orange.juice

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x11e1…5621 with our methodology badges per row.

0x11e10b40d9b2b365ce9d6cbc37ee9b0e8f465621·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-14%

historical realized

Win rate

68.7%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$232.6K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 93 resolved trades · -14% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

127

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$291.1K

avg $2,292 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$241.5K / $49.6K

net direction

Recent trades

last 127 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 19, 10:02 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.999	$3,903	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 10:02 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.999	$3,240	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 10:02 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.999	$1,285	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:52 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.939	$3,794	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:50 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.937	$3,661	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:49 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.970	$2,911	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:49 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.922	$13.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:49 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.919	$1,182	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:49 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.909	$6,679	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:48 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.901	$12.2K	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:31 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.650	$1,905	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:31 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.650	$1,235	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:31 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.650	$3,250	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:26 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.770	$10.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:26 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.750	$11.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:12 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.744	$1,176	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:11 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.248	$1,219	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 19, 09:11 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.760	$2,964	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:08 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.583	$1,874	—
Jul 14, 08:22 PM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.940	$1,293	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 08:14 PM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.814	$1,171	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 07:49 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.645	$1,176	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 07:26 PM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.739	$1,476	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 07:22 PM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.253	$3,578	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 14, 07:19 PM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.325	$1,000	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 1, 10:39 PM	Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.903	$1,821	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 07:14 PM	Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.600	$1,500	—
Jul 1, 04:06 PM	Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?	BUY NO	0.769	$2,680	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 03:51 PM	Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.870	$1,392	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 09:31 PM	Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.840	$1,068	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 06:58 PM	Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	SELL NO	0.999	$2,772	— (SELL)
Jun 29, 06:15 PM	Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY NO	0.550	$4,899	—
Jun 29, 06:15 PM	Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY NO	0.550	$1,526	—
Jun 29, 06:15 PM	Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY NO	0.550	$1,189	—
Jun 28, 03:27 AM	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY NO	0.850	$2,556	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 01:27 AM	Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	SELL YES	0.999	$1,372	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 01:24 AM	Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?	SELL NO	0.999	$1,856	— (SELL)
Jun 28, 01:11 AM	Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY YES	0.790	$3,405	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 12:05 AM	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY NO	0.700	$3,336	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 11:37 PM	Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?	BUY NO	0.800	$1,486	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 11:32 PM	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY YES	0.449	$1,275	—
Jun 27, 10:47 PM	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY YES	0.900	$1,093	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 10:06 PM	Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY YES	0.710	$5,012	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 04:59 AM	Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	BUY YES	0.896	$1,811	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 12:52 AM	Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY YES	0.740	$1,146	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 12:52 AM	Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY YES	0.740	$1,283	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 12:52 AM	Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY YES	0.740	$1,437	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 07:56 PM	Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY YES	0.957	$1,789	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 07:43 PM	Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.956	$1,222	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 07:40 PM	Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.964	$1,127	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 07:22 PM	Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.902	$1,135	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 03:39 AM	Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY NO	0.575	$2,455	—
Jun 26, 02:47 AM	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY NO	0.480	$1,274	—
Jun 26, 02:19 AM	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY NO	0.750	$1,008	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 12:57 AM	Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.971	$1,009	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 12:56 AM	Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.946	$1,363	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 12:14 AM	Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.960	$1,372	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 09:42 PM	Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY NO	0.976	$1,124	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 09:40 PM	Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY NO	0.968	$1,549	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 08:08 PM	Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.783	$1,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 08:07 PM	Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY YES	0.757	$1,042	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 08:06 PM	Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY YES	0.761	$1,116	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 08:03 PM	Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY YES	0.745	$1,004	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 08:02 PM	Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY YES	0.720	$1,438	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 06:51 PM	Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.793	$2,241	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 02:10 AM	Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY NO	0.781	$1,520	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 11:44 PM	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY YES	0.870	$1,856	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 11:41 PM	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY YES	0.876	$2,524	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 11:39 PM	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	SELL YES	0.999	$1,301	— (SELL)
Jun 24, 11:39 PM	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	SELL YES	0.999	$1,438	— (SELL)
Jun 24, 11:38 PM	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY NO	0.530	$1,184	—
Jun 24, 10:09 PM	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY YES	0.890	$1,159	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 10:08 PM	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY YES	0.880	$3,355	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 10:08 PM	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	BUY NO	0.910	$2,519	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 10:06 PM	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY YES	0.730	$1,126	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 10:03 PM	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY YES	0.750	$1,152	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 08:52 PM	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY YES	0.955	$3,821	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 07:47 PM	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.730	$1,396	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 07:42 PM	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY YES	0.900	$3,559	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 07:42 PM	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.896	$1,953	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 03:57 AM	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL YES	0.999	$2,792	— (SELL)
Jun 24, 03:48 AM	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY YES	0.936	$2,617	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 03:44 AM	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY YES	0.929	$1,408	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 03:30 AM	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY NO	0.570	$1,131	—
Jun 24, 03:18 AM	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY YES	0.520	$3,628	—
Jun 24, 02:35 AM	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY YES	0.610	$1,220	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 02:32 AM	Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.750	$1,019	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 12:50 AM	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY YES	0.930	$1,381	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 12:42 AM	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY YES	0.880	$2,427	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 11:08 PM	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY YES	0.660	$1,262	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 09:26 PM	Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY YES	0.550	$1,332	—
Jun 23, 09:26 PM	Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY YES	0.560	$1,202	—
Jun 23, 09:16 PM	Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY YES	0.620	$2,338	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 08:42 PM	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY NO	0.940	$1,221	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 08:39 PM	Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY YES	0.740	$1,109	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 04:57 AM	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	SELL NO	0.999	$2,289	— (SELL)
Jun 23, 04:48 AM	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY YES	0.910	$1,764	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 04:45 AM	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY YES	0.800	$1,982	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 03:49 AM	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY NO	0.720	$2,158	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 03:36 AM	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY YES	0.376	$1,129	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 23, 03:36 AM	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY NO	0.649	$2,637	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 03:02 AM	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY NO	0.880	$3,699	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 01:59 AM	Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL YES	0.999	$1,145	— (SELL)
Jun 23, 01:11 AM	Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY YES	0.910	$1,043	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 12:49 AM	Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL YES	0.999	$7,078	— (SELL)
Jun 23, 12:46 AM	Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY YES	0.650	$3,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 11:57 PM	Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY YES	0.380	$1,071	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 22, 11:17 PM	Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY YES	0.941	$1,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 11:06 PM	Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY YES	0.945	$4,384	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:49 PM	Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.965	$1,337	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:47 PM	Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.966	$1,025	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:45 PM	Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.959	$1,206	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 07:18 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL YES	0.999	$3,207	— (SELL)
Jun 22, 06:56 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY YES	0.950	$2,057	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 05:12 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY YES	0.654	$1,053	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 05:10 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY YES	0.670	$1,709	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 05:10 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY YES	0.670	$1,077	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 05:09 PM	Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.800	$1,669	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 02:32 AM	Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY NO	0.987	$2,993	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 02:27 AM	Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY NO	0.240	$1,063	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 22, 02:27 AM	Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY NO	0.253	$2,357	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 21, 11:28 PM	Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY NO	0.540	$1,247	—
Jun 21, 07:13 PM	Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY YES	0.710	$1,752	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 07:01 PM	Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY YES	0.680	$1,626	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 06:57 PM	Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY YES	0.690	$4,314	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 08:31 PM	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.392	$1,076	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 20, 05:44 PM	Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.873	$1,752	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

52 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	10	$61.5K	+$29.6K
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Tech	10	$27.1K	+$10.2K
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Other	3	$13.3K	$-894
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Other	6	$12.8K	+$7,212
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Other	4	$10.4K	+$4,842
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Other	5	$9,103	+$2,688
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Other	3	$8,624	+$4,047
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	5	$8,519	+$8,519
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Other	5	$8,377	+$2,901
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Other	3	$7,691	+$7,691
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Other	6	$7,272	+$7,272
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Other	4	$7,032	+$7,032
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Other	4	$6,716	+$6,716
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Other	4	$6,259	+$3,969
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Other	4	$5,980	+$5,980
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Other	3	$5,070	+$5,070
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Other	1	$5,012	+$5,012
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Other	2	$4,777	+$2,033
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Tech	3	$3,866	+$3,866
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Other	1	$3,821	+$3,821
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Other	3	$3,568	+$3,568
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Other	1	$3,559	+$3,559
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	Other	2	$3,441	+$3,441
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Other	2	$3,421	+$3,421
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Other	2	$3,349	+$3,349
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?	Other	2	$3,343	$-370
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	Other	1	$3,336	+$3,336
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Other	1	$2,993	+$2,993
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?	Other	1	$2,680	+$2,680
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?	Other	1	$2,556	+$2,556

Showing top 30 by volume.