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alliswell

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x1521…f23e with our methodology badges per row.

0x1521b47bf0c41f6b7fd3ad41cdec566812c8f23e·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
32
lifetime
PnL per $
-48%
historical realized
Win rate
21.0%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$429.0K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 32 resolved trades · -48% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
56
Distinct markets
25
Volume (90d)
$685.7K
avg $12.2K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$179.2K / $506.6K
net direction

Recent trades

last 56 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 9, 11:48 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.820$55.6K— (SELL)
Jul 8, 10:38 AMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.326$21.3K— (SELL)
Jul 8, 06:40 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.790$6,873Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 03:40 AMSCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?BUY YES0.948$1,073Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 12:58 AMWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?SELL YES0.820$41.0K— (SELL)
Jun 29, 12:58 AMWill the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?SELL NO0.820$41.0K— (SELL)
Jun 29, 12:53 AMAleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?SELL YES0.970$2,318— (SELL)
Jun 24, 02:47 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?SELL NO0.996$24.2K— (SELL)
Jun 22, 10:23 AMWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?SELL YES0.991$25.6K— (SELL)
Jun 22, 09:07 AMWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?SELL YES0.992$40.9K— (SELL)
Jun 11, 01:42 AMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?SELL NO0.967$6,313— (SELL)
Jun 9, 04:57 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?SELL NO0.980$9,800— (SELL)
Jun 7, 07:29 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?SELL NO0.970$3,348— (SELL)
Jun 7, 06:09 PMIran closes its airspace by June 8?BUY NO0.850$1,530Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 04:01 PMIran closes its airspace by June 8?SELL NO0.930$7,028— (SELL)
Jun 7, 03:18 PMIran closes its airspace by June 8?BUY NO0.934$3,400Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 02:41 AMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?BUY NO0.973$4,738Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 07:49 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?BUY NO0.970$31.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 07:46 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?BUY NO0.969$2,623Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 08:09 AMIran closes its airspace by June 30?SELL NO0.802$6,185— (SELL)
Jun 6, 01:26 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?SELL NO0.977$29.3K— (SELL)
Jun 6, 12:38 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?SELL NO0.979$29.4K— (SELL)
Jun 6, 12:30 AMIran closes its airspace by June 8?BUY NO0.937$3,239Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 12:24 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?SELL NO0.981$49.0K— (SELL)
Jun 5, 04:53 PMIran closes its airspace by June 8?BUY NO0.937$8,764Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 04:44 PMWill a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?BUY YES0.932$2,374Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 04:38 PMIran closes its airspace by June 8?BUY NO0.937$1,247Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 04:32 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?SELL NO0.977$9,769— (SELL)
Jun 4, 03:46 AMWill the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?SELL YES0.979$9,788— (SELL)
Jun 3, 01:01 PM0xebf57e5dBUY NO0.400$1,063Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 3, 01:21 AMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?SELL YES0.003$1,182— (SELL)
Jun 2, 04:56 PMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.006$2,146
Jun 1, 10:03 PM0x366f8964BUY YES0.060$3,943Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 1, 03:29 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.998$9,072Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 10:34 AM0xfbda5ef7BUY YES0.946$2,894Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 05:59 PM0x8b369e10SELL YES0.570$8,113— (SELL)
May 29, 03:49 PM0x8b369e10BUY YES0.650$3,036Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:36 PM0x8b369e10BUY YES0.708$18.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 09:28 PM0xa1d97efbBUY NO0.990$46.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 08:31 AM0x6114a8a3SELL NO0.500$2,170— (SELL)
May 27, 02:42 AM0x4ba34832SELL NO0.998$30.6K— (SELL)
May 23, 11:41 PM0x4ba34832BUY NO0.846$7,604Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 10:20 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.610$2,271Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 01:38 PM0x4ba34832SELL YES0.300$1,219— (SELL)
May 23, 01:29 PM0x4ba34832SELL YES0.299$1,105— (SELL)
May 23, 01:21 PM0x4ba34832SELL YES0.299$1,182— (SELL)
May 23, 01:17 PM0x4ba34832SELL YES0.299$1,213— (SELL)
May 23, 12:22 PM0x4ba34832SELL YES0.321$1,424— (SELL)
May 23, 10:54 AM0x4ba34832SELL YES0.363$18.0K— (SELL)
May 23, 07:19 AM0xb7dd41c1SELL YES0.984$4,623— (SELL)
May 23, 06:06 AMIran closes its airspace by June 30?SELL YES0.989$7,579— (SELL)
May 23, 06:05 AM0xb7dd41c1SELL YES0.989$2,827— (SELL)
May 23, 06:01 AMIran closes its airspace by June 30?SELL YES0.991$3,574— (SELL)
May 23, 06:00 AMIran closes its airspace by June 15?SELL YES0.990$9,900— (SELL)
May 23, 12:29 AM0xdb22a774BUY YES0.974$3,802Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 12:26 AM0x4ba34832BUY YES0.969$11.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

25 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Other3$107.7K$-107,694
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Other8$91.8K$-15,045
0x4ba348329$73.8K$-35,767
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Politics2$66.5K$-66,496
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance2$62.5K$-48,708
0xa1d97efb1$46.8K+$46.8K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics1$41.0K$-41,000
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics1$41.0K$-41,000
0x8b369e103$29.4K+$13.2K
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Tech6$25.2K+$11.2K
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$21.3K$-21,293
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Tech3$17.3K$-17,338
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Other2$11.3K+$11.3K
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Tech1$9,900$-9,900
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?Other1$9,788$-9,788
0xb7dd41c12$7,449$-7,449
0x366f89641$3,943+$3,943
0xdb22a7741$3,802+$3,802
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Crypto2$3,327+$964
0xfbda5ef71$2,894+$2,894
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Other1$2,374+$2,374
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?Politics1$2,318$-2,318
0x6114a8a31$2,170$-2,170
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?Politics1$1,073+$1,073
0xebf57e5d1$1,063+$1,063