50000x

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x0f47…d66e with our methodology badges per row.

0x0f47682c24cee9f5381973e7dc2db03d5cc2d66e·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

123

lifetime

PnL per $

-33%

historical realized

Win rate

49.7%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$393.5K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 123 resolved trades · -33% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

141

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$443.9K

avg $3,148 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$246.1K / $197.8K

net direction

Recent trades

last 141 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 20, 02:46 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.863	$1,856	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 02:45 PM	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	SELL YES	0.649	$1,575	— (SELL)
Jul 20, 02:32 PM	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	BUY YES	0.722	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 02:32 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.931	$1,024	— (SELL)
Jul 20, 02:31 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.931	$1,024	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 11:35 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?	BUY NO	0.820	$3,001	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:34 PM	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?	BUY NO	0.770	$3,001	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:25 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	BUY NO	0.873	$1,572	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 11:08 PM	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	BUY YES	0.930	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 10:59 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	BUY NO	0.871	$2,885	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 10:48 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.903	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:45 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	SELL NO	0.696	$3,080	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:45 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	SELL NO	0.712	$1,978	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 07:38 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.936	$10.2K	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 10:49 PM	Will France vs. England end in a draw?	SELL NO	0.930	$4,185	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 09:47 PM	France vs. England: Both Teams to Score in First Half	SELL NO	0.941	$4,144	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 09:43 PM	France vs. England: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY NO	0.863	$3,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 08:37 PM	Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	BUY NO	0.740	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 16, 02:55 PM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	SELL NO	0.964	$2,217	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:58 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?	BUY YES	0.908	$5,331	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 10:33 PM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	BUY NO	0.795	$1,986	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 10:30 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	BUY NO	0.842	$2,001	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 10:27 PM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	BUY NO	0.776	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 10:01 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.920	$10,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 09:54 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.870	$3,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 09:39 PM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	BUY NO	0.788	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 09:01 PM	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	SELL NO	0.809	$2,485	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 09:01 PM	Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?	SELL NO	0.947	$9,383	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 09:01 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	SELL NO	0.841	$5,017	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 08:58 PM	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	SELL YES	0.905	$3,266	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 08:58 PM	Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	SELL NO	0.831	$1,845	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 08:58 PM	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?	SELL NO	0.910	$2,557	— (SELL)
Jul 13, 10:39 PM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	SELL NO	0.694	$4,366	— (SELL)
Jul 13, 10:39 PM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	SELL NO	0.822	$4,810	— (SELL)
Jul 13, 07:50 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.640	$10.4K	— (SELL)
Jul 13, 04:37 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.670	$1,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:35 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	SELL NO	0.912	$5,460	— (SELL)
Jul 13, 04:00 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?	SELL NO	0.930	$3,078	— (SELL)
Jul 13, 02:57 PM	Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?	BUY NO	0.901	$3,765	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 02:46 PM	Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?	BUY NO	0.889	$3,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 06:30 AM	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	BUY YES	0.920	$1,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 06:25 AM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	BUY NO	0.936	$3,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 11:42 PM	Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	BUY NO	0.920	$2,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 11:42 PM	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	BUY NO	0.685	$2,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 10:27 PM	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?	BUY NO	0.890	$2,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 10:13 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?	BUY NO	0.910	$2,522	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 06:14 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.800	$1,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 06:13 PM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	BUY NO	0.840	$3,300	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 10:06 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.800	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 10:02 AM	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	SELL NO	0.434	$1,839	— (SELL)
Jul 12, 10:00 AM	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.560	$1,732	— (SELL)
Jul 12, 04:44 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	BUY NO	0.919	$5,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 02:11 AM	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	BUY NO	0.590	$2,501	—
Jul 12, 02:00 AM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	BUY NO	0.888	$3,501	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 01:59 AM	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	BUY NO	0.827	$2,501	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 01:56 AM	Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?	BUY NO	0.933	$1,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 01:52 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.780	$5,001	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 10:33 PM	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	SELL NO	0.772	$3,941	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 10:32 PM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	SELL NO	0.820	$4,000	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 10:32 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.780	$4,553	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 10:32 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	SELL NO	0.878	$3,741	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 10:23 PM	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	SELL NO	0.609	$2,446	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 10:23 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?	SELL NO	0.740	$1,479	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 10:23 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	SELL NO	0.860	$1,856	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 09:52 PM	Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	SELL NO	0.930	$3,934	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 09:52 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.553	$2,248	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 09:50 PM	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	SELL YES	0.920	$2,569	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 09:02 PM	Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY NO	0.800	$3,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 07:54 PM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	SELL NO	0.979	$6,427	— (SELL)
Jul 10, 02:27 PM	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?	SELL NO	0.880	$1,188	— (SELL)
Jul 9, 10:36 PM	Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY NO	0.812	$2,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 10:25 PM	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	BUY NO	0.760	$2,463	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 05:04 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.850	$1,318	— (SELL)
Jul 9, 02:32 PM	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	SELL NO	0.971	$2,158	— (SELL)
Jul 9, 08:58 AM	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.607	$1,830	— (SELL)
Jul 8, 09:18 PM	Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	BUY NO	0.900	$3,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 04:33 PM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.861	$3,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 12:48 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?	SELL NO	0.820	$2,557	— (SELL)
Jul 8, 06:50 AM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	SELL NO	0.721	$2,308	— (SELL)
Jul 8, 01:44 AM	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.617	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 01:17 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	BUY NO	0.850	$2,117	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 12:28 AM	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.945	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 10:16 PM	Switzerland vs. Colombia: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?	BUY YES	0.712	$2,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 09:52 PM	Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?	SELL YES	0.886	$3,453	— (SELL)
Jul 7, 09:47 PM	Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.770	$3,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 09:45 PM	Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?	SELL YES	0.730	$2,212	— (SELL)
Jul 7, 09:40 PM	Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.660	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:58 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	BUY YES	0.930	$26.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:53 PM	Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.703	$3,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 12:40 AM	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?	BUY YES	0.640	$3,923	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 12:36 AM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.328	$1,857	— (SELL)
Jul 7, 12:36 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?	SELL NO	0.858	$2,145	— (SELL)
Jul 7, 12:36 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL NO	0.886	$3,258	— (SELL)
Jul 7, 12:12 AM	United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY NO	0.602	$1,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 10:45 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	SELL NO	0.838	$1,954	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 10:37 PM	Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.858	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:44 PM	Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.610	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 07:26 PM	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?	BUY NO	0.710	$1,365	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 07:25 PM	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?	SELL NO	0.825	$1,793	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 02:52 AM	Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	SELL NO	0.910	$1,097	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 02:51 AM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	SELL NO	0.920	$3,067	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 02:50 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.890	$6,740	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 01:56 AM	Will England win on 2026-07-05?	SELL YES	0.570	$7,404	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 01:53 AM	Will England win on 2026-07-05?	BUY YES	0.580	$7,533	—
Jul 6, 01:48 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	SELL NO	0.962	$5,771	— (SELL)
Jul 5, 09:58 PM	Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?	SELL YES	0.999	$3,545	— (SELL)
Jul 5, 09:42 PM	Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?	BUY YES	0.620	$2,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 07:08 PM	United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY NO	0.778	$2,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 06:34 PM	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	BUY NO	0.900	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 10:27 PM	Mexico vs. England: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY NO	0.836	$2,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 10:27 PM	Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY NO	0.790	$2,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 07:41 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	SELL NO	0.560	$1,197	— (SELL)
Jul 4, 07:14 PM	Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY NO	0.810	$2,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 03:23 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	SELL NO	0.585	$1,695	— (SELL)
Jul 4, 02:46 PM	Paraguay vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY NO	0.870	$3,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 02:41 PM	Canada vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY NO	0.850	$2,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 11:13 AM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.353	$2,000	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 4, 01:53 AM	Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?	BUY YES	0.860	$1,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 11:36 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	SELL NO	0.996	$4,202	— (SELL)
Jul 3, 11:35 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	SELL YES	0.520	$1,182	— (SELL)
Jul 3, 11:21 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	BUY YES	0.660	$1,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 06:08 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	BUY NO	0.840	$1,430	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 06:07 PM	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	SELL NO	0.594	$1,438	— (SELL)
Jul 3, 05:03 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	BUY NO	0.920	$1,300	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 05:02 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	SELL NO	0.972	$2,298	— (SELL)
Jul 3, 01:22 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	BUY NO	0.839	$2,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 01:21 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?	SELL NO	0.971	$3,073	— (SELL)
Jul 2, 05:23 PM	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?	BUY NO	0.690	$1,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 09:18 AM	Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	BUY NO	0.810	$1,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 08:53 AM	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	BUY NO	0.694	$2,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 08:53 AM	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	BUY NO	0.620	$1,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 08:52 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL NO	0.730	$1,159	— (SELL)
Jul 1, 09:16 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?	BUY NO	0.849	$1,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 09:13 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	SELL NO	0.940	$3,045	— (SELL)
Jul 1, 07:01 PM	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	BUY YES	0.900	$2,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 06:54 PM	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	BUY NO	0.900	$2,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 01:27 PM	Will England win on 2026-07-01?	BUY YES	0.770	$1,700	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 12:54 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	BUY NO	0.679	$2,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 12:51 PM	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	BUY NO	0.890	$2,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 12:48 PM	Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	BUY NO	0.930	$2,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 12:47 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.810	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

60 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Finance	13	$59.8K	$-10,762
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Other	1	$26.6K	+$26.6K
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	Other	6	$19.5K	+$5,459
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	Tech	5	$18.8K	$-4,837
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?	Other	4	$17.6K	$-1,118
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Other	5	$17.2K	$-5,633
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	Other	4	$14.9K	+$64
Will England win on 2026-07-05?	Other	2	$14.9K	+$130
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	Other	5	$12.2K	$-2,317
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	Other	4	$11.8K	+$221
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Other	5	$11.7K	+$3,179
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	Other	2	$11.4K	$-1,427
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	Other	4	$11.1K	$-1,725
Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Other	4	$10.7K	$-665
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Finance	4	$9,835	$-1,835
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?	Crypto	5	$9,538	$-1,538
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?	Crypto	4	$8,401	+$330
France vs. England: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Other	2	$7,944	$-344
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Other	4	$7,801	$-2,601
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Other	2	$6,856	+$6,856
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Tech	1	$5,771	$-5,771
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?	Other	2	$5,745	$-1,345
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?	Crypto	2	$5,600	$-556
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?	Other	1	$5,331	+$5,331
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	Politics	1	$5,000	+$5,000
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Tech	3	$4,597	+$2,403
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?	Other	2	$4,573	$-1,573
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	Tech	2	$4,498	$-98
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Tech	2	$4,417	$-4,417
Will France vs. England end in a draw?	Other	1	$4,185	$-4,185

Showing top 30 by volume.