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bearbees2

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x12b8…479c with our methodology badges per row.

0x12b8e7c160f3ced67a22b7eadf764cd1c2c4479c·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
4
lifetime
PnL per $
-41%
historical realized
Win rate
58.7%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$17.0K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 4 resolved trades · -41% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
33
Distinct markets
17
Volume (90d)
$177.9K
avg $5,390 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$129.3K / $48.5K
net direction

Recent trades

last 33 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 25, 06:44 PMWill Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?BUY NO0.997$6,084Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:11 PMWill Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?BUY NO0.999$2,140Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 03:04 PMWill US withdraw from NATO by June 30?SELL NO0.998$7,041— (SELL)
Jun 1, 06:23 AM0x55e189e4BUY NO0.998$2,290Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 08:50 AM0xb4067f81BUY NO0.992$2,976Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 10:28 PM0x0eee746aSELL NO0.999$3,024— (SELL)
May 28, 10:08 PMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.850$2,062Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 10:08 PM0x0eee746aSELL NO0.999$1,998— (SELL)
May 28, 10:02 PMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.850$1,840Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 10:02 PMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.850$2,436Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 10:00 PMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.850$1,991Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 10:00 PMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.850$14.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 10:00 PMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.850$9,927Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:59 PM0xcccb7e76SELL NO0.999$33.3K— (SELL)
May 28, 09:58 PMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.850$3,421Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:51 PMAliens.gov confirmed immigration website?BUY YES0.980$1,353Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:06 PMWill Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?BUY NO0.988$1,770Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 08:20 PM0xf90bba14BUY NO0.994$1,241Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 08:13 PM0x0eee746aBUY NO0.996$2,426Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 08:01 PM0x0eee746aBUY NO0.995$1,184Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 08:00 PM0x0eee746aBUY NO0.994$8,757Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 07:57 PM0x0eee746aBUY NO0.994$1,756Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 01:23 PM0xd0f4cc0dBUY NO0.998$1,609Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 01:17 PM0xf90bba14BUY NO0.990$6,158Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 08:39 PM0x495e6b49SELL NO0.981$1,184— (SELL)
May 26, 06:50 AM0x4ba34832BUY NO0.992$2,461Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 08:07 PM0x4ba34832BUY NO0.989$12.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 02:09 PM0xcccb7e76BUY NO0.997$26.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 06:38 PM0xcccb7e76BUY NO0.992$4,050Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 09:37 PM0x5e5482b1BUY NO0.960$5,099Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 08:07 PMAliens.gov confirmed immigration website?SELL NO0.500$1,974— (SELL)
May 9, 01:41 PMHantavirus pandemic in 2026?BUY NO0.917$1,834Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 02:11 PM0x62338d04BUY YES0.995$1,055Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

17 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
0xcccb7e76—3$63.7K$-2,926
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Other7$35.9K+$35.9K
0x0eee746a—6$19.1K+$9,100
0x4ba34832—2$15.3K+$15.3K
0xf90bba14—2$7,399+$7,399
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?Other1$7,041$-7,041
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?Other1$6,084+$6,084
0x5e5482b1—1$5,099+$5,099
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?Other2$3,327$-621
0xb4067f81—1$2,976+$2,976
0x55e189e4—1$2,290+$2,290
Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Politics1$2,140+$2,140
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Other1$1,834+$1,834
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?Other1$1,770+$1,770
0xd0f4cc0d—1$1,609+$1,609
0x495e6b49—1$1,184$-1,184
0x62338d04—1$1,055+$1,055