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 06:34 AM0x9f1b7421BUY NO0.996$5,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 07:15 PMHantavirus pandemic in 2026?BUY NO0.920$5,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 01:47 PMHantavirus pandemic in 2026?BUY NO0.913$15.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 01:46 PMPutin out as President of Russia by June 30?SELL NO0.975$15.0K— (SELL)
May 11, 11:49 AMHantavirus pandemic in 2026?BUY NO0.922$20.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 11:49 AMWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL NO0.998$20.1K— (SELL)
May 9, 07:55 PMPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?BUY NO0.880$3,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 08:44 PMWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.992$20.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 07:57 PM0x99783ea5BUY NO0.997$9,377Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 07:57 PM0x99783ea5BUY NO0.983$10.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 07:37 PMWill any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.972$10,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 07:00 PM0xa93b28a6SELL NO0.593$5,933— (SELL)
May 8, 02:28 PM0x8c3455f1BUY YES0.980$5,000Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

26 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Other8$55.6K+$24.4K
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports2$40.1K$-117
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Other8$34.7K+$34.7K
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?Other8$23.2K+$10.6K
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics7$22.5K+$11.5K
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$20.3K$-20,305
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$20.0K$-20,020
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?Politics1$20.0K+$20.0K
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Colombia?Other1$20.0K+$20.0K
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$20.0K+$20.0K
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$20.0K+$20.0K
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?Crypto1$20.0K+$20.0K
0x99783ea52$20.0K+$20.0K
NATO article 5 before 2027?Other6$18.0K+$18.0K
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Other6$16.0K+$16.0K
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?Other3$15.0K+$5,017
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?Politics1$15.0K$-14,972
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?Politics4$14.6K+$8,440
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Spain?Tech1$11.0K+$11.0K
0x4b7b21a53$9,824+$9,824
0x8c3455f12$9,000+$9,000
0xa93b28a61$5,933$-5,933
0x9f1b74211$5,000+$5,000
0xc18b1b9c2$4,057$-57
0x495e6b491$2,988$-2,988
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?Other1$2,000+$2,000