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Ru386

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x1d60…453d with our methodology badges per row.

0x1d603dad31fac599c1de6b6002d066993460453d·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
58
lifetime
PnL per $
-60%
historical realized
Win rate
26.0%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$149.4K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 58 resolved trades · -60% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
95
Distinct markets
57
Volume (90d)
$260.5K
avg $2,742 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$127.3K / $133.2K
net direction

Recent trades

last 95 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 21, 02:16 AMWill Japan win on 2026-06-21?BUY NO0.320$1,000Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 21, 02:14 AMWill Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?BUY NO0.890$9,200Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 01:37 AMWill Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?BUY YES0.510$1,100
Jun 21, 01:19 AMWill Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?SELL YES0.580$5,003— (SELL)
Jun 21, 12:37 AMWill Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?BUY NO0.250$2,000Cheap band — no rep
Jun 21, 12:14 AMWill Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?BUY YES0.820$4,400Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 10:19 PMWill Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?BUY YES0.840$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 10:18 PMWill Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?BUY YES0.840$1,600Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 09:51 PMWill Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?BUY YES0.730$1,892Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 09:50 PMWill Germany win on 2026-06-20?SELL YES0.170$1,126— (SELL)
Jun 20, 09:48 PMWill Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?BUY NO0.900$1,500Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 08:31 PMWill Germany win on 2026-06-20?BUY YES0.396$1,800Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 20, 08:16 PMWill Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?BUY NO0.830$5,100Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 07:55 PMWill Germany win on 2026-06-20?BUY YES0.670$2,100Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 07:53 PMWill Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?BUY NO0.870$7,100Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 07:53 PMWill Germany win on 2026-06-20?BUY YES0.670$3,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 05:05 AMWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?BUY NO0.860$3,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 05:04 AMWill Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?SELL NO0.999$5,190— (SELL)
Jun 13, 05:04 AMWill United States win on 2026-06-12?SELL YES0.999$6,793— (SELL)
Jun 13, 03:28 AMWill Portugal win on 2026-06-17?BUY YES0.770$1,300Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 03:27 AMWill Norway win on 2026-06-16?BUY YES0.820$1,100Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 03:26 AMWill Scotland win on 2026-06-13?BUY YES0.630$1,600Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 03:24 AMWill Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?BUY YES0.810$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 11:12 PMWill Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?BUY NO0.770$3,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 11:09 PMWill Morocco win on 2026-06-13?BUY NO0.830$3,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 11:03 PMWill United States win on 2026-06-12?BUY YES0.470$2,000
Jun 12, 10:24 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.194$3,000Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 12, 10:10 AMWill Sweden win on 2026-06-14?BUY YES0.520$1,500
Jun 11, 11:14 PMWill Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?BUY NO0.630$3,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 02:43 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.748$3,620— (SELL)
Jun 9, 01:13 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.678$6,055— (SELL)
Jun 9, 12:55 AMWill Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?BUY NO0.800$1,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 12:54 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.711$11.2K— (SELL)
May 31, 01:56 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.145$1,276— (SELL)
May 31, 01:05 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.228$1,225— (SELL)
May 31, 12:39 AMWill Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?SELL YES0.939$1,261— (SELL)
May 30, 11:42 PMUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?SELL NO0.976$2,518— (SELL)
May 30, 11:28 PMWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?SELL NO0.999$1,355— (SELL)
May 30, 09:42 AMWill Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-05-30?SELL NO0.999$1,949— (SELL)
May 29, 03:54 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.309$6,500Killed band — neutral expectation
May 29, 01:57 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?SELL NO0.991$1,140— (SELL)
May 28, 11:50 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.283$1,500Cheap band — no rep
May 27, 12:32 PMUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?BUY NO0.833$2,100Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 12:17 PMWill Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?BUY YES0.699$1,100Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 12:02 PMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?BUY YES0.790$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 12:00 PMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.580$5,100
May 27, 10:45 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.590$2,000
May 27, 10:09 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?BUY YES0.790$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 04:29 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.287$2,000Cheap band — no rep
May 27, 04:29 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.581$3,000
May 26, 01:39 AMWill Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?SELL NO0.948$2,180— (SELL)
May 23, 04:36 PMWill Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23?SELL YES0.990$1,112— (SELL)
May 23, 04:36 PMWill Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23?SELL YES0.990$1,238— (SELL)
May 23, 05:20 AMWill Nara Club win on 2026-05-23?BUY YES0.803$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 01:44 PMWill Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-19?SELL NO0.999$1,067— (SELL)
May 19, 01:43 PMWill AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19?BUY NO0.810$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 01:07 PMWill AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19?BUY NO0.810$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 12:04 PMWill Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?BUY NO0.870$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 03:23 AMWill CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-17?SELL NO0.999$1,009— (SELL)
May 17, 10:54 PMWill Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?SELL YES0.999$31.5K— (SELL)
May 17, 09:44 PMWill Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?BUY YES0.696$1,500Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 09:36 PMWill Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?BUY YES0.666$2,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 09:28 PMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?SELL YES0.830$2,075— (SELL)
May 17, 09:08 PMWill Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?BUY YES0.323$1,600Killed band — neutral expectation
May 17, 09:08 PMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?SELL YES0.820$2,051— (SELL)
May 17, 08:55 PMWill Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?BUY YES0.290$2,000Cheap band — no rep
May 17, 08:54 PMWill Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship?BUY YES0.316$2,000Killed band — neutral expectation
May 17, 08:52 PMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?SELL YES0.862$4,314— (SELL)
May 17, 08:51 PMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?SELL NO0.870$1,279— (SELL)
May 17, 08:44 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?SELL NO0.952$1,388— (SELL)
May 17, 08:39 PMWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?SELL YES0.406$1,042— (SELL)
May 17, 08:10 PMWill Algeria win on 2026-06-16?SELL NO0.891$1,067— (SELL)
May 17, 01:40 PMWill FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17?BUY YES0.640$1,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 01:39 PMWill Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17?SELL YES0.999$3,198— (SELL)
May 17, 12:04 AMWill CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-16?SELL YES0.999$1,895— (SELL)
May 16, 05:14 PMWill Algeria win on 2026-06-16?BUY NO0.919$1,100Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 04:56 PMWill FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16?SELL YES0.999$2,230— (SELL)
May 16, 04:56 PMWill Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16?SELL NO0.999$2,343— (SELL)
May 16, 02:45 AMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?SELL NO0.860$1,686— (SELL)
May 15, 10:01 PMWill Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17?SELL YES0.999$1,211— (SELL)
May 14, 10:07 PMWill Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14?SELL NO0.999$1,494— (SELL)
May 14, 05:42 PMWill Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14?SELL NO0.840$1,256— (SELL)
May 13, 09:21 PM0xc682efb2SELL NO0.999$1,279— (SELL)
May 13, 09:19 PMWill Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-13?SELL NO0.999$1,680— (SELL)
May 13, 09:10 PMWill FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13?SELL NO0.946$3,714— (SELL)
May 11, 09:19 AMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?BUY YES0.823$1,200Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 09:10 PMWill Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?SELL NO0.999$3,908— (SELL)
May 10, 08:28 PMWill Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-10?SELL NO0.999$1,833— (SELL)
May 4, 09:08 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?SELL NO0.999$2,395— (SELL)
May 2, 09:57 AMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?BUY YES0.801$5,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 06:55 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?BUY YES0.570$1,200
Apr 28, 12:12 AMIsrael x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?SELL YES0.996$1,022— (SELL)
Apr 26, 01:05 PMUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?SELL NO0.998$1,063— (SELL)
Apr 25, 09:13 PMThunder vs. SunsBUY YES0.890$1,020Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 01:51 PMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.790$3,097Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

57 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?Sports5$38.6K$-24,359
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports6$30.9K$-10,883
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?Other6$16.1K+$6,097
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Tech5$14.6K$-2,241
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?Other3$13.7K+$13.7K
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports5$12.6K+$7,599
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?Other1$9,200+$9,200
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Other2$8,793$-4,793
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?Other2$8,190$-2,190
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Other4$8,026+$5,774
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Other3$6,062+$132
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Other2$4,618$-418
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Tech2$4,180$-180
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?Sports2$4,000+$4,000
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19?Other2$4,000+$4,000
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?Other1$3,908$-3,908
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13?Other1$3,714$-3,714
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17?Other1$3,198$-3,198
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics1$3,000+$3,000
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?Other1$3,000+$3,000
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports1$3,000+$3,000
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?Other1$3,000+$3,000
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14?Other2$2,750$-2,750
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Tech1$2,395$-2,395
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23?Other2$2,350$-2,350
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16?Other1$2,343$-2,343
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16?Other1$2,230$-2,230
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?Other2$2,167+$33
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?Other1$2,000+$2,000
Will Nara Club win on 2026-05-23?Other1$2,000+$2,000

Showing top 30 by volume.